The Iraqi Telethon
Iraq Rebuilding Money Short of $56B Goal ...that gives me an idea...

Lights, Action!

Powell:Welcome and thanks for tuning in! As you can see by the staffers behind us, we have lots of people waiting to take your call, and if you call now with a donation of $500 million to $2 billion dollars, we have all sorts of great gifts. Why don't you tell them about them, Condoleezza?

Rice: Thanks Colin. Those countries that call in with that size donation can get an Over the Horizon Radar. Now these devices were banned by several treaties not too long ago, but with the U.S. pulling out of SALT, everything's fair game, and I tell you that you do not want to be the last one on your continent to have one of these babies.

Powell: Oh, that got the phones ringing. Condi, what about those countries who can't afford a pledge of that amount? I'm sure we can scramble up some sort of gift for them, can't we?

Rice: That's right, Colin. Those countries giving between $10 million and $500 million can receive their pick of an F-16 Tomcat or a Patriot missile System. Now these are hot items and are going fast, so I urge everyone to call in as soon as possible with their pledge while supplies last.

Powell: And what about our Third World friends, Condi. I'm sure they would like to give something, even if it's just a little.

Rice: Well, Colin, pledges under $10 million get this signed picture from Donald Rumsfeld. Beautifully framed, it comes with a written promise to get a personal phone call before grinding your insignificant little country into dust.

Powell: Well, Condi, with all the little dictators and despots out there, this is sure to become a hot collector's item, especially those who would like to pass it on to the next in line to the throne or generalship.

Okay folks, we are just getting started and have only 20 more hours to go. Up next for entertainment we will demonstrate a low-yield tactical nuclear mortar that can wipe out bunkers as far as 300 feet deep - just a friendly reminder of some of the items we can use against people who really piss us off...


posted by Director_Mitch @ 5:48 PM (Permalink)
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It's An Improving Economy, Stupid (Long Post)
Although I am a Window Manager, I do have some responsibilities. One of those is to track econometric data and forecast how it's going to effect my Company so it can make investment and hiring decisions in the U.S.

The way I think about this is to consider the economy as a funnel. The top part of the funnel is the U.S. Economy, which if it does well, flows money into the key industrial areas, which then buys products from my Company.



Likewise if there is no money in the economy, the chances of money "trickling down" to my product are lower (the economy could do well and our major segments not, but this is just a general model which I would then break out any segment specific issues). So using this model, I do an analysis using the following steps:

Step 1 - U.S. Economic Picture
In order to get a U.S. forecast I track ten U.S. economic indicators on a monthly basis. There are a variety of places for these, but one site that has good historical data is Neat Ideas. I am not going to list all of them, but there are the "big two" which are posted and commented on incessantly by the mainstream press: GDP and unemployment.



There is no doubt the U.S. economy is growing, with 4Q03 estimates on the order of 4%, which makes it surprising that we have fools like Gephardt saying this is the "worst economy since the depression". The reason that he can get away with some of this rhetoric is the unemployment picture, which hasn't kept up with economic growth.

There have been a variety of explanations for this issue ranging from the fact the unemployment is a lagging indicator to the issue of structural changes in manufacturing. However, I think the next two graphs provide some good insight on the issue. The first shows that U.S. industrial output is picking up. The second explains why unemployment is still lagging: productivity - the amount of goods output over labor input, has skyrocketed recently, meaning that businesses have increased output while holding labor steady.




While there has been sideways movement of manufacturing, it is up significantly over the last few quarters, along with an increase in productivity. The question is: how long can businesses keep up this productivity increase? The answer to this question indicates when hiring will start significantly improving.

Based on the other six indicators I track and other forecasts, I estimate that the hiring picture will improve significantly in the 2Q of 2004, just in time for the elections.

Step 2 - My Company's Major Industries
My Company participates in the high-tech field, but its major markets are Personal Computers (PCs), cellphones and consumer electronics. While these products by and large are not manufactured in the U.S., purchasing decisions, pricing and purchasing volumes are made here. In addition, the U.S. is one of the largest markets for these products, so tracking the U.S. demand will point to where these segments are going.

In the PC market, consensus estimates all have the market seeing a recovery this year with several years of volume growth being forecasted.


In the cellphone market, after a flat two years after the 2001 implosion, forecasts keep being revised upward every several months"


The other area I look at is the electronics supply chain, which includes semiconductors ("computer chips") and printed circuit boards (PCBs). Both have shown dramatic improvement lately in their Book to Bill (BB) ratios, which is the ratio of new orders over shipments. Anything over 1.0 means that companies are seeing more orders than they are currently shipping.


The only indicator lagging is semiconductor equipment, meaning that capacity in the manufacturing plants ("fabs") are still not 100%. Estimates of capacity utilization are currently 80% and a continued improvement in semiconductor production should raise the equipment BB above 1 in the first part of next year.

Step 3 - My Company's Products
The next step I take is to look at data for my Company's particular products (I actually try to do a full Porter Model which analyzes all aspects of my industry, but I am trying to keep this posting somewhat brief).

For my particular products, I have already seen great improvement in volume demand based on the upswing in the markets I outlined above. The one area which has prevented my company from improving it's top line is Average Sales Price (ASP), which has seen significant erosion over the past two years.

However, the tide seems to be turning there as well. As volume increases in the above segments and manufacturing capacity tightens at my Company and its competitors, I have seen all our major customers scrambling to lock in long-term volume contracts, meaning they are locking in pricing

In addition, in my particular market and in some associated markets, there have been areas of spot shortages, which is probably another reason purchasing managers are looking to lock in contracts.

Step 4 - Conclusions
Based on this analysis, I have provided the following conclusions to my Masters:
1. The U.S. economy is growing. Growth will continue accelerate in 2004 and employment will start showing significant improvement by the second quarter.
2. All Major Markets that we participate in are showing volume growth and will continue to have growth in 2004.
3. ASPs, which have been the weak point in growing our top line revenue so far in 2003, are stabilizing due to tightening of manufacturing capacity in our market. This fact means that we should be able to grow both volume and revenue in 2004
4. Based on these conclusions, both expansion and hiring should be planned for the coming fiscal year.

Step 5 - Personal Conclusions
The above analysis is a part of my job, which I am judged on, so the analysis was done as impartially as possible since a huge screw-up will likely make me an unemployed Window Manager.

Based on what I see, however, I don't see the economy being a big stick for the democrats in next year's election. There are certainly other issues which Bush will be weak, but the economy - probably the biggest issue for the out-of-power party - won't be a large factor.



posted by Director_Mitch @ 10:00 AM (Permalink)
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A Fair Accounting of Ukrainian Genocide?
Everyone knows about the Holocaust. While there are a few kooks out there that deny it happened, the vast majority of the world is horrified at the mass extermination of millions of people by the Nazis. Nazis to this day are hunted down. People who even hint that they approve of Nazis are shunned from polite society, have no chance to win any major election and couldn't hold a job anywhere where they are in the public eye, such as television or the press.

On the other hand very few people know about the Mass Starvation created in the Ukraine by the Soviet Union under Stalin. Over 5 million people were systematically starved while their food was taken and exported to Russia.

A total of 20 million people were systematically murdered under Soviet Communism in mass executions and deportations to the Gulag where they were worked to death - about 4 million more than the Nazis.

Like the Holocaust deniers, there were those who denied the Ukrainian forced starvation happened, but instead of being portrayed as kooks, they work for the New York Times and win Pulitzers. One in particular was Walter Duranty, who wrote during the 1930s. Today there is documentation that he knew positively what was going on in the Ukraine, but wrote articles for the Times denying it was going on so he could continue to have "access" to Stalin (sound familiar? CNN did the same thing with Saddam).

There has been an ongoing movement to revoke the Pulitzer and it has been an uphill fight. The hypocrisy of the matter is that if it had been awarded to a Holocaust denier, it would have been revoked years ago.

Another movement is underway in Congress to condemn the Ukrainian Genocide. Congressional Resolution 254 was introduced on the 70th anniversary of the mass starvation to condemn Russia and Stalin for Crimes Against Humanity. The bill has met resistance and is actively being lobbied against by the Russian Embassy.

Question: would a similar bill condemning the Holocaust have any issues passing? What would be U.S. reaction if the German embassy lobbied against it?

More people were systematically killed under Stalin than Hitler, but those who approve of Communism hold jobs in media. Many politicians in Europe serve openly as Communists. Polls conducted in Russia today show high approval ratings of Stalin. Former Soviet gulag guards talk openly of human atrocities committed under their watch while Nazi Concentration Camp guards are hunted down 50 years later. Why do Communists get a free pass when it comes to Genocide?

posted by Director_Mitch @ 8:56 AM (Permalink)
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RIP Rerun
Rerun, of What's Happening has died.



The sad part is I actually watched his show in probably some of the most wasted time of my childhood. Even sadder is that I remember the two "famous" episodes mentioned in the obit.

In my defence I will remind everyone that in the mid-70s households had SIX (6) TV stations (big 3, PBS, 2 UHF) and I wasn't exactly reading novels just yet. Computers? Video Games? Internet? Man, today's kids have it easy when it comes to entertainment.

And my first thought that came through my head when I read this: Not too surprising he died already considering his weight....

Okay, today was fluff postings... I post on Rerun and stupid internet quizzes when we have items ranging from partial birth abortions, the President's Asia trip, ongoing Democratic stupidity, and so on. But sometimes you just gotta take a break.



posted by Director_Mitch @ 5:47 PM (Permalink)
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Window Manager Unaffected by DOS Attack
As most in the Blogosphere know by now, there was a Denial of Service (DOS) attack that shut down many of the most popular and linked sites including Instapundit, Dailypundit and many others.

Instapundit posted the effect of the DOS attack for reference, so I posted the same graph for Window Manager. I am happy to say that this site, like Instapundit, is up and servicing its loyal readers - both of you.


posted by Director_Mitch @ 8:42 AM (Permalink)
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Cheapskate "Test"
Mrs. Director would be very surprised that I came out "well balanced"

Take Are you a cheapskate?

posted by Director_Mitch @ 8:26 AM (Permalink)
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No Such Thing as Foolproof Security
...if anything in this life is certain - if history has taught us anything - it's that you can kill anybody - Michael Corleone, Godfather II

...all someone needs is a willingness to trade his life for the President's... - Frank Horrigan (Clint Eastwood), from In the Line of Fire

These quotes came to mind as I read the story and discussions over the recent "compromising" of airport security where a college student snuck boxcutters past airline security onto two Southwest Airline flights. There was the predictable political response that "someone should be fired" and other finger pointing towards the TSA, Homeland Security and other agencies.

The fact of the matter is that there is no foolproof security system, especially when it comes to public transportation. It is a physical impossibility to screen every passenger, every piece of luggage. By default this means it's possible to get contraband onto an airplane.

This issue points out the fallacy of our current airport security - focusing only on the weapons rather than also trying to screen the people who would use them. As the above quotes point out, there is no foolproof security system, even when all you're guarding is one man. This is why the Secret Service takes seriously any "threats" made against the President and canvasses locations for known loonies days before a President arrives on the scene. The Service profiles and keeps close tabs on anyone who they think might want to hurt the President.

The same can't be said for normal Americans who travel. We have to rely on a system designed to catch every weapon that comes through it, when this is, in fact, a physical impossibility. A better method - to do additional screening of those whose profile matches those who have done harm in the past - has been deemed "bad" in our society, making us less safe.

Box cutters don't down airplanes, Muslim extremists down airplanes. The student who snuck the weapons had no intent to harm, making the box cutters innocuous devices. On the other hand, innocuous devices can kill - a metal ball point pen can be stuck into the jugular. It's people who want to terrorize and kill Americans using any tactic available that we need to stop. If we stop them, the periodic stories of contraband getting through (and this will never end) will continue to be college students with an axe to grind rather than someone who wants to create real harm.


posted by Director_Mitch @ 12:00 PM (Permalink)
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Want to Feel Old?
I'm in my mid 30s and remember the first video games; I remember the first time I saw "Asteroids", "Space Invaders" and other (now) classics. I then watched this industry mature, coming into my home as an Atari console, saw it get surpassed by Odyssey, later by Nintendo.

So the geniuses (and I mean this literally) at Electronic Gaming Monthly got a bunch of today's kids raised on Grand Theft Auto, put them in a room and made them play some 20 year old "classic games" (including Hand Held Football which I thought was SO cool). The results are hilarious and if you remember the classics as an original gamer, this article is for you (watch out for pop-ups from this site).

Hat Tip: email from rorschach at ScarySharp

posted by Director_Mitch @ 5:58 PM (Permalink)
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Is Big Press Finally Getting It?
Here's a link to an interview from an editor at the San Jose Mercury News about the recent California Recall. Key quote:

"We -- the media -- are increasingly disconnected from what people are talking about," Goldberg told journalists at the Associated Press Managing Editors association's annual conference, which kicked off Wednesday. "I'm not sure exactly what to do to solve it."


Big Media has been disconnected from the U.S. population from some time. Heavily weighted by bi-coastal liberals, the press is disconnected from normal working families who are just trying to hold their jobs, make their mortgage and raise a family. Referring to anywhere outside the liberal bastions of SF and NYC as "flyover country", these people expect the population they collectively dismiss to swallow lock, stock and barrel the skewed point of view emanated by the major networks and newspapers and then become shocked - shocked! - when they are no longer listened to. They watch in horror as a network conforming closer to American Values (Fox) gains market share. They claim to be "impartial" while slamming the War on Terror, the War on Iraq and never meeting a tax increase they didn't like.

For the press to "solve it", they have to understand that families are overtaxed. That we are tired of politicians pandering to special interests. That we are at war with Muslim extremism. We can disagree about how to address these issues, but to dismiss them - or more accurately, to actively take the opposing side - will leave them outside the mainstream for some time.


Hat Tip: Lost Remote

posted by Director_Mitch @ 11:03 AM (Permalink)
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Monday Personality Test - Which Democratic Candidate Are You?
For my Monday Personality test, I decided to roll my own: Which Democratic Candidate Are You?

Some notes:
- In order to keep it short, it really isn't possible to get an answer of each candidate (and I didn't even do one for Gephardt)
- There is, however, a link at the end of the quiz that will show you all possible answers
- The site I used to create this - Quizilla - can run slow at times
- If anyone has additional questions that should be on the test, let me know

Enjoy!

posted by Director_Mitch @ 12:01 AM (Permalink)
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I'm a Slimy Mollusk!
Truth Laid Bear ranks blogs, based on traffic. I am actually surprised to see myself above a single cell organism.

Alas, I haven't (yet) made Sling and Arrow's Primate Promotion Project, which he is still continuing...

posted by Director_Mitch @ 12:57 PM (Permalink)
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Trying Out "Social Networking"
I have been reading about "Social Networking" applications for a while, most notably a few articles at TechDirt and others which have pointed out that there is a funding "bubble" in this space. My opinion was that I didn't see a revenue or profit stream from this market since it is used mainly for "socializing" and would have problems finding an application in business. While dating services can make money, I don't see VCs getting a return on their investment by this segment becoming a giant revenue maker. They are likely hoping that Yahoo, Google and the other main portals will buy into this space to increase their traffic flow (like Google's purchase of Blogger, which you are currently reading), but if these companies become interested, it will be a make versus buy decision and I am doubtful that the VCs will see a 10x return on their investment.

I was invited this weekend to join Friendster and since I was spouting opinions about its market, I thought I would join and check it out.

My first impression is the same as before I joined: it looks like a good way to meet people for socializing and to fill your Little Black Book. It is also probably a good way to hook up with people with similar hobbies, especially those that require a lot of people like Civil War Re-enactment. However, its usefulness as a business tool is questionable, at best.

I will give it some time and will invite some of my "friends" on board to get their opinion, but so far I see this as basically a dating service for young adults.

Some of the "friends" registered on the site are people having fun. There are at least a few cars looking for others to "rev their engines". Sweden, Countryof is also a member. Since this whole concept goes back to "Six Degrees to Kevin Bacon", several Kevins are also on the site, proving that, indeed, there are only six people between you and him.


posted by Director_Mitch @ 12:42 PM (Permalink)
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