The Window Manager
(Someone who has a fairly high level job with nothing to do - except look out the window).
So my Monday personality test is a little late this week, but I think it was worth the wait. And if you are what you drink, this test is spot on. I am going to be enjoying one of these shortly, so everyone have a good weekend and see you Monday.
Congratulations!! You're a smart sophisticated and
beautiful martini!!
What Drink Are You?
Hat Tip: The Cranky Professor
Maybe because I am a "director", maybe because I have the office next to the Big Guy in the corner suite, but I have had a small flow of cube dwellers coming by my office to get career advice lately (and I use the term "cube dweller" non-disparangingly since I was one myself for many years).
So what does a Window Manager have to say? Let's take a look at two of my young mentees:
"Lisa" works in accounts receivable and collections. She is bright, articulate and in her mid 20s. She started working straight out of high school in the warehouse of a major electronics distribution company and over the course of seven years worked her way onto the accounting staff before being laid off during the tech downturn. At that time she was making around $40K. We found her and wanted to bring her on, but had a budget of only $30K. Since the hiring manager knew her and really wanted her, we settled on $35K.
Lisa is ambitious and I think has the talent and skills to move further up the ladder in finance and accounting. I heard about an entry-level financial analyst position opening up at a near-by company that paid about $50K and I had a contact fairly high-up in the finance department. I helped her target her resume and sent it to my colleague along with a verbal recommendation.
Lisa isn't even being considered for the position for the main reason I feared: she doesn't have a college degree.
Even though she has more real-world financial experience than any kid coming out of college or even business school, she can't get a break. The main problem is the hiring manager has both a degree and an MBA and feels that anyone she hires for the position should at least have the same background.
Unless Lisa goes out and starts her own company, she is going to have to finish that degree if she wants to work her way up the ladder in a large corporate organization. It may not be fair, but that's just the way it works in the U.S. these days. She is working on her degree part time and I am encouraging her to get it done ASAP.
"Elliott" is a first tier manager overseeing an inside sales staff of three people. He came by my office to ask my advice about getting an MBA in order to move ahead.
Elliott is in his late 20s, makes about $50K, has a wife and kid, and is saving up for a down payment on a home in insanely expensive Southern California. A full-time MBA would take two years, take away from that nest egg he is building, and likely saddle him with school loans. Going part time while working at his present position isn't an option (just the way this particular company is).
We talked for a while. I told him I truly enjoyed working on my MBA since I liked the subject matter so much. However, I didn't learn anything in business school that I couldn't learn eventually in the normal course of business. I do think it changed how I think about business and basically gave me in a short time the experiences that would have taken over a decade.
Despite his present situation, we came to the conclusion that an MBA is probably the right choice as a long term investment, assuming he doesn't want to start his own business. An MBA opens more doors and puts you on a different plane when competing for jobs and promotions. For example, the position I now have would only consider MBAs during the interview process. In a similar sort of situation as Lisa above, just having experience wouldn't get you into the door. And while I may be a "window manager", I am highly compensated and have other "perques". And it certainly beats unemployment or slogging away at some mundane job at a much lower salary.
Since Elliott wants to stay with large corporate organizations, the MBA should definitely be a part of his career plan. I encouraged him, however, to look into executive and part-time programs if possible and work while getting his degree in order to help with the financial side of things (which is what I did - an "MBA" is all that matters and I have personally found that whether you go full time or the executive route doesn't matter).
I decided to put yesterday's announcement of GDP growth in perspective, so I created a chart to show some major political events mapped against our economy:
The California Insider posts that "Rob Reiner and the California Teachers Association are preparing to file a ballot measure for November, 2004 that would increase commercial property taxes by 55 percent and dedicate the money -- $4.5 billion annually -- to expanded pre-school and K-12 education."
"For education" is used almost as much as "for the children" as an excuse to raise taxes. After all, spending more money on education will make our kids smarter, right?
Wrong.
Study after study after study has shown that more money doesn't improve education. Here's a graph from the Heritage Foundation showing the real (inflation adjusted) spending on education and test scores.
Instapundit has a link to the Gender Genie, where you enter text - like a blog entry - and it tells you your sex (because I was sort of wondering...).
The little econo-slam entry below got a male score of 238 versus a female score of 58, so not even close (maybe I was being too snide and not "feeling" enough?).
The software says it works better on longer entries, so I put in the automotive entry two posts below. Again, my testosterone trumps my feminine side by nearly double with a Male Score of 1352 vs Female Score of 743.
Just another fun time waster like Iraqi Blackjack, which I found over at the Noble Pundit.
This has gotta hurt Al Frankin and his ilk:
GDP Jumps 7.2 Percent, Biggest Increase in Nearly 20 Years
Hopefully we can stop hearing from Dean, Gephardt and the others how this is the worst economy since the Great Depression. I was getting a little tired of the rhetoric when contradicting data is all around.
I don't mean electric car, one that runs on something besides gasoline - I mean electronic car, one that has it's mechanical systems replaced with electronic ones. A posting at Outside the Beltway got me thinking about the automobile and how it's changing from a hydraulic-mechanical device into an almost purely electronic device. This change is being forced by a variety of factors:
1. Economic - Even the casual observer will notice how electronics pricing has plummeted over the past 10 years. While most people observe that this change has resulted in cheaper and more powerful PCs and consumer electronics, many people miss out on the point that it also means that electrical systems can be used economically in areas where they have never been used before - such as mechanical systems.
2. Safety - Automobile fatalities are one of the leading causes of death in developed countries and a combination of consumer demand and government regulation have driven automobile manufacturers to develop new safety systems for cars. Invariably, these systems are electronic control systems that monitor and provide feedback to the driver or over the car itself. Examples include anti-lock brake systems (ABS) which need a microcontroller, air bags which need an accelerometer and microcontroller and Tire Pressure Controllers (TPS) which use sensors and potentially a wireless communication system.
3. Consumer Demand - Consumers want their cars to be easy to control, easy to operate, comfortable and entertaining. These demands have driven manufacturers to add a variety of systems to automobiles that actually have no direct effect on the car's driving - keyless entry systems, Global Positioning Systems (GPS), and power windows, just to name a few.
While there are several ways to segment these electronic systems, I have put them into the following four groups:
Infotainment - Entertainment and information systems for the driver. These include the mundane, such as the ubiquitous radio, but also include new systems such as "Telematics", of which OnStar is the currently the most popular system. Examples: Audio Deck, Satellite Radio (XM Radio, e.g.), GPS, Telematic Systems, in-car Video (including rear-seat entertainment), Networked Car (wireless links for everything from your cellphone output to your car speaker to internet connectivity)
Powertrain - refers to the system in a car that controls the actual movement of the vehicle, including engine management. Historically, these systems have been hydraulic or mechanical, but with the introduction of fuel injection engines and the need for exhaust control, electronics made their debut in the powertrain and over time have increased their presence: Examples: Engine Control Unit (ECU), Adaptive Cruise Control, Power Steering
Control & Comfort - Dashboard Cluster, Heads Up Display, Remote Keyless Entry, Climate Control, Power Seats & Windows
Safety - Anti-lock Brakes, Traction Control, Airbags, Electronic Brakes, Tire Pressure Controllers
These are all systems that are in cars today and don't include a large number of systems in test-cars or on the drawing board such as collision avoidance systems, drive-by-wire, and other innovations which will increase the electronic content even further.
These systems are adding to a steady increase in the amount of electronics in the average automobile, despite the fact that electronics are getting cheaper: 
So, what does this all mean?
o For the average consumer, it just means that your car will just become pretty darn nice, very safe, and much easier to control.
o The replacement of mechanical systems with electrical systems makes the car lighter, thus improving gas mileage.
o While more gas efficient, all these new systems require additional power that will not be manageable with the existing 12/14V battery system. According to Gartner, current 12/14V alternators can deliver up to 2 kilowatts of peak power, with the battery lending an additional 4 kilowatts peak power. A loaded, upscale vehicle could require as much as 12 kilowatts, and by 2010 this number could reach 20 kilowatts, fueling the need for higher voltages. Several manufacturers are exploring new battery and power systems for new cars which are likely to start hitting the street by the end of the decade.
o I would argue that as the average car becomes more electronic, that transitioning from the internal combustion engines to Hybrid Electrical Vehicles (HEV) or to full Electric Vehicles becomes easier from a design and manufacturing standpoint, and in consumer acceptance. The main issue in this area, however, will continue to be infrastructure.
o From a business standpoint, it means that those companies that are providing hydraulic and electrical systems need to diversify into electronics as soon as possible (this is not an issue with the vast majority of the "Tier 1" suppliers in this industry). In addition, it provides an opening for electronics providers who do not serve this market to get into one of the last, large manufacturing segments left in North America.
It should be remembered that the automotive industry is one of the largest industries in North America, contributing over 3% to the U.S. $10 Trillion Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and U.S. automakers collectively purchase nearly $120 billion of goods and services. Both domestic and foreign manufacturers have set up manufacturing or subassembly sites in nearly every state, and unlike other industries, U.S. domestic production is not going overseas. In fact, production in the U.S. is expected to increase by over a million units within the next five years to 17 million units. However, the U.S. percentage of worldwide production will decline somewhat, dropping from 29% in 2002 to 27% by 2007.
If possible, manufacturers should try to participate in this market, but certain structural changes taking place in the automotive supply chain are making this difficult, which I will go into more detail on a future posting.
One of the areas I have been remiss is adding links. I have added The Noble Pundit, who hosted this week's Carnival of the Capitalists, seems like a nice guy, and seems to have more posts on economics and business, which was one of my original goals for this blog (I seem to be posting more on politics lately). I have also added Pejmanesque, who always has posts that I wish I had come up with. I plan on adding Balloon Juice, but his site is currently down.
These links are the same as "My Favorites" function in Explorer since I come to my own home page to launch my daily blog reading. Generally speaking I prefer to read blogs that are right-of-center and have comment sections since a good comment discussion can be more fun than actually doing your own posts.
I at one time read left-wing sites, but they just got me foaming at the mouth so I stopped as a matter of mental health. Getting into flame wars in the comments section of Calpundit just isn't worth the time and effort (try arguing with someone whose idea of discussion is "Bush is Hitler").
I am trying to figure out how to join the illusive Bear Flag League. I usually read a handful of these after linking to Slings and Arrows. I am in California and right of center, but no one posts how to join this thing or how to get invited.
Also note I am working on improving my site layout, including the link section - which is one area where Blogger lacks a bit.
Update: I have also added Another Rice Grad, who is a fellow Blogger for Bush
Liberals just aren't getting it:
Democrats Open New Liberal Think Tank
The problem isn't that they "aren't getting their ideas out there", the problem is that their ideas are bankrupt. Americans aren't undertaxed, the government overspends. Terrorists don't want to kill us because of our foreign policy, they want to kill us because we're infidels. The solution to any problem isn't to get the government involved, it's to give people the tools to solve the problem themsevles.
It seems that the more unpopular liberal ideas get, the more desperate they become since they believe the problem isn't the ideas themselves, it's just "marketing". So we get Algore starting a "liberal TV network". We get new liberal think-tanks. We get musings about a "liberal Rush".
It sounds like it will take another few election losses before they get it, but some of them never will.
This fell off the major news' lead stories pretty quickly, but is still linked on Drudge:
President Bush said on Tuesday the United States is not ready for a total abortion ban
Wherever you stand on the matter, this is the political truth and a great move by GW. The anti-abortion crowd just got the partial-abortion ban, their first piece of legislation in years, so they're happy and will head to the polls. The shrill pro-choice crowd wouldn't ever dream of voting for Bush, so there's no reason to even think about them.
This comment is for the vast majority of Americans who are in the middle - who think abortions should generally be available, if regulated (no partial birth, parental notification, etc.). It takes an issue out of the hands of democrats and allows those people who vote on only this issue (and I have known a few) to move past it.
Think there will be any response to this by any of the democratic candidates?
My house is directly under one of those smoke plumes. Again, I am counting my blessings that this is all I am having to deal with since there are those who are losing everything - even their lives. 
Photo courtesy Fox News.
I am happy to report that my posting on the Economy below made the Carnival of the Capitalists, a collection of economics- and business-related blog posts.
For those who don't want to scroll down, here is the direct link to that post.
For those of us in SoCal who aren't in direct line of the fires, there is one thing we are having to deal with: smoke and ash "fallout" from the fires. I'm not complaining too much - check the link at right to Slings and Arrows to find someone almost directly in line of one of the fires - so I should be counting my blessings.
The smoke was so bad in Orange County this weekend that I thought it was foggy when I woke up. In addition, anything left outside more than a few minutes gets covered with a layer of ash. Those who don't have covered parking see quite a build-up of ash overnight. I kept my two-year-old inside as much as I could this weekend since who knows what it does to young lungs.
Which brings me to my point: when will we hear from the environmentalists? They insist on passage of insane laws to take miniscule amounts of pollutants out of the air, but then actually block efforts for forest management to prevent fires, when these same fires spread more pollution than decades of man-made pollution. Of course these same people purposely set fires in San Diego recently to burn down new homes, so it's not like these people have any logic in their thinking.
Iraq Rebuilding Money Short of $56B Goal ...that gives me an idea...
Lights, Action!
Powell:Welcome and thanks for tuning in! As you can see by the staffers behind us, we have lots of people waiting to take your call, and if you call now with a donation of $500 million to $2 billion dollars, we have all sorts of great gifts. Why don't you tell them about them, Condoleezza?
Rice: Thanks Colin. Those countries that call in with that size donation can get an Over the Horizon Radar. Now these devices were banned by several treaties not too long ago, but with the U.S. pulling out of SALT, everything's fair game, and I tell you that you do not want to be the last one on your continent to have one of these babies.
Powell: Oh, that got the phones ringing. Condi, what about those countries who can't afford a pledge of that amount? I'm sure we can scramble up some sort of gift for them, can't we?
Rice: That's right, Colin. Those countries giving between $10 million and $500 million can receive their pick of an F-16 Tomcat or a Patriot missile System. Now these are hot items and are going fast, so I urge everyone to call in as soon as possible with their pledge while supplies last.
Powell: And what about our Third World friends, Condi. I'm sure they would like to give something, even if it's just a little.
Rice: Well, Colin, pledges under $10 million get this signed picture from Donald Rumsfeld. Beautifully framed, it comes with a written promise to get a personal phone call before grinding your insignificant little country into dust.
Powell: Well, Condi, with all the little dictators and despots out there, this is sure to become a hot collector's item, especially those who would like to pass it on to the next in line to the throne or generalship.
Okay folks, we are just getting started and have only 20 more hours to go. Up next for entertainment we will demonstrate a low-yield tactical nuclear mortar that can wipe out bunkers as far as 300 feet deep - just a friendly reminder of some of the items we can use against people who really piss us off...
Although I am a Window Manager, I do have some responsibilities. One of those is to track econometric data and forecast how it's going to effect my Company so it can make investment and hiring decisions in the U.S.
The way I think about this is to consider the economy as a funnel. The top part of the funnel is the U.S. Economy, which if it does well, flows money into the key industrial areas, which then buys products from my Company. 
Likewise if there is no money in the economy, the chances of money "trickling down" to my product are lower (the economy could do well and our major segments not, but this is just a general model which I would then break out any segment specific issues). So using this model, I do an analysis using the following steps:
Step 1 - U.S. Economic Picture
In order to get a U.S. forecast I track ten U.S. economic indicators on a monthly basis. There are a variety of places for these, but one site that has good historical data is Neat Ideas. I am not going to list all of them, but there are the "big two" which are posted and commented on incessantly by the mainstream press: GDP and unemployment.
There is no doubt the U.S. economy is growing, with 4Q03 estimates on the order of 4%, which makes it surprising that we have fools like Gephardt saying this is the "worst economy since the depression". The reason that he can get away with some of this rhetoric is the unemployment picture, which hasn't kept up with economic growth.
There have been a variety of explanations for this issue ranging from the fact the unemployment is a lagging indicator to the issue of structural changes in manufacturing. However, I think the next two graphs provide some good insight on the issue. The first shows that U.S. industrial output is picking up. The second explains why unemployment is still lagging: productivity - the amount of goods output over labor input, has skyrocketed recently, meaning that businesses have increased output while holding labor steady.
While there has been sideways movement of manufacturing, it is up significantly over the last few quarters, along with an increase in productivity. The question is: how long can businesses keep up this productivity increase? The answer to this question indicates when hiring will start significantly improving.
Based on the other six indicators I track and other forecasts, I estimate that the hiring picture will improve significantly in the 2Q of 2004, just in time for the elections.
Step 2 - My Company's Major Industries
My Company participates in the high-tech field, but its major markets are Personal Computers (PCs), cellphones and consumer electronics. While these products by and large are not manufactured in the U.S., purchasing decisions, pricing and purchasing volumes are made here. In addition, the U.S. is one of the largest markets for these products, so tracking the U.S. demand will point to where these segments are going.
In the PC market, consensus estimates all have the market seeing a recovery this year with several years of volume growth being forecasted.
In the cellphone market, after a flat two years after the 2001 implosion, forecasts keep being revised upward every several months"
The other area I look at is the electronics supply chain, which includes semiconductors ("computer chips") and printed circuit boards (PCBs). Both have shown dramatic improvement lately in their Book to Bill (BB) ratios, which is the ratio of new orders over shipments. Anything over 1.0 means that companies are seeing more orders than they are currently shipping.
The only indicator lagging is semiconductor equipment, meaning that capacity in the manufacturing plants ("fabs") are still not 100%. Estimates of capacity utilization are currently 80% and a continued improvement in semiconductor production should raise the equipment BB above 1 in the first part of next year.
Step 3 - My Company's Products
The next step I take is to look at data for my Company's particular products (I actually try to do a full Porter Model which analyzes all aspects of my industry, but I am trying to keep this posting somewhat brief).
For my particular products, I have already seen great improvement in volume demand based on the upswing in the markets I outlined above. The one area which has prevented my company from improving it's top line is Average Sales Price (ASP), which has seen significant erosion over the past two years.
However, the tide seems to be turning there as well. As volume increases in the above segments and manufacturing capacity tightens at my Company and its competitors, I have seen all our major customers scrambling to lock in long-term volume contracts, meaning they are locking in pricing
In addition, in my particular market and in some associated markets, there have been areas of spot shortages, which is probably another reason purchasing managers are looking to lock in contracts.
Step 4 - Conclusions
Based on this analysis, I have provided the following conclusions to my Masters:
1. The U.S. economy is growing. Growth will continue accelerate in 2004 and employment will start showing significant improvement by the second quarter.
2. All Major Markets that we participate in are showing volume growth and will continue to have growth in 2004.
3. ASPs, which have been the weak point in growing our top line revenue so far in 2003, are stabilizing due to tightening of manufacturing capacity in our market. This fact means that we should be able to grow both volume and revenue in 2004
4. Based on these conclusions, both expansion and hiring should be planned for the coming fiscal year.
Step 5 - Personal Conclusions
The above analysis is a part of my job, which I am judged on, so the analysis was done as impartially as possible since a huge screw-up will likely make me an unemployed Window Manager.
Based on what I see, however, I don't see the economy being a big stick for the democrats in next year's election. There are certainly other issues which Bush will be weak, but the economy - probably the biggest issue for the out-of-power party - won't be a large factor.
Everyone knows about the Holocaust. While there are a few kooks out there that deny it happened, the vast majority of the world is horrified at the mass extermination of millions of people by the Nazis. Nazis to this day are hunted down. People who even hint that they approve of Nazis are shunned from polite society, have no chance to win any major election and couldn't hold a job anywhere where they are in the public eye, such as television or the press.
On the other hand very few people know about the Mass Starvation created in the Ukraine by the Soviet Union under Stalin. Over 5 million people were systematically starved while their food was taken and exported to Russia.
A total of 20 million people were systematically murdered under Soviet Communism in mass executions and deportations to the Gulag where they were worked to death - about 4 million more than the Nazis.
Like the Holocaust deniers, there were those who denied the Ukrainian forced starvation happened, but instead of being portrayed as kooks, they work for the New York Times and win Pulitzers. One in particular was Walter Duranty, who wrote during the 1930s. Today there is documentation that he knew positively what was going on in the Ukraine, but wrote articles for the Times denying it was going on so he could continue to have "access" to Stalin (sound familiar? CNN did the same thing with Saddam).
There has been an ongoing movement to revoke the Pulitzer and it has been an uphill fight. The hypocrisy of the matter is that if it had been awarded to a Holocaust denier, it would have been revoked years ago.
Another movement is underway in Congress to condemn the Ukrainian Genocide. Congressional Resolution 254 was introduced on the 70th anniversary of the mass starvation to condemn Russia and Stalin for Crimes Against Humanity. The bill has met resistance and is actively being lobbied against by the Russian Embassy.
Question: would a similar bill condemning the Holocaust have any issues passing? What would be U.S. reaction if the German embassy lobbied against it?
More people were systematically killed under Stalin than Hitler, but those who approve of Communism hold jobs in media. Many politicians in Europe serve openly as Communists. Polls conducted in Russia today show high approval ratings of Stalin. Former Soviet gulag guards talk openly of human atrocities committed under their watch while Nazi Concentration Camp guards are hunted down 50 years later. Why do Communists get a free pass when it comes to Genocide?
Rerun, of What's Happening has died.
The sad part is I actually watched his show in probably some of the most wasted time of my childhood. Even sadder is that I remember the two "famous" episodes mentioned in the obit.
In my defence I will remind everyone that in the mid-70s households had SIX (6) TV stations (big 3, PBS, 2 UHF) and I wasn't exactly reading novels just yet. Computers? Video Games? Internet? Man, today's kids have it easy when it comes to entertainment.
And my first thought that came through my head when I read this: Not too surprising he died already considering his weight....
Okay, today was fluff postings... I post on Rerun and stupid internet quizzes when we have items ranging from partial birth abortions, the President's Asia trip, ongoing Democratic stupidity, and so on. But sometimes you just gotta take a break.
As most in the Blogosphere know by now, there was a Denial of Service (DOS) attack that shut down many of the most popular and linked sites including Instapundit, Dailypundit and many others.
Instapundit posted the effect of the DOS attack for reference, so I posted the same graph for Window Manager. I am happy to say that this site, like Instapundit, is up and servicing its loyal readers - both of you.
Mrs. Director would be very surprised that I came out "well balanced"
Take Are you a cheapskate?
...if anything in this life is certain - if history has taught us anything - it's that you can kill anybody - Michael Corleone, Godfather II
...all someone needs is a willingness to trade his life for the President's... - Frank Horrigan (Clint Eastwood), from In the Line of Fire
These quotes came to mind as I read the story and discussions over the recent "compromising" of airport security where a college student snuck boxcutters past airline security onto two Southwest Airline flights. There was the predictable political response that "someone should be fired" and other finger pointing towards the TSA, Homeland Security and other agencies.
The fact of the matter is that there is no foolproof security system, especially when it comes to public transportation. It is a physical impossibility to screen every passenger, every piece of luggage. By default this means it's possible to get contraband onto an airplane.
This issue points out the fallacy of our current airport security - focusing only on the weapons rather than also trying to screen the people who would use them. As the above quotes point out, there is no foolproof security system, even when all you're guarding is one man. This is why the Secret Service takes seriously any "threats" made against the President and canvasses locations for known loonies days before a President arrives on the scene. The Service profiles and keeps close tabs on anyone who they think might want to hurt the President.
The same can't be said for normal Americans who travel. We have to rely on a system designed to catch every weapon that comes through it, when this is, in fact, a physical impossibility. A better method - to do additional screening of those whose profile matches those who have done harm in the past - has been deemed "bad" in our society, making us less safe.
Box cutters don't down airplanes, Muslim extremists down airplanes. The student who snuck the weapons had no intent to harm, making the box cutters innocuous devices. On the other hand, innocuous devices can kill - a metal ball point pen can be stuck into the jugular. It's people who want to terrorize and kill Americans using any tactic available that we need to stop. If we stop them, the periodic stories of contraband getting through (and this will never end) will continue to be college students with an axe to grind rather than someone who wants to create real harm.
I'm in my mid 30s and remember the first video games; I remember the first time I saw "Asteroids", "Space Invaders" and other (now) classics. I then watched this industry mature, coming into my home as an Atari console, saw it get surpassed by Odyssey, later by Nintendo.
So the geniuses (and I mean this literally) at Electronic Gaming Monthly got a bunch of today's kids raised on Grand Theft Auto, put them in a room and made them play some 20 year old "classic games" (including Hand Held Football which I thought was SO cool). The results are hilarious and if you remember the classics as an original gamer, this article is for you (watch out for pop-ups from this site).
Hat Tip: email from rorschach at ScarySharp
Here's a link to an interview from an editor at the San Jose Mercury News about the recent California Recall. Key quote:
"We -- the media -- are increasingly disconnected from what people are talking about," Goldberg told journalists at the Associated Press Managing Editors association's annual conference, which kicked off Wednesday. "I'm not sure exactly what to do to solve it."
Big Media has been disconnected from the U.S. population from some time. Heavily weighted by bi-coastal liberals, the press is disconnected from normal working families who are just trying to hold their jobs, make their mortgage and raise a family. Referring to anywhere outside the liberal bastions of SF and NYC as "flyover country", these people expect the population they collectively dismiss to swallow lock, stock and barrel the skewed point of view emanated by the major networks and newspapers and then become shocked - shocked! - when they are no longer listened to. They watch in horror as a network conforming closer to American Values (Fox) gains market share. They claim to be "impartial" while slamming the War on Terror, the War on Iraq and never meeting a tax increase they didn't like.
For the press to "solve it", they have to understand that families are overtaxed. That we are tired of politicians pandering to special interests. That we are at war with Muslim extremism. We can disagree about how to address these issues, but to dismiss them - or more accurately, to actively take the opposing side - will leave them outside the mainstream for some time.
Hat Tip: Lost Remote
For my Monday Personality test, I decided to roll my own: Which Democratic Candidate Are You?
Some notes:
- In order to keep it short, it really isn't possible to get an answer of each candidate (and I didn't even do one for Gephardt)
- There is, however, a link at the end of the quiz that will show you all possible answers
- The site I used to create this - Quizilla - can run slow at times
- If anyone has additional questions that should be on the test, let me know
Enjoy!
Truth Laid Bear ranks blogs, based on traffic. I am actually surprised to see myself above a single cell organism.
Alas, I haven't (yet) made Sling and Arrow's Primate Promotion Project, which he is still continuing...
I have been reading about "Social Networking" applications for a while, most notably a few articles at TechDirt and others which have pointed out that there is a funding "bubble" in this space. My opinion was that I didn't see a revenue or profit stream from this market since it is used mainly for "socializing" and would have problems finding an application in business. While dating services can make money, I don't see VCs getting a return on their investment by this segment becoming a giant revenue maker. They are likely hoping that Yahoo, Google and the other main portals will buy into this space to increase their traffic flow (like Google's purchase of Blogger, which you are currently reading), but if these companies become interested, it will be a make versus buy decision and I am doubtful that the VCs will see a 10x return on their investment.
I was invited this weekend to join Friendster and since I was spouting opinions about its market, I thought I would join and check it out.
My first impression is the same as before I joined: it looks like a good way to meet people for socializing and to fill your Little Black Book. It is also probably a good way to hook up with people with similar hobbies, especially those that require a lot of people like Civil War Re-enactment. However, its usefulness as a business tool is questionable, at best.
I will give it some time and will invite some of my "friends" on board to get their opinion, but so far I see this as basically a dating service for young adults.
Some of the "friends" registered on the site are people having fun. There are at least a few cars looking for others to "rev their engines". Sweden, Countryof is also a member. Since this whole concept goes back to "Six Degrees to Kevin Bacon", several Kevins are also on the site, proving that, indeed, there are only six people between you and him.
Slings and Arrows, a fellow right-of-center SoCal blogger has been added. I found his site about a week ago and have been commenting on his posts and he recently linked to my discussion below about the chekers' strike. Thanks!
He actually beat me to the punch on his latest posting, which is news on the improving economy. My posting was going to have some fictional (or probably not-so-fictional) conversation from DNC headquarters with something like this:
McAuliffe : Damn! The economy is improving! What are we going to run on now?!
Lackey: We still have the unilateral Iraq issue...
(from offstage): Boss, UN resolution on Iraq was unanimously approved!"
McAuliffe : Damn! Okay, what about that Plame issue?
Lackey: The story totally lost momentum after questions arose of whether she was actually under cover and other gaps in our attack story.
McAuliffe : Afghanistan?
Lackey: Non-starter
McAuliffe : Is there any way we can pin the Cubs loss on Bush? Maybe that guy who blocked that catch was a Republican...go check into that.
Ten killed. 65 injured, including three amputations.
Authorities were looking into whether a pilot's blood pressure medication caused him to slump at the controls
Whether or not this turns out to be the cause, the guy is taking meds that may make him unconscious, but he's still allowed to pilot a ship. If this guy were placed on medical leave or a desk job before this accident happened, a lawsuit would have been filed by his union or the ACLU in about 30 seconds in an effort to allow the "handicapped" or "disabled" to have equal access to jobs.
The FAA has strict rules for airline pilots, including relatively low age restrictions, that are immune from discrimination suits. Why don't all modes of public transportation have the same rules?
As everyone nationwide now knows, there's another strike going on in SoCal with the check-out people (who I call, non-disparagingly, "checkers").
I was a bit surprised when I came to California to find these people unionized. Back from the Wild West where I came from, this was an hourly, low-wage job that was done by a lot of part-timers, students and people at the bottom of the labor pool. You gotta start somewhere. And the local checker was always a fun person to flirt with (As frozen pizzas, pretzels and the like go by the conveyor belt "You know, I'm actually a really good cook.")
Here, it's a "career" with the average wage around $18/hour. This is a pretty high level of pay to scan bar codes (pretty damn simple) and make change (I'll give that there is some intelligence required here). I mean, who wants to go through life as this being the apex of achievement? (apparently quite a few). And now in many stores there are "self check-out" aisles where consumers can do it themselves (so I can attest to scanning being simple, although a computer shoots out your change). This is not listed as a factor in the strike, but it's got to be at the back of some of the union-leader's minds.
The issue of the strike is that the stores want the checkers to start paying $5-$10 a week towards their health insurance. This is an attempt to get ready for the eminent entry of Walmart grocery stores, which are going to eat these guys lunch if SoCal shopping patterns follow the rest of the country.
Grocery store margins are on the order of 3% - so for that $100 of groceries you buy the store nets a whopping $3 of profit to pay for rent, insurance, checkers, what have you. Walmart coming into the area with non-union checkers making, let's say $9/hour, are going to have a significant price advantage while keeping the same margin.
Never mind paying healthcare. These people are likely to see stores shut down and permanently lose their jobs (would you rather make $18/hour and pay $40/month for insurance or lose your job, then having to go work at Walmart for $9/hour with no insurance). In typical union fashion they are bargaining away their members long-term interests in order to get a short-term benefit. (Unions are more effective in government where there is no competition to the employer and layoffs and downsizing are unheard of).
Mrs. Director crossed the picket line last night to shop (she was smart enough not to let me go since I would probably end up in a shouting match with a striker or two). She said the picketers were polite and handed out some literature (in English AND Spanish) boohooing their case. There were replacement workers inside working who did have problems with the more intricate complexities of the job ("This customer's club card isn't valid!"), but everyone got checked out okay. Curiously, the self-checkout lanes were closed.
My prediction is that the stores will win this one and the strikers will be back at work in a few weeks. The economy is recovering, but jobs are still lagging, so there is a large pool of replacement workers out there willing to pick up the slack of the strikers. Consumers by and large really don't seem to care crossing the picket line, and it's not like people who are union sympathizers are going to drive 20 miles to a non-striked store.
My question which hasn't been answered: some of the sackers (also on strike) were "mentally handicapped" individuals. Assuming they have a tenuous grasp of the matter, if at all, what do their care providers tell them when they try to go to work in the morning?
Los Angeles mass transit workers are on strike today, currently shutting down busses and potentially the trains.
So who uses the bus to get to and from work each day? It isn't the banker or the lawyer - they're stuck in traffic in their Lexi. It's the poor - the working poor - who depend on mass transit to get to and from work. Here's the key point in the article:
In a city dominated by cars, roughly 500,000 people rely on MTA buses and trains, Los Angeles officials said. Most of the passengers are the working poor whose income averages around $15,000 a year, making cars difficult to afford.
So half a million poor people who can't afford cars are now unable to get to work and earn a living. Good job, unions.
Comedy Central is running a survey of Greatest SNL Episodes of all time. The problem: they start the voting in 1980, after some of the greatest moments have already passed. I mean we are talking about the "Samurai" skits, the "Land Shark", "Coneheads", the list goes on.
Since CC is running the "winners" my guess is that they only have the rights starting in 1980 (I believe they sell the "classic" SNL as a DVD set), which means I won't bother to vote or watch.
Well, due to the popularity of my Meyers Briggs Posting, which was one-upped by Jim, who posted another legitimate test, plus a Nethack test, which I really enjoyed (it was SPOT ON - I am a leprechaun - I like to make as much money as possible, with as little effort as possible, and then go back to bed - wow, that's eerily true).
So I thought I would add, as a Monday feature, a personality test, of which there are plenty on the web. Today's is: Which character from the Princess Bride are you?
Apparently I signed up for Blogger just as they are updating their strategy after being acquired by Google. I had tried to "upgrade" my blog to "Blogger Plus" allowing me to upload pictures, but their site said this was "temporarily down" as they changed their system.
I sent an inquiry to Support on this and a few other questions (permalinks and track-backs - I didn't know the latter is a Movable Type feature) and got IMMEDIATE responses. In addition, they upgraded my account for free to upload pictures.
So a special thanks to Blogger support and Christine for helping me out as they go through upgrading their own internal strategy. I can now post sophomoric postings like this:
Do you REALLY believe this man:
would grope THIS woman: 
I have taken this probably 4-5 times at various companies, most recently last week in my present position (no results on that one yet). This quick test matches my memory of the last few I have taken.
| ISTJ - "Trustee". Decisiveness in practical affairs. Guardian of time- honored institutions. Dependable. 6% of the total population. |
An article from EE Times today described a speech from the president of Nvidia, who made the following statement, which EE Times noted, raised a lot of eyebrows:
"A small fabless company is fundamentally long-term intractable," he said. Huang argued that given the increasing resources necessary to field a chip and the diminishing markets for application-specific products, the only survivors in the fabless world would be companies that "identified a broad swath of applications that could be met with a single piece of configurable or programmable hardware. Only then can they achieve the volumes necessary to survive."
This is one of those high-level general statements which might apply to a few fields, but does not apply to every single segment. He is correct that it is taking increasing amounts of capital to get an IC company off the ground, mainly due to the skyrocketing costs of mask sets, which are now over $1 million at the latest process nodes. But plenty of niches still exist where a nimble company with unique technology can create a "one-off" product and generate a large number of sales. They then have to maintain this lead as new companies and eventually the majors enter this field.
There was a Southwest Airlines commercial like this:
It was a monumental mistake for Alanis Morissette at the aptly named Monumental Stadium in Lima, the capital city of Peru! As Alanis capped her smash concert before 14,000 raving Peruvians, she suddenly shrieked giddily: "Thank you, BRAZIL!" Fans were shocked into silence and Peruvian papers slammed her the next day - although one excused her geographical gaffe, saying, "it must have been the emotion she felt for being in Peru." (Or those funny Peruvian cigarettes!)
She then said that she was drunk. She now says that she was misunderstood:
Alanis Denies Gaff
Okay, after watching this week's Enterprise last night, I can't resist doing yet another one.
Executive: First, Jenkins, have you followed up on my program to add more commercial time to the Enterprise time slot?
Jenkins: Yes, sir. We doubled the tempo on the opening credit song, therefore shortening the opening and adding 30 more seconds to the time slot.
Executive: Excellent. Now, the reason I called you in here. I see here in Variety that there's this movie that has become very popular with the younger crowd - this 28 Days?
Jenkins: Yes, sir. A British release that used unknown actors and viral marketing to create...
Executive: Yes, yes, yes, that's all fine and well, but what is it about?
Jenkins: Zombies, sir.
Executive: Zombies?
Jenkins: Plague zombies, to be exact, sir.
Executive: Well, as popular as this movie is, I think we need some on Enterprise, don't we?
Jenkins: But, sir, Enterprise is a science fiction show...
Executive: ZOMBIES, Jenkins. I want plague zombies!!
Jenkins: Yes, sir, I'll get right on it.
Executive: And I want it in October as we get close to Halloween.
Jenkins: You got it, sir!
Sort of a follow-up to my post below on the "Immutable Laws of Consumer Electronics", I found this posting on a VC website which discusses the "Digital Hand", which is a marriage of Smith's Invisible Hand with Moore's law (no, Dr. Bob, it isn't something you do with on-line porn). It has a lot of the same concepts which I put in my posting, which are pretty obvious to anyone who is trying to make a buck in high-tech these days.
The Digital Hand
The following post on a new (?) site I now periodically read got me into posting mode today:
HEADS THEY WIN, TAILS WE LOSE
Which echoes my listing below about what democrats said after the California election - Ahnold being elected is a BAD sign for Bush (yea, right. Spin on, Garth)
That got me thinking about another area of democratic denial: raising taxes, which all major democratic candidates are running on. I then keep reading on left-leaning sites about how taxes will "help" the economy. While patently not true (never mind the economy seems to be improving just fine right now), the democrats seem to forget the following recent history:
- Davis just kicked out on his ass on a lot of anger of raising the car tax (plus licenses for illegals, which I submit put a lock on the recall)
- The "Latte Tax" failing in left friendly Seattle (we're talking about a bunch of rich left-wingers rejecting a dime increase on their morning $2 coffee)
- Rejection of the Tennessee Tax increase by voters
Anyone notice a trend here? And you want to get elected into national office by promising to raise everyone's taxes? In best Dr. Evil impersonation: riiiiiiigggggggt.
While everyone knows Ahnold won, what they maybe haven't heard is how some of the "lower tier" candidates fared. As of 9:15 today:
Arianna Huffington (Ind): 42,235
Peter V. Ueberroth (Rep): 21,569
Larry Flynt (Dem): 15,115
Gary Coleman (Ind): 12,518
Huffington and Ueberroth dropped out of the race, so their votes are either "protest votes" from their previous backers, or maybe people who voted "no" on recall who just wanted to pencil in a candidate.
Flynt's numbers are probably close to the number of paid subscribers to Hustler in California (and I REALLY don't want to research that, so let's just make the assumption).
And then there's Coleman, one of several "entertainers" on the candidate list (I am of course including Ahnold and the porn star). Over 12,000 votes for a midget actor (PC term: "Little Person"). So was the California "Little Person" population expressing its might? Let's do an estimate:
California Population: 33.9 Million
Eligible Voters: 21.4 Million (63%)
Estimate % of Dwarfism (from dwarfism.com): 1 in 40,000
Estimate of California Little People Voters: 535
Even if we double or even tripple the percentage in California assuming a higher concentration of those who come here to go into show business, Coleman's vote of 12,518 or .2 percent of votes is MUCH higher than the midget population of California. Congratulations, Gary!
Update: I had an email comment that Coleman is not technically a midget or dwarf, but just "short" (and suffers from kidney problems).
So, Ahnold was elected. No big surprise, but some just don't get it:
DEMOCRAT CHAIRMAN MCAULIFFE: 'PEOPLE ARE VERY ANGRY AT THE COURSE OF OUR NATION... PEOPLE ARE WORRIED ABOUT THEIR JOBS, THEIR HEALTH INSURANCE, THEY ARE TAKING IT OUT ON GRAY DAVIS.
He's not getting it - or in denial (for example, Davis passed a bill mandating employers give health insurance just last week). Davis has been charting the course of this State for nearly five years and has driven it into the ground by pandering to special interests - the economy alone wasn't enough for the recall to go through.
The first nail was the tripling of the car tax. Try paying that while not having a job. Then it was the bill giving drivers licenses to illegal aliens that put a lock on the election. The outrage from everyone I knew was palpable.
When I have friends who have identified themselves as democrats for years say, "That party no longer represents what I stand for," you have to wonder what the democrats are thinking. They are correct that voters are angry, but they are wrong about what it is directed towards.
I got a strange email today:
Thank you for sending your resume to (Fortune 500 Company where I actually worked before). We appreciate your interest in becoming a part of our team and will keep your resume in our files for six months.
Here's the problem: I didn't submit, send or otherwise transfer my resume to this company. I have never applied for a job there in the six years since I have left the company. I haven't spoken or networked with anyone at the company in the better part of six months. I DO have colleagues there whom I would work for again IF the right opportunity came up (at the right price), but they would all call me first to feel me out, do the pitch, etc.
Here's my concern: I don't mind if my resume is floating around on the system of my former employer, but is it the right resume? Where did they get it? Did someone send it in? Did some scumbag headhunter find it floating out in the internet and submit it? Is some hiring manager there going through Standard Operating Procedures before giving me a job pitch? (unlikely) Or is this some HR glitch from someone moving around data of ex-employees?
I sent a reply saying as an ex-employee I would consider the proper opportunity, but that I didn't submit nor authorize the submission of my resume. The problem is that this seems to be the "mass in-box" of this company's recruiting department, so I am not confident of ever getting a response.
Weird.
This caught my eye this morning since I don't believe it:
Galvin insists semi spin off not tied to his departure
Analysts and others have been telling Mot to spin off this division for years, especially after it fell out of the top 10 last year. Two weeks after Galvin announces his departure, they announce the spin-off. That isn't a coincidence. It isn't until near the bottom of the article that we see what's going on:
Galvin declined to say whether he would seek a position with a separate Motorola SPS company.
They are going to parachute him into the new corporation. This has happened a number of times with other spinoffs with CEOs keeping some sort of title in the parent and working at the spinoff and collecting big salaries for both (see: Dwight Decker and the companies of Rockwell, Conexant, MindSpeed, Pictos, etc.)
As a "Window Manager", one of the things I look for are new opportunities to be a real manager - whether to start my own company or find a position at another one. This news story piqued my interest today:
After years of analyst speculation, Motorola announced today that they are spinning off their semiconductor (SC) operations.
Pilot fish are small fish that swim around sharks picking up morsels of food they leave behind after a feeding frenzy. I imagine there will be some tidbits of food left after the divestiture, the question will be what areas and how to break into them:
Outside Investments - the semiconductor group has direct or indirect investment in a variety of companies through their corporate venture arm. One example is Morpho Technology, which makes reconfigurable processors. What happens to these investments? They will presumably go with the SC group, but the new company is unlikely to have the capital to keep up with future rounds, or may even be interested in selling off investments to raise capital.
On the other side of the investment, companies like Morpho were likely counting on Mot as a potential "buy out" candidate, especially in this era of tight venture capital and few IPOs. I think a quick Google and Mot press release search might be worth the time and effort to get a list of these companies for further study.
Additional Spinoffs - Motorola's semiconductor division has several areas where they not only lag, but have no revenue. These are candidates for additional "re-spins" to raise additional capital and focus the new company on a few key areas. One potential divesting area is the image sensor business, which they were in, left, and re-entered. They have little to no revenue in this area, which is actually booming. This could be picked up by an established player like OmniVision, or be picked up by some enterprising entrepreneurs. There are probably other product areas, as well as some manufacturing operations (there is a worldwide manufacturing overcapacity at this time, so not a good area).
New Suppliers/Consulting/New Staff - So as a new public company, the Mot SC company will need all sorts of people, personnel, consulting and services to run a new public entity. One example is an entire finance staff (not my area, but an example). The current CFO, treasurer, Investor Relations, etc. are all handled at the Mot "corporate level". These guys and their teams will likely stay with the Mother Ship (with an exception here or there), meaning that this entire area has to be hired at the new company (my previous experience with spin-offs is that the guys one step below executive are given the opportunity to get a promotion and go with the spin-off and then rebuild entire teams at the new company).
Additional areas would likely include the HR function and financial systems. Operations, Marketing, Marcom and the like are already at the division level.
The investment bankers (IBs), venture capitalists (VCs) and people who are already involved with Mot are already all over this, but it might be worth a little research and a call or two.
Okay, raise your hand if you think ANYONE would grope this woman (I have to link to it until I figure out how to post pictures in Blogger).
Latest Ahnold Groping Claim
I would believe, on the other hand, that SHE made unwanted sexual advances at HIM.
UPDATE: She's lying (imaging that!) The hair stylist on the set came forward and said it was HE that did what she claimed and that Ahnold was no where near the trailer.
Her story was that Ahnold pulled up her shirt against her will and took a poloroid which was then posted on the ceiling of the trailer on the set. The hair stylist says that what happened was that the two of them (no one else) were were goofing around and he put the camera under her shirt (without lifting) and took a picture. She laughed and thought it was funny. The make-up artist (as apposed to the hair stylist) later posted it on the trailer as a contest to guess whose torso it was (this sounds like something out of my dorm in college days). Note this all happened around 10 years ago.
How many similar stories will we find once reporters start digging on the Ahnold allegations? One commenter called this whole thing political terrorism, and I think that is a good description.
Well, as a Californian it has been a very interesting week in relation to the recall. We have allegations on Ahnold "groping" women. We have allegations of Governor Davis "physically attacking" his staffers. We have allegations of Bustamante using the "n-word" during a public speech.
What we don't have is a discussion on the issues effecting the state, on policies in place that hurt the state, or on policies that can improve the state. The LA Times had a team of staffers "working for weeks" on the Ahnold report, but they can't find the resources to research corruption in Sacramento or how money is influencing policy decisions.
So what about these claims against Ahnold? There are several un-named sources (on the Davis claims, the LA times refused to run the story due to un-named sources, but decided to change their mind in this case). On the named sources, one has had an ongoing feud with Ahnold for over 20 years and makes claims against him that magnify the more successful he has gotten. Another is married to a democratic operative.
Davis and Bustamante have called for a "criminal investigation" (you knew that was coming). If true, is it criminal to tell a total stranger that she has a "nice ass" and to grab it? (Davis admits it would be only a misdemeanor). And how far back does one go?
Society norms have changed in 30 years and this activity in the 1970s was a legitimate way for a guy to make a pass. Today it could land you a lawsuit - nevermind a misdemeanor - especially if you're famous, which is why the claims sound untrue if they are more recent than about 15 years old. Get groped by a famous movie star, file a lawsuit, settle for six figures. It would be a no brainer. The fact that the claims from supposedly years ago are now coming out right before the election show they are politically motivated.
At this point it seems the claims won't have an effect on the election, but we'll know for sure in about 48 hours. I am rooting for Ahnold not because of his policies (which are thin, if anything), but because I think we need to send a message to the professional political class that enough is enough. Sort of like when Ventura won his election, it will hopefully make the politicians change the way they do business.
I watched this week's episode of "Enterprise" off my Tivo last night. After watching it, I figured there was a conversation at Paramount that went something like this:
Executive: What's our ratings on Enterprise?
Lackey: Sir, they haven't moved since the start of the new season.
Exec: Okay, put Blalock - what's her characters name, Tupoo?
Lacky: T'Pol, sir
Exec: Yes, T'Pok. Put her in a skimpier outfit
Lacky: Already did that sir.
Exec: Okay, show some more of her skin, and have her have some sort of intimate relationship with one of the beefcakes - I don't care which one.
Lacky: Already doing that sir. We are doing massage therapy with the character "Trip".
Exec: I see. And ratings still aren't up? Okay, well, we are going to have to pull out the stopper. Put in a lesbian scene. THAT will get the ratings up.
Lacky: Sir?
Exec: You heard me.
Lacky: But what about the sensors?
Exec: Well, not real lesbian sex, but some "alien" format where it isn't sex, per se, but our audience gets it.
Lacky: You're brilliant, sir! We'll get right on it.
Is there such a thing? Here are a few suggestions:
- Integration will always Increase (essentially a restatement of Moore's Law)
- Size and Weight will Always Decrease (ditto). Maybe a corollary to this that devices will become portable.
- Cost of Storage Will Always Decrease (Moore's law covers various RAM and Flash devices and a lot of writers have suggested a Moore's law for magnetic and optical storage)
- Analog will move to Digital (audio moved from tapes to CDs, video from VHS to DVD. Moves are afoot for digital TV and radio. Is digital power in our future?)
- Moving parts will be eliminated when at all possible (which is why magnetic storage is removed from devices whenever solid state storage is able to replace it). Another aspect of this, however, is the MEMS movement, which is going to try to do to mechanical devices what semiconductor manufacturing has done with electronic devices: shrink and integrate.
- Monochrome will move to color (photographs, TVs, printers, PDA displays, Gameboys, cellphone screens)
- Wired to wireless
- Gilder would suggest a law on bandwidth (I actually think he tried to promote a "Gilder's Law" for broadband to compete with Moore in silicon)
- Gates would put one on personalized content (non-recordable media to recordable media being but one aspect)
- Styling is increasingly important - In portable electronics styling has become more and more a differentiating feature. Cellphones are as much a fasion accessory as a tool for communication. Ditto MP3 players. I think laptops have a segment in this area. Apple is probably the only player who has done a good job on this in the desktop area.
- My personal one on the list is DirectorMitch's Law: Consumer electronics and the components that make them in the long term are all commodities and making money on either is VERY hard
This last case is why we have such a large emphasis on branding and a rush to streamline manufacturing and operations ("I'm sorry, we just sent your job to India"). There is no difference between an HP and a Dell computer - they use all the same components from the same suppliers. The winner will be the one who has the most efficient operations and the best sales channels to move the equipment (the brand helps the channel).
Any others?
Home-Heating Bills May Rise in Winter
Or they may not. Why does this stuff get posted as "news"?
N. Korea Says It Is Making Nuclear Bombs
Will be interesting to see if this is true. NK has a history of blustering and saber rattling to get what they want (which worked under Clinton), and if true this time, could create a very interesting dynamic in the region:
Japan - Japan can build a nuclear arsenal in less time than it takes to come out with the next DVD player. They have threatened to do just this if NK built bombs.
China - China does NOT want a re-armed Japan. Most Americans are pretty ignorant of Japanese colonialism and the "Greater East Asia Prosperity Sphere" they created in the early part of the 20th century (Pearl Harbor through WWII is about it), but the Asians have not forgotten, especially China, which bore the hardest brunt of Japanese occupation.
China is NK's last protector, but for how long? NK is nothing but a drain on resources, but China has a history of wanting only friendly states on their borders - and an ally (united Korea)of the U.S. on its border is not desirable. South Korea on the other hand has literally billions of dollars of investment in China (as does the U.S.)
I think China's long-term strategy on Taiwan also plays into this.
South Korea - I just can't figure this country out. Sort of like the saying about remarriage, it is the triumph of hope over experience.
One of the most brutal dictatorships in history is on its border. NK is essentially a giant concentration camp where mass starvation, executions and oppression are the norm. It has shown over and over again that it will not honor its treaties. Yet SK thinks of them as long-lost brothers and assume they won't be attacked (again). The official policy is one of appeasement ("Sunshine Policy") and my experience in that country is that most people just pretend NK doesn't exist (I was there when a number of provocations by NK were going on - short-term movement of NK planes into SK airspace, temp movement of NK troops into the DMZ, etc. and it didn't even raise an eyebrow with anyone there)
U.S. - So what is our interest in Southeast Asian affairs? Obviously we have strong ties to Japan, and essentially provide its military protection. We are still manning the DMZ in South Korea, which saw itself go from a backward agricultural country to a growing industrial giant while under our protection (Japan was already industrialized when we occupied it). And we want to contain China to prevent it from invading Taiwan.
I would also argue that we have a humanitarian interest in stopping the brutal oppression of the NK people.
Russia - Hard to say. They want a check on China as well as the U.S. One would think they also don't want the proliferation of WMD.
Will be interesting to see how all this plays out.
Hey, this is the same as the greater Los Angeles Area
General: 3 to 6 GIs Dying in Iraq a Week
If you look at the largest metropolitan areas - New York, LA, Houston, D.C. - you will see they each average over 300 murders a year, close to one a day. Just something to think about.
Guess what? Three democratic candidates believe that anyone who doesn't agree with them should be barred from the airwaves (see update below).
On Wednesday, Democratic presidential candidates Wesley Clark, Howard Dean and Al Sharpton urged ESPN to fire Limbaugh.
If you missed it, Limbaugh said that one particular quarterback is under-appreciated by the media and the NFL due to his race...oh wait... it wouldn't have been a problem if he said that.
He said that a particular quarterback is OVERAPPRECIATED because of his race, and it set up a fire storm. (Is it true? I have no idea since I stopped following professional sports years ago, but not likely since sports is one of the few areas where it is truely a meritocracy. We do know, however, that some organizations are giving minorities a pass as shown by the recent example of the New York Times Blair incident). But Rush is entitled to his opinion, ESPN is entitled to hire whomever they want, and viewers are entitled to watch someone else if they so choose.
So as president, Dean would force people he disagrees with or made, in his opinion, "offensive comments" off the air? Okay, okay, this is campaign pandering to a part of the electorate, but recall the uproar when Ari Fleischer recommended that the press not be critical after 9-11.
The bottom line is that government should butt out of matters of the press, and this practice should start when they are still candidates.
Update:Even as I write this, Fox is announcing that Rush "resigned" from ESPN (asked to resign is the most likely scenario). This is ESPN's decission to make, hopefully more from feedback from their viewers and advertisers than from politicians.
ESPN's ratings were up 10% with Rush, so it will be interesting to see what this decision does, either positive or negative.
