No Postings Until Monday
I am off for my MBA Ten Year Reunion (where did the time go?), so won't be blogging again until Monday. While my high school 10 year reunion was depressing and a waste of time (20th is coming up!), I expect the MBA reunion to be a good networking opportunity and a chance to see a few people in person that I see only every few years, but regularly trade emails and phone calls with.

If both my Readers find they are missing me, try a few of the links to the right, which I recently updated.

posted by Director_Mitch @ 4:24 PM (Permalink)
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Searching for Emerging Markets
One of my jobs as a Window Manager is to look for "emerging markets". There are, I think, two basic ways to do this:



One way is to look at the technology coming out of the lab and figuring out what to do with it. The second way is to take a close look at what users and businesses want, and figure out how technology can deliver it. Since I am not a technologist (although I do have a technical degree), I usually use the second method to look for new markets.

However, as a great posting at the Venture Capital blog Due Diligence pointed out: The Next Big Thing sneaks up from behind while you're trying to do your work, kicks your ass, walks over you, and either rifles your pockets or drops gold into your hands. If it's gold, they write a story about it one day. The others you never hear about, unless you live here and know them personally . As they say, Go Read the Whole Thing.

Keeping that theme in mind - that the Next Big Thing really isn't predictable - here are a few of many trends I am currently looking at anyway:

1. Demographics - The U.S. will soon experience a large increase in the older population, creating more demand for healthcare and nursing facilities. Two areas that might benefit are medical delivery systems and robotics, which are already being tested in nursing and elder-care environments.

2. Entertainment - Entertainment consumption is going nowhere but up, and how entertainment is delivered is one area I am looking at, such as wireless connections between the TV and PC, and how users control and interact with their entertainment (3D control systems that use MEMS gyroscopes, for example). I also throw gambling into the entertainment mix, and that is another area where our children will do it in ways we never imagined (such as gambling via cellphone).

3. Security & Safety - The 9-11 disaster and aftermath has already produced a flurry in funding for security technologies, although this area is probably over-subscribed by venture capitalists at this time. This area ranges from biometrics - identifying people on anything from fingerprints to DNA to face recognition - to secure printing technologies for passports.

4. Supply-Chain Control - Following leaders such as Dell and Wal-Mart, U.S. companies are looking for ways to closely link and monitor their supply chain, which is one of the largest drivers of Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology today. I could write pages on what is going on in RFID, its implementation, and those that oppose it, but suffice to say that this is a technology that will be everywhere in 10 years, replacing the bar codes on all the items at the grocery store, tracking your luggage through airports, and tracking packages through our private and public delivery systems.

Those are the "high level" trends. Then there are industry specific trends, such as the write-up I did about the car, which is changing from a mechanical system to an electrical system, and other industry specific areas which are driving emerging markets.

These are only just a few - there are a lot of other demographic, societal and industry specific trends driving emerging products that I don't cover - I just look at those areas where my company has a core competency, giving me a market scope which is digestible. Otherwise I could spend years analyzing all sorts of trends, just to see the Next Big Thing pass me by.


posted by Director_Mitch @ 4:17 PM (Permalink)
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Early Monday Personality Test
I usually do these on Monday, except when I do them on Friday, or another day of the week. This one is so cool, I just couldn't wait.



Which Founding Father Are You?



That's me!

Hat Tip: Cobb, which, if you haven't, you should check out. He has some sharp insight from, in his own words, a "Sorta Fair & Rather Balanced & Black & Republican & Civil Libertarian & Righteous & Uppity & Global Capitalist & Pro-Commons & Family Oriented & Provocative & Sometimes Worth Reading" guy.

posted by Director_Mitch @ 2:31 PM (Permalink)
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A Religion of Peace (Part CCLXIV)
2 Militants Blow Themselves Up in Mecca

Sort of reminds me of that scene from "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" when the minstrels sing about bravely running away. These guys peacefully murder infidels and peacefully terrorize anyone who disagrees with them. I just wish they would peacefully blow themselves up without harming anyone else.



posted by Director_Mitch @ 8:58 AM (Permalink)
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Why My State is Known For Wacked-Out Left-Wing Nut Jobs
Despite the efforts of my Bear Flag League brethren and sisters listed to the right (and on the right), wack jobs who pass measures like this really give the state a bad name. The measure, which passed, reads, and this is verbatim:

"Vote for Bolinas to be a socially acknowledged nature-loving town because to like to drink the water out of the lakes to like to eat the blueberries to like the bears is not hatred to hotels and motor boats. Dakar. Temporary and way to save life, skunks and foxes (airplanes to go over the ocean) and to make it beautiful."

Okay, other issues give California a bad reputation, but this is the stuff that gets the press.

I am a pretty well-read guy, but can anyone tell me what "Dakar" is?

posted by Director_Mitch @ 10:36 AM (Permalink)
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Convictions vs. Election Strategy
I have always considered myself a "free-trader". History has shown that free trade benefits all countries that participate and leads to long-term prosperity, even if it can bring short-term pain. As proof of the point, I owe my current salary to free trade and would see my present job vanish if strict protectionist policies were put in place.

Bush's signing of steel tariffs upset me as a matter of principle, but I understand why he did it: it was an olive branch to unions and steel workers in states that could swing either way in the next election: Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana and Ohio. I initially considered this political move a waste of time since no matter what he did the unions are not going to endorse him, but union members don't always vote in line with the leadership and I am not enough of a political strategist to really make this call.

I noticed today that these tariffs are up for renewal. My prediction is that they are left in place for the following reasons:

1. Bush's top priority is fighting terrorism and getting things stable in Iraq. He has shown willingness to compromise on other issues in order to get his priorities, and I agree these should be at the top.

2. The improving economy might let steel workers forget about tariffs in the long run, but on the other hand, producers who are paying higher steel prices are seeing price stability and a pick-up in demand for their products, so they will have the ability to pass on costs to the consumer. While we all end up paying for higher steel prices, an improving economy and income will mean that the $500 increase in that new car we are eyeing really won't effect our buying decision (the cost of financing is a better indicator of buying patterns in the auto industry).

3. These tariffs may become moot if struck down by the WTO, as pointed out in the article. So a savvy political move would be to sign them, get brownie points from union members, and watch it get cast aside by the WTO.

So if Bush extends these, he gets points from the union workers, but really doesn't lose the support of those who might be against tariffs on principle.

posted by Director_Mitch @ 9:47 AM (Permalink)
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How the Government Measures "Poverty"
While gathering some economic data for work today, I ran across the following on how the poverty level is calculated:

Money income - Includes earnings, unemployment compensation, workers' compensation, Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, public assistance, veterans payments, survivor benefits, pension or retirement income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, income from estates, trusts, educational assistance, alimony, child support, assistance from outside the household, and other miscellaneous sources.

Director Mitch: So far, so good.

Noncash benefits (such as food stamps and housing subsidies) do not count. (emphasis theirs)

Director Mitch: Okay, I am actually okay with this, although if someone else paid my food bill and housing, my disposable income would be, what, 30-40% more?

Excludes capital gains or losses.

Director Mitch: This means that those people with no income, but cashing out millions of dollars of stock are calculated to be "poor", but I will grant that this number will be statistically insignificant.

If a person lives with a family, add up the income of all family members. (Non-relatives, such as housemates, do not count.)

Director Mitch: WAIT. Does anyone see the problem with this? If Jenny shacks up (but doesn't marry) Bill, and Bill makes $40,000 and pays the rent, food, etc. while Jenny works part-time as a waitress, Jenny is counted in the "poor" statistics (this is a real-world example I know of, by the way). Sounds like we need to take the poverty graph and put it next to the "shack-up" graph. Taking the actual poverty graph and superimposing the "cohabitation" statistics from the Census Bureau (which was tough to find - note that I took the "Couples Living Together" and multiplied by 2 to get number of people), you get the following:




20 years ago the numbers of people cohabitating really didn't change the numbers since they were so few. With the changing definition of "family" in the U.S., however, it sounds like we need to change our statistics to represent the real picture of what is really going on.


posted by Director_Mitch @ 4:59 PM (Permalink)
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So, Arnold, Who's This Guy Behind Me?




Anyone have another caption?

posted by Director_Mitch @ 4:14 PM (Permalink)
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The Power of Protest
The Daily Pundit noted that CBS pulled their "mockumentary" of Reagan. As I got more and more details of this hit job, I got more and more upset. I realize not everyone was a fan of his, but to put outright lies into the script and to ignore his other accomplishments (fall of USSR happened because of what? Anyone? Anyone?) was nothing more than left-wing propaganda.

It's satisfying to see that because of negative publicity - perhaps partly due to the blogosphere - that this hit job has been pulled.

Update: Time to boycott Showtime and CBS, both owned by Viacomm. Reagan Miniseries to Air on Showtime

posted by Director_Mitch @ 9:58 AM (Permalink)
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The Power of Networking
It's a hackneyed saying that you find jobs and get ahead through networking, but as you go through your career you find over and over again how true this is.

One of my few job responsibilities is "business development", which is a catch-all phrase that might include joint development projects, talking to competitors, investments, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), emerging market development and usually a little bit of sales. This job function can be fun and exciting in the right environment, the only problem I have is that the half dozen or so investments, acquisitions and new market development projects I have brought to top management have simply been ignored - not even a "no", which is preferable to no feedback at all.

I am currently working on an strategic investment opportunity, but decided before pitching it to senior management that I would bring a few other investors to the table to make the project more appealing.

"Coopetition" - cooperation plus competition - is a phrase used in my industry to signify a company that you sell to, buy from AND compete with. Since a lot of the companies in the high-tech arena have divisions in multiple segments, this is more common than not, especially after there is a wave of mergers, divestitures and acquisitions.

I happen to know one of the SVPs (senior vice presidents) at one of our "coopetitors" from when we were both working at other companies and I gave him a call to see if he would be interested in the opportunity I discovered. He quickly declined my offer, saying they weren't looking in that area, but then said he had a job opening that I may be a good fit for and asked for my resume.

So I call this guy with one offer and he basically counters with a potential job offer. While not a great geographic fit, I am sending my resume to him to see where it goes.

If this goes forward, the dance should take about three months, with multiple opportunities for either side to pull out, change their mind, or decide they aren't interested. With the resume forwarded today, I figure the next round should be in about three weeks when I will hear back whether they want to move to the next stage or not.

I'll update here as this moves forward.

posted by Director_Mitch @ 8:59 AM (Permalink)
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It's Not Just the Overall Economy That's Improving
I noted in an earlier article on the improving economy and its effect on improving the high-tech sector. Today, more data has come out backing this analysis: Semiconductor Sales Surge as Economy Sizzles

As I noted in personal correspondence with Master of None, even jobs in high-tech are coming back. While many won't see the sky-high salaries of the boom years, there will be jobs available for those that don't have them and those that already have them will have a greater sense of job security.

In the past two weeks alone I have gotten two calls from headhunters. They had positions that didn't fit me geographically or in market segment, but it's just another indicator how things are improving.

And if the S&P500 hits 10,000 (it's within striking distance now), expect some more crowing.

posted by Director_Mitch @ 8:47 AM (Permalink)
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Monday "Personality" Test - And I Blew It
Okay, let's get something straight: I came of age in the 80s and love that decade. Reagan was a personal god. I wore top siders without socks, white pants and knit polos. I dated girls with big hair. And I still love that decade's music.

So when I found this 80s music test, I thought I would do pretty well. All you have is a song phrase with missing words and you have to fill in the blank. No band name. No song title. And ofcourse no melody.

I found it's HARD to come up with just the lyrics when you don't have any other information. Some of the ones that stumped me were embarrassingly easy once I knew the song or group.

Give it a try if you have time - it's 103 questions and you'll be sitting there trying to hum the tune in order to remember the words...



Hat Tip: Electric Venom

posted by Director_Mitch @ 8:15 AM (Permalink)
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Is the AP Calling Muslims Monkeys?
Actual AP Headline: Monkeys Terrorize India Workers, Tourists

Well, I knew from the headline that the AP was talking about simians since if someone had packed explosives onto himself and walked into a crowded bazaar and blew himself up the verb would have been "terrorize" in quotes or "alleged terrorist".

Unless these monkeys are taking hostages, blowing up airplanes or committing suicide bombings, it would appear that AP believes that animals being a nuisance is to "terrorize" while humans slaughtering innocents is something else.


posted by Director_Mitch @ 8:11 PM (Permalink)
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