Friday, October 03, 2003
The Conversation at Paramount
I watched this week's episode of "Enterprise" off my Tivo last night. After watching it, I figured there was a conversation at Paramount that went something like this:
Executive: What's our ratings on Enterprise?
Lackey: Sir, they haven't moved since the start of the new season.
Exec: Okay, put Blalock - what's her characters name, Tupoo?
Lacky: T'Pol, sir
Exec: Yes, T'Pok. Put her in a skimpier outfit
Lacky: Already did that sir.
Exec: Okay, show some more of her skin, and have her have some sort of intimate relationship with one of the beefcakes - I don't care which one.
Lacky: Already doing that sir. We are doing massage therapy with the character "Trip".
Exec: I see. And ratings still aren't up? Okay, well, we are going to have to pull out the stopper. Put in a lesbian scene. THAT will get the ratings up.
Lacky: Sir?
Exec: You heard me.
Lacky: But what about the sensors?
Exec: Well, not real lesbian sex, but some "alien" format where it isn't sex, per se, but our audience gets it.
Lacky: You're brilliant, sir! We'll get right on it.
Thursday, October 02, 2003
The Immutable Laws of Consumer Electronics?
Is there such a thing? Here are a few suggestions:
- Integration will always Increase (essentially a restatement of Moore's Law)
- Size and Weight will Always Decrease (ditto). Maybe a corollary to this that devices will become portable.
- Cost of Storage Will Always Decrease (Moore's law covers various RAM and Flash devices and a lot of writers have suggested a Moore's law for magnetic and optical storage)
- Analog will move to Digital (audio moved from tapes to CDs, video from VHS to DVD. Moves are afoot for digital TV and radio. Is digital power in our future?)
- Moving parts will be eliminated when at all possible (which is why magnetic storage is removed from devices whenever solid state storage is able to replace it). Another aspect of this, however, is the MEMS movement, which is going to try to do to mechanical devices what semiconductor manufacturing has done with electronic devices: shrink and integrate.
- Monochrome will move to color (photographs, TVs, printers, PDA displays, Gameboys, cellphone screens)
- Wired to wireless
- Gilder would suggest a law on bandwidth (I actually think he tried to promote a "Gilder's Law" for broadband to compete with Moore in silicon)
- Gates would put one on personalized content (non-recordable media to recordable media being but one aspect)
- Styling is increasingly important - In portable electronics styling has become more and more a differentiating feature. Cellphones are as much a fasion accessory as a tool for communication. Ditto MP3 players. I think laptops have a segment in this area. Apple is probably the only player who has done a good job on this in the desktop area.
- My personal one on the list is DirectorMitch's Law: Consumer electronics and the components that make them in the long term are all commodities and making money on either is VERY hard
This last case is why we have such a large emphasis on branding and a rush to streamline manufacturing and operations ("I'm sorry, we just sent your job to India"). There is no difference between an HP and a Dell computer - they use all the same components from the same suppliers. The winner will be the one who has the most efficient operations and the best sales channels to move the equipment (the brand helps the channel).
Any others?
Hold the Presses!
Home-Heating Bills May Rise in Winter
Or they may not. Why does this stuff get posted as "news"?
There Goes the Neighborhood
N. Korea Says It Is Making Nuclear Bombs
Will be interesting to see if this is true. NK has a history of blustering and saber rattling to get what they want (which worked under Clinton), and if true this time, could create a very interesting dynamic in the region:
Japan - Japan can build a nuclear arsenal in less time than it takes to come out with the next DVD player. They have threatened to do just this if NK built bombs.
China - China does NOT want a re-armed Japan. Most Americans are pretty ignorant of Japanese colonialism and the "Greater East Asia Prosperity Sphere" they created in the early part of the 20th century (Pearl Harbor through WWII is about it), but the Asians have not forgotten, especially China, which bore the hardest brunt of Japanese occupation.
China is NK's last protector, but for how long? NK is nothing but a drain on resources, but China has a history of wanting only friendly states on their borders - and an ally (united Korea)of the U.S. on its border is not desirable. South Korea on the other hand has literally billions of dollars of investment in China (as does the U.S.)
I think China's long-term strategy on Taiwan also plays into this.
South Korea - I just can't figure this country out. Sort of like the saying about remarriage, it is the triumph of hope over experience.
One of the most brutal dictatorships in history is on its border. NK is essentially a giant concentration camp where mass starvation, executions and oppression are the norm. It has shown over and over again that it will not honor its treaties. Yet SK thinks of them as long-lost brothers and assume they won't be attacked (again). The official policy is one of appeasement ("Sunshine Policy") and my experience in that country is that most people just pretend NK doesn't exist (I was there when a number of provocations by NK were going on - short-term movement of NK planes into SK airspace, temp movement of NK troops into the DMZ, etc. and it didn't even raise an eyebrow with anyone there)
U.S. - So what is our interest in Southeast Asian affairs? Obviously we have strong ties to Japan, and essentially provide its military protection. We are still manning the DMZ in South Korea, which saw itself go from a backward agricultural country to a growing industrial giant while under our protection (Japan was already industrialized when we occupied it). And we want to contain China to prevent it from invading Taiwan.
I would also argue that we have a humanitarian interest in stopping the brutal oppression of the NK people.
Russia - Hard to say. They want a check on China as well as the U.S. One would think they also don't want the proliferation of WMD.
Will be interesting to see how all this plays out.
Hey, this is the same as the greater Los Angeles Area
General: 3 to 6 GIs Dying in Iraq a Week
If you look at the largest metropolitan areas - New York, LA, Houston, D.C. - you will see they each average over 300 murders a year, close to one a day. Just something to think about.
Wednesday, October 01, 2003
The Tolerant Left
Guess what? Three democratic candidates believe that anyone who doesn't agree with them should be barred from the airwaves (see update below).
On Wednesday, Democratic presidential candidates Wesley Clark, Howard Dean and Al Sharpton urged ESPN to fire Limbaugh.
If you missed it, Limbaugh said that one particular quarterback is under-appreciated by the media and the NFL due to his race...oh wait... it wouldn't have been a problem if he said that.
He said that a particular quarterback is OVERAPPRECIATED because of his race, and it set up a fire storm. (Is it true? I have no idea since I stopped following professional sports years ago, but not likely since sports is one of the few areas where it is truely a meritocracy. We do know, however, that some organizations are giving minorities a pass as shown by the recent example of the New York Times Blair incident). But Rush is entitled to his opinion, ESPN is entitled to hire whomever they want, and viewers are entitled to watch someone else if they so choose.
So as president, Dean would force people he disagrees with or made, in his opinion, "offensive comments" off the air? Okay, okay, this is campaign pandering to a part of the electorate, but recall the uproar when Ari Fleischer recommended that the press not be critical after 9-11.
The bottom line is that government should butt out of matters of the press, and this practice should start when they are still candidates.
Update:Even as I write this, Fox is announcing that Rush "resigned" from ESPN (asked to resign is the most likely scenario). This is ESPN's decission to make, hopefully more from feedback from their viewers and advertisers than from politicians.
ESPN's ratings were up 10% with Rush, so it will be interesting to see what this decision does, either positive or negative.