The U.S. Loss of Innovation

Competitive advantage can come in many forms: strategic, tactical, even financial. The U.S. is slowly loosing its competitive advantage in each category, the most recent being the U.S. loss of competitive advantage in innovation:

The report by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation found that the United States ranked sixth among 40 countries and regions, based on 16 indicators of innovation and competitiveness. They included venture capital investment, scientific researchers, spending on research and educational achievement.

Americans were given a great opportunity with the country, and they are slowly pissing it away.

Look at the Big..uh..Building

Um, okay. The architect who designed this did NOT have a complex.

Maybe these guys were protesting having a big phallic symbol in their city?

Autos & Cells: It's About Replacement

The title of this article is misleading ("Wireless industry feeling resistant to global economic downturn") but gets it right in the main body:

The wireless industry is not immune to the downturn. Handset operators from Nokia to Motorola are cutting jobs. So is chipmaker Intel and software giant Microsoft.
Given the fact so many people already have cellphones in their pockets, analysts say handset sales could drop by as much as 20 to 30 per cent this year

Cellphones are like cars: everyone has one and they need one. The health of the industry (and sales) will depend on how often people replace them. And this is where the cellphone industry is much more resistant to a downturn than car makers: people can drive their present car almost forever, but they won't keep their cellphone all that long.

There are a variety of reasons that people will - sooner rather than later - replace or upgrade their phone, ranging from fashion to new features to just wearing out. And while a lot of people will hold out longer, the fact is that a pretty good new cellphone can be had for less than $100 (with the contract). And as long as people keep talking and needing monthly contracts, they will put down a few bucks on a new phone.

In the mean time, the phone makers are trying to increase penetration into more secondary (tertiary?) markets with very low cost phones that still have lots of features (Nokia talks about the "second billion cellphone users").

Overall I would say that the excesses in the industry will be rung out (someone will have to buy Mot), and there will be plenty of job losses and pain, but the industry will stabilize faster than many other segments.

Free Advice to Today's Tech Start-Ups

As I head to the Mobile World Congress tradeshow this week, I have a free word of advice for the few small companies I know heading there: viability is as important as productability. That is, these days your marketing program needs not only promote your product, but promote how you are going to stay in business.

The WSJ headlined the problem with tech start-ups these days:

The deepening recession is speeding up the shakeout in Silicon Valley, forcing droves of start-ups to shut down or sell themselves at fire-sale prices.

No matter how good your product is, the big guys are not going to invest time, people or resources if they think you are going to be out of business tomorrow. And if you think the big guys are going to keep you bailed out, think again. Nokia's stated strategy is to push costs down to their supply chain, Samsung's aquisitions in the last decade can be counted on one hand, and Mot itself is probably going out of business.

You need a plan that shows how you will independently stay afloat as you work with the big guys to get your product into production and into the supply chain. Without this your product will be nothing but a curiosity.

Blogging at 28,000 Feet

I am one of Southwest's "test planes" for in-flight wi-fi. Not bad. A little slow and I got kicked off once, but probably no different that being in an average coffee shop.

During test marketing it is free, but it will be a paid item once it rolls out. This is a nice feature for quick flights to get a few emails out before you get to your meeting, but where it really is needed is for long-haul flights when you need to kill 10-12 hours.

What He Said: WSJ OpEd on Stimulus and Inflation

Open up your wallet and take out a dollar. Look at it. It's just a piece of paper. That's all. It's a store of wealth because our government says it is. And what happens if everyone stops believing the government? At that point point that piece of paper becomes just a piece of paper - good for writing, maybe personal hygiene. Which is what happened in Zimbabwe.

With the upcoming passage of the spendulus package, our government is about to send money into the economy that won't create jobs or create more "wealth" - because printing more paper doesn't generate wealth. The result, as this OpEd in the WSJ details, will be inflation. Because foreign governments aren't going to be giving us their money (by buying our bonds) so we are going to have to print it. And printing more of it will devalue it. The result is inflation.

Why I Like CEOs to Make Big Salaries

Do you really think today's announcement about salary caps for "bailed out" firms is the end of the matter? Once the government gets its hands into something it doesn't let go - it pushes them deeper. So this is going to spread.

I make far less than $500K and never expect to be even near that level of compensation in my lifetime. So why does this bother me? Because I WANT my CEO to make as much as possible because:

- The more my CEO makes, the more my Executive Vice President will ask for, and get
- The more my EVP makes, the more my VP will ask for, and get
- The more my VP makes, the more I can ask for, and get

And since I know what my CEO and EVP make, I can guess what my VP makes. And based on what my boss makes, I know where I can take my salary. The lower my CEO's pay, the lower each rung in the ladder will go.

So this salary cap not only caps the CEO's pay, it caps everyone in the organization.

Welcome to Socialism.

More Thoughts To Keep You Awake At Night

Geo-Political Hot Spots of 2009.

Nothing you didn't already know, but hits home that economic crises plus cheap oil plus unstable regimes means that we are for some bad $%#(.