Tuesday, July 13, 2004

Tech Sector Slowdown?

A couple of recent articles regarding the tech industry point towards a slowdown in a sector that has been red-hot since late last year:
Merrill, Goldman downgrade chip sector on oversupply risk

Analysts, Industry Executives Spar Over Outlook (link requires free subscription)
I'm with the analysts on this one.

From my perch in the tech market, I see it as a sector that is growing, but the level of growth has slowed. This lower growth has taken a lot of companies by surprise, who were planning for >10% growth when it's going to be more like 4-5%. This has created an over-inventory situation that is now working its way through the tech supply chain.

Now 4-5% growth isn't bad . It's when you have capital expenditures and inventory building assuming twice that amount that leads to all sorts of problems, so the downgrades in tech shares, in my opinion, are warranted for the time being.

Why, oh why, can't this industry do decent forecasts? In the 15 years I've worked it tech I have yet to see this industry do it right.

No comments: