Outsource Yourself: Go Expat

I had dinner last night with several ex-pats who are working in Taiwan, and they told me something that I actually found surprising: they are starving for talent over here.

Engineers, production people, management. You name it, they need it. And they need even more of it on the Mainland. And they don't care where it comes from, local or imported, they have a business to run and they need people to do it. As they looked at me like a piece of fresh meat, the inevitable question came: So, Mitch, you ever thought of going ex-pat?

In my observations and conversations with people who have done ex-patriot rotations, I have come to the inevitable conclusion that you either love it or you hate it with little in between. In fact, my experience is that people who go ex-pat usually take multiple assignments in a row, basically "going native", or return back to the States as soon as possible, even breaking their assignments.

There are many benefits and problems with going ex-pat, and most times whether it works is highly dependent on a person's family situation and lifestyle. Singles who like working hard and playing hard usually do pretty well over here. Married people who like fixed hours and lots of time with the family probably won't. If you're in between - married but don't mind long hours - it will depend on your spouse whether an ex-pat assignment will work.

But there are plenty of perks working here: high pay, spending allowances, home visits, nice homes, cheap live-in help for the kids (one of the guys I was with last night pays less each month for a live-in nanny than I pay each week for day-time child care). And in the super low-cost countries like China and Philippines, most ex-pats have several servants and usually a driver.

At this point in my life, an ex-pat assignment is not for me, mainly due to the fact that I want my daughter to grow up in the U.S. and see her daddy. However, when I no longer have kids running around the home, it might be something I would consider.

Carnival of the Capitalists Coming Soon

The Window Manager, in its ongoing effort to teach the world on how to get a six figure job that doesn't require any real work, will host next week's Carnival of the Capitalists.

Please send your entry to capitalists-at-elhide-dot-com, and while you're at it, check out this week's post at Small Business Trends.

Memorial Day? What Memorial Day?

Monday morning in the Republic of China - that's the democratic China that hardly anyone recognizes. But as my fellow Americans take the day off and remember our fallen soldiers who have died for their country (or observe the first day of the summer vacation season) it will be business as usual here.

The Gaijin Club

(Being a foreigner in Japan) is like being a black guy back home. Only there are less of us. - Dennis Haysbert as "Hammer" Dubois in the movie Mr. Baseball

The sideways glance. The slight nod. The brief eye contact. These are the subtle "secret handshakes" that fellow non-Asians pass while in Japan, or pretty much any Asian country.

Japan's population is over 99% ethnic Japanese. South Korea is over 99% ethnic Korean. Taiwan is 98% Chinese or Taiwanese. And so on throughout Asia, so non-Asians stick out like sore thumbs. And not only do the natives notice it, but these countries are so homogeneous that even we visitors notice it when a non-native is around.

So when two Westerners see each other, there is the immediate bond, but also the questions: Is he also here on business? Is she a tourist? Does he live here? Does she speak the lingo? But the bond is immediate, and if in a restaurant, bar or lounge, conversation is easy to strike up since there is the bond of we're outsiders here. (This little fact is what made the link-up in Lost in Translation so believable).

And people from the same country have an even closer bond, and you can tell with a pretty high accuracy what country someone is from just by looking at them. How? Believe it or not, the stereotypes of looks and dress are incredibly accurate (which is why they are stereotypes):

Europeans never match. Something about "fashion" out of Milan or Paris dictates that ties don't match suits. And their shoes are a dead give away they're from the Continent since European men seem as fussy about shoes as American women. Europeans also have the strangest tastes in eye glasses. Their casual wear, however, is of better quality than anyone else's, so some white guy walking down the streets of Japan with a $600 cashmere cardigan tied around his shoulders is almost certainly not an American.

British are wrinkled and dishelveled. Always. Whether in a suit or casual, they look like they just slept in their clothes, even if they just put them on. This is a curious stereotype considering Seville Row, James Bond and Prince Charles, so those nicely dressed chaps must stay in Hong Kong and off the "tech circuit" (I don't run into a lot of finance types).

Americans are heavier set, carrying a few extra pounds than everyone else (I like to think it is a sign of our prosperity). While American professional dress is better than the Europeans (we match, after all), Americans seem to think "casual dress" means beach attire, and we have really become the slobs of the world when out of a suit and tie (myself excluded). Americans (and Canadians) also are the only ones where goatees are still in style.

Canadians look like thinner Americans. Our sloppiness seems to have snuck north of the border.

So fellow citizens have no problems finding each other out over here, but even then, the shared status of being a Gaijin (or Gwilo in China) puts all non-Asians into a single club when over here.

The Art of Waiting in Japan

If I had a dime for every minute I have waited on a Japanese train platform, I'd be a rich man. - Rorschach (the blogger, not the shrink)

When you're selected to go on your first business trip in Japan, there is the excitement of going to a foreign country, seeing a different culture, and honing your skills in international business. This is all true, but there is one thing that veterans of Japanese travel forget to mention: it takes a long time to get anywhere over here and you end up doing a lot of waiting.

Let's take yesterday. I met my local sales guy/guide/interpreter at our Tokyo sales office at 8am and we returned to the same area for dinner around 7pm. In those 11 hours I had one meeting with one customer that lasted 2 hours. The other 9 hours were spent in every form of ground transportation available in Japan: subways, Shinkansen (bullet train), taxis, and of course, walking. And there was a lot of waiting in one spot for each of those. There may be exceptions to this rule, but since I started doing business in Japan in 1998, this has been pretty standard, and other people who have done sales and meetings here tell me the same thing.

Just arriving here takes waiting. You get off a 12 hour flight and are through customs and just want to get to your Tokyo hotel and get some sleep. Guess what? Taking a "limousine bassu" or Narita Express (fast train) to downtown Tokyo will add at least 1.5-2 hours to your trip.

So, what do you do? You do the same things the locals do while they're waiting, and here is what I observe, by order of frequency:

Sleep - By far the number one thing Japanese do while they are traveling and waiting. They sleep on subways, trains, in waiting areas, in coffee shops, sitting down, standing up, I have seen it all.

Read - You see a few novels, but you see a lot of comic books. Not the kid action hero ones you remember from your youth, but 3-4 thick tomes that usually have a lot of violence and sometimes sexually explicit material (called manga). Actually, seeing men reading "real" pornographic material in public isn't uncommon, and at those times you just have to remember that cultures are different.

Wireless Internet - It is frowned upon to talk on a cellphone in a train or subway, but you will see a large number of people clicking away on their cellphones, using the internet. When cellphone internet usage exploded in Japan, U.S. vendors got excited about this service. What they forgot is that a majority of Americans aren't stuck on trains and platforms for hours at a time with nothing to do, so the penetration rates in the U.S. never even remotely approached usage in Japan.

Work - In the world's second largest economy that has a reputation of breeding workaholics, you would expect to see a lot of working, but it is actually rare. If you do see it, it is usually pen and paper, and rarely to you see someone on the Shinkansen whip out a notebook computer and go to work.

Strike up a Conversation - Extremely rare. An Eastern European friend told me about being on a plane that was grounded for a few hours in Poland and within 30 minutes everyone on the plane was talking, arguing politics, and telling stories to the total strangers next to them. This is definitely a cultural thing and not common in Japan

As for myself, I always have a novel handy when I leave my hotel for meetings in Tokyo and always bring several with me so I don't run out of material.

There's No Venti In Japan

Ah, back in the country that gave my blog its name. I've been here around 20 times, although this is my first time back in over two years. I'm actually staying in an area I know very well - Shinjuku - so that I know where a Starbucks is close to my hotel (as well as some fine restaurants).

I love the Japanese culture and people, but they can't make a cup of coffee to save their life. It took an American chain to come here and show them how it's done. (yes, their culture has been based on tea, and our tea technology is vastly inferior, as is our toilet technology).

The Starbucks in Japan, and all over Asia (I actually went to two in Korea and have been to one in Taiwan before) are pretty much the same as the ones in the U.S. - the layout, interior, the aprons, everything (Ed: Mitch, that's why they call it a chain).

The one thing that the Japanese Starbucks didn't bring over with them is the American beverage portions. You find out over here that Asians either don't drink a lot of fluid, or Americans are a lot more thirsty. If you get a drink on a plane, it is served in a 4 oz. dixie cup. If you get a drink of water at a restaurant, you might get a "huge" 6 oz. glass that takes two swallows to deplete. And there is definitely, absolutely, no Venti sized coffee portions in this part of the world.

There is one exception to the beverage portion rule in Asia: alcohol. If you ask for a Kirin "Ichiban", you get a 20 oz. bottle instead of the typical 12 oz. bottle. In fact, pretty much all the booze over here can be supersized if you ask for it.

Selling Internet by the Slice

Here I am in Seoul's Incheon airport patiently waiting for the THREE HOUR LAYOVER my idiot travel agent scheduled. The good part is that there is a coffee shop here that sells internet time by the hour.

I have never tried the Starbuck's wireless services, but from what I can tell, you have to go through a process to sign up, and maybe even do a monthly billing thing (can anyone verify this?). Here, you walk up to the counter and buy a "card" that has a password. You hook up via wireless and enter the password on the card and you are on-line! A little clock pops up telling you how much time you have left. No sign up. No hassles. And at $3 an hour, a darn good deal.

I thought I would be doing limited blogging on my trip, but with S. Korea being one of the most connected, wired countries in the world, I should have known that getting on-line here would be pretty easy. Curious to see how I do in Japan and Taiwan.

For those of you transiting through Incheon, the internet cafe is hard to find and not advertised - I actually stumbled on it by mistake. It is on a "mezzanine" level right above International Arrival Gate "E". Not something you are going to casually see from the check-in level on the third floor.

Merry Buddhamas!

Today is Buddha's Birthday and a major holiday in Korea.

In many countries, this date is celebrated on April 8. However, in Korea it is celebrated on the 8th day of 4th month of the Lunar calendar, so it can hit anywhere from early to late May.

The ceremonies that take place today in the Buddhist temples are supposed to be really interesting to see, but unfortunately I won't have time see one since I am on my way to Japan today (it should be noted that Christians, at about 50% of the population, just outnumber Buddhists, and both Christmas and Buddha's birthday are major holidays).

Nice Respite from American News

Been over here several days and haven't seen nor heard of Abu Ghraib, which still seems to be getting 24/7 news coverage over in the U.S. The sinking of the Hyundai car transport is what got all the headlines this morning, along with Korea's Presidential Crisis of the Week ^TM. International news concentrated on N. Korea's repatriation of Japanese citizens after kidnapping them decades ago and the fact that they still hold in captivity 500 S. Korean citizens kidnapped since the end of Korean War (and people want to trust this country with a nuclear treaty?).

Bush's speech did make the news and it was actually playing in the domestic airport this morning with a Korean voice over. Bush's Korean voice unfortunately didn't sound like him, and I think he may have had a problem with coming up with direct translation terms for "Evil Doers" and "misunderestimate".

This IS One Way to Provide Internet Access in a Hotel Room

I am out of the fancy business hotel in Seoul and down in one of the "smaller" cities in the south of the country: Gwangju. (It has 1.5 million people compared to Seoul's 10 million).

I am now in a Holiday Inn level room, but it DOES have internet access: there is a complete desktop computer in the middle of the room with internet. It is housed in a special locked security desk, so I can't yank out the internet cable and plug it into my own laptop, and the wall connection isn't standard.

I suppose I could figure out a way to get into the desk it but am too jetlagged to bother. After all, it does serve my basic internet needs, although all the menus in Explorer and Windows are in Korean, as is the keyboard when I toggle a switch: ㅡㅑㅅ초 디ㅣ ㄲ댤디 .

At one point a "chat" window opened up on my screen in Korean. Just think, I might have had a date for the evening if I had known how to respond...

Glad I Didn't Connect Through a French Airport

What's everyone doing blogging in the middle of the night at 4:30 am? I notice a few asterisks to the right indicating recent updates...

Wait...It's 4:30 am MY time. Damn jet lag. I stay up for over 24 hours straight, going to sleep only when I hit the pillow in Korea, only to wake up less than 6 hours later because my body is saying "Mitch, what the hell you doing asleep in the middle of the afternoon? Get up!" The scene in Lost in Translation with Bill Murray sitting up in the middle of the night in his hotel room was dead-on for trans-Pacific travel. At least I can blog.

I'm just glad I got here safely after seeing the airport collapse in France. I'd make a snide remark about French engineering, but we had our own freeway collapse in Colorado last week. Like flying isn't stressful enough without worrying about airports collapsing around you.

Leaving for Far Off Lands

I will be out for the next two weeks to far-off, exotic places, so blogging will be light to non-existant. Here is where I'm going:


South Korea, which owes its freedom to the fact that the U.S. first conquered the country that was brutally occupying it in 1945, then 5 years later sent tens of thousands of its soldiers to die when it was invaded by its northern neighbor. (It's no coincidence that S. Korea Liberation day is the same day as Victory in Japan day).

Japan, which owes its freedom to the fact that after the U.S. leveled their country, we occupied them, set up democratic reforms, and left, allowing them to turn themselves into the second largest economy in the world.


Taiwan, which owes its freedom to the fact that the U.S. not only armed the tiny nation, but let China know that any attack on Taiwan would be met with military response by U.S. forces.


Unfortunately I won't be heading to any other countries that owe its freedom to the U.S. like France, Belgium, Germany and about a dozen others. At least the three countries above are stead-fast allies of the U.S. (S. Korea is wavering a bit and it will actually be fascinating to watch what happens to U.S. relations there).

Tradeshows: Are They Worth It?

Question from David by email:

Do you have much experience with tradeshows and events? These events are about $5k each. What are your thoughts of sending a pre and post show mailer to the attendees for these events?

The mailings cost about $3. Would you recommend this for a startup?

My advice: do the tradeshow, skip the mailers.

First, the mailers: Unless your show is incredibly industry and participant specific, 95% of the mailers are going to reach people who aren't interested in your company or are the wrong people (i.e. your customer's director of sales). And the 5% who might be target customers and the right person within the company probably toss out the mailer along with all the other mailers they get before/after the trade show (I know, I have been on the receiving side of many of these).

Unless you are a consumer product company, you probably know who your potential customer base is, and it probably represents less than 100 companies. A more effective way to do mailers is to acquire a specific mailing list of these customers, keeping the number of mailers you send out and your costs to a minimum, instead of blanketing an entire trade-show list. However, my experience with non-consumer mailers is that the response/lead rate doesn't justify their expense.

On trade shows: in general, I find them very worth while, but how you do them depends on what your goals are and how the trade show is organized:

Market/Industry Data Mining - I find trade shows helpful for just seeing what is going on in an industry, so I always get a general pass and "walk the floor", look at demos, and get people in various companies to let me know what they are doing and planning. You'd be surprised on how many potential customers/partners you stumble into this way.

Booth - Getting a booth is sometimes worthwhile, IF you have something to demonstrate and if your target customers are walking the floor. If you don't have a demo, it really isn't worth it to send Biff and Bill to stand around in a booth and hand out brochures.

Private Booth/Hotel Suite - I personally like this approach IF you have a demonstration AND you know who your target customers are. In this case, telling your potential leads that you have a PRIVATE demo piques their curiosity and allows them to set a time, allowing your customer to manage his time at the show more effectively and allowing you to have the right people in the room (nothing is more frustrating than having a "whale" wander by your open booth and not having the right people there to glad hand him). It also keeps your competitor's prying eyes away from what you are doing.

I have seen companies do all three at the larger trade shows like the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) and Comdex, but this obviously depends on what you have ready to show and your budget.

Ukrainian News Roundup

Did you know that there were countries in the world besides the U.S. and Iraq? This is probably hard to believe from the front page news coverage, but it's true. So let's see some interesting developments out of Ukraine (and please don't refer to it as "The Ukraine"):

First Head of a Foreign Government Put on Trial in the U.S. Since Manuel Noriega (WSJ link requires subscription, but less detailed story here)

Hey, this is sort of interesting. I would think the papers would cover this more.

Mr. Lazarenko served as prime minister when Ukraine was the third-biggest recipient of U.S. foreign aid and a linchpin in America's grand plan to bring prosperity and democracy to the former Soviet Union.
...
Mr. Lazarenko defends himself against money laundering and wire fraud charges. The government alleges that he illegally extorted millions, depositing at least $114 million in U.S. banks.

Gives me some hope about the Iraqi Oil for Food scandal, although nearly half the charges in the 53 count indictment were thrown out. Once the U.S. gets through with him, he'll have to face Ukrainian justice.

Ukraine Says It Seized 'Red Mercury'
This is something I expect to get buried in the mainstream press, but thought I would get more play in the blogosphere.

Security agents in the southern city of Odessa seized 24 pounds of a substance they said was radioactive and identified as "red mercury," a State Security Service spokesman said Monday on condition of anonymity. He said they arrested two men from a Middle Eastern country.

"Foreign citizens were looking for an opportunity to purchase a quantity of radioactive material in Ukraine and to sell it in the Middle East," said the spokesman, who would not say what country the men were from or where the material came from. He said the arrests were made several weeks ago.

Ukraine Won't Withdraw Troops from Iraq (WAPO link requires free registration)
These guys have taken casualties and have been steadfast allies to the U.S. Go out and thank a Ukrainian for their support.

I Guess Schools Can No Longer Show Pictures of the Holocaust

I'm a little late to follow up on this one:Teachers Faulted Over Berg Video

But I was taking time to think about whether there was anything equivalent that could of been shown to me when *I* was in high school 20 years ago.

And of course there was: pictures of the Holocaust. Both the Holocaust images and the Berg video show the brutality that Western Democracies face and the total deprivation both Fascism and Islamic extremism hold towards human life. And pictures of Nazi brutality were shown in my sophomore history class and no one went into histrionics. I imagine today that Schindler's List is probably shown in a lot of classrooms.

If the Left is going to fault the teachers for showing this video - something the superintendent said might cause "unfettered emotional and psychological damage to children" - then we also need to protect them from the brutality that happened in Auschwitz.

Note: I didn't notice until after I wrote this that at the very end of the linked article that a 14 year old said the very same thing. Smart kid.

What Gas Station Boycott?

In a continuing series of entries I seem to be doing on oil...

The silly gas station "boycott" is making the rounds again. Today's effort was as effective as the last one: my lunch time fill-up today had me waiting for a few minutes at a gas station bursting at the seams with cars.

This periodic event is attempted whenever gas prices get around $2. I understand anger at rising prices - I get pissed off by the price of milk, which unlike gasoline, IS set by the government (In fact, it is illegal in California for a retailer to sell milk below a minimum price). The politicians pick up on the anger and do all sorts of political posturing without doing anything to address the problem, and I suppose it must work or they wouldn't do it.

Oil and gas prices would go down if the U.S. would pursue policies that would increase domestic production and add to worldwide supplies, such as opening drilling off the California coast and opening ANWAR (Alaska). The federal and state governments could immediately lower gas prices by lowering gasoline taxes, which range anywhere from 20% to 40% of the cost consumers pay, depending on what state they live in. But you know none of these things are going to happen (gas isn't over $2 a gallon, taxed gasoline is over $2 a gallon)

Democrats don't want oil drilling in their back yard, but they want their gas for cheap. The party that claims Iraq was wrong because it was "about the oil", tries to get its followers in a froth when oil isn't cheap while simultaneously pursuing policies that insure that the nation's supply must come from that region.

Am I missing something in their thinking?

Americans pay less for gas than any industrialized nation, but when it goes through the psychological $2 mark, the complaining starts. Yet these same consumers will happily pay $1.70 for a cup a coffee, $4 for bottled water, and $6 for a six pack of beer. So if gasoline is ranked with other goods and services people buy, it is still a bargain, even at $2 (and I won't mention $7-$9 that bars like to charge for martinis these days).

Making Political Hay?

Looks like I need a copy editor, as seen in my email this morning:

Dear Director Mitch:

Please excuse me if my poor English. In your article, you say "political hay". Please explain political hay.

This phrase is in reference to not just an American phrase, but a regional phrase even native U.S. speakers outside the South may not be familiar with (I'm in California but am a Texas native).

The phrase in question is Make Hay While the Sun Shines. This bit of advice, handed out with lots of other folksy sayings down South, refers to taking advantage of situations while events outside your control are in your favor.

In this case, there has been a rise in oil prices, which have driven up gas prices. In a free economy, oil and gas prices aren't set by the government, but are driven by a confluence of events ranging from worldwide production, worldwide demand, taxes, environmental regulations, refinery capacity, and dozens of other factors (including the political situation in the mid East. Read The Prize for a real good accounting of this).

Plus, even though gas prices are over $2, in inflation adjusted terms they haven't hit their highest point.

Every time gas goes to $2, however, the democrats go into full speech mode, denouncing the development, although these same democrats will talk to environmentalists and praise and even promise higher energy prices since that will drive down energy consumption, and thus pollution. In typical lefty hypocritical fashion they try to have it both ways.

I expect the democrats to continue to "speechify" (another regionalism) on it, while offering no suggestions on what to do about it (releasing oil from the strategic reserve won't do it, lowering oil and gas taxes will, but I doubt Kerry or Boxer will be suggesting this).

Of course creating stability in the mid East through setting up and supporting democratic reforms in tyrannical, terrorist-supporting states is another way to get a long-term fix on oil prices, but we already know Kerry is against that.

Driving Business Out of California

CNET has an interesting and wide ranging interview of outspoken CEO T.J. Sanders of Cypress Semiconductor. Here is the part that caught my eye:

You'd be insane to open a manufacturing fab in California. You need a big piece of land, you need freeway access to it for your employees, you need water and power, and you need a local government that wants you there. Then you need a local or several local schools to provide you with a relatively large number of trained people to work in the plant. You obviously want to pay wage rates that make you competitive in the world. What I described is not California.
...
The killer factor in California for a manufacturer to create, say, a thousand blue-collar jobs is a hostile government that doesn't want you there and demonstrates it in thousands of ways, through bureaucrats and regulations.

Think anyone in the California government is listening?

Why I Like High Oil Prices

While California democrats and Kerry try to make political hay out of high oil and gas prices, I have a dirty secret: I like high oil prices.

Why do I like high oil prices? Because I own oil wells! (well, percentages of some, which I will go into below) And when oil prices go up, the checks from my oil wells go up much more than what I pay at the pump.

While it may sound selfish that I enjoy extra income while you all pay more at the pump, no one is stopping you from setting up your investments so you can also benefit from high oil prices. The basic problem is that people are unfamiliar with how to do this, and then there is the problem of acquiring these investments.

First, I'll list several different ways to have ownership in an oil well:

Royalties - This is the best type of ownership to have and the hardest to get. As the name implies, this is a percentage of everything that comes out of the oil well, without any burden of the costs to manage, operate or maintain the well (as with anything, there are taxes on it). Royalties are usually given to the land owner where a company is going to drill a well, but the oil company drilling the well usually carves out a percentage or two for itself.

Working Interest - This is ownership in a well where you get a percentage of everything that comes out, but you pay a percentage of the monthly operating expenses to maintain and operate the well (including taxes). This is usually a pretty good deal, but if the well operating costs are high, or if oil prices are too low, you may find yourself paying out more each month than you are getting in. So you end up rooting for higher oil prices.

The benefits of a working interest is that if the well's total costs exceed its total income in any given year, those excess costs can be written off your ordinary income. The downside is that your liability as a working interest owner is unlimited. If the well needs a major overhaul, you may see bills that are much larger than you ever expected.

Limited Partnership - This is a structure that most people are familiar with since it is also used for other investments. There is a general partner who overseas the investment with limited partners who have no say in the operations. The downside in the investment is typically limited to the original investment.

So these three investment options are fairly straight forward and may appeal to some investors. The problem is getting into these investments. You can't call your broker and ask him to pick up a few oil royalties for you.

These types of investments are largely sold by small oil companies and operators, and only to "qualified individuals". In other words, the average person on the street couldn't qualify as an investor by SEC regulations, so the way in is to know someone in the business who can get you in on a deal (which is more or less how I got mine).

There are also a LOT of unscrupulous people and companies who have used these types of investments to scam people. Whether it was selling 500% of a deal, selling interest in wells that weren't drilled or in production that didn't exist - it has all been done. So even if you are qualified, you have to know that the people and company you are dealing with are honest.

In addition, these investments are incredibly risky. While I have all three of the investments above, I'm not mentioning the two dry holes I was involved in. This risk can be mitigated by buying existing production rather than investing in new oil wells. In essence, by buying production you are buying a bond that will fluctuate on oil prices, but there is still the risk that the production will go dry before it has paid off the investment, that oil prices will go down, or that Kerry will nationalize U.S. oil production (hey, it happened in Mexico).

This means the average investor has basically one way to hedge his portfolio against rising oil prices: buying stock in oil companies. This, however, has its own pitfalls. While ExxonMobil has appreciated 20% over the past year, Shell didn't due to accounting irregularities, which has punished the stock.



So the best bet is to buy a basket of oil stocks in order to hedge your finances against rising energy prices (there are also energy indexes, commodities, futures, and other options, but I am trying to keep it simple).

More on Mustard Gas in Iraq (satire)

A democrat friend of mine (yes, I have them, and at least one is voting Bush), sent me the following "breaking news" on the WMD found in Iraq and it's good enough to have been written by Scott Ott:

A weapon of mass destruction containing the deadly nerve agents sarin and mustard gas exploded near a U.S. military outpost just outside of Baghdad. No one on the ground was hurt and there has been no report of surrounding areas being contaminated. U.S military officials said that the mustard gas seems to have been left over from Saddam's regime.

"I knew they had the stuff." Stated President Bush, "What surprises me is the connection between Al-Qaeda and the French. This was not just regular mustard gas. It was Dijon mustard gas. The purest and most deadly form of mustard available to be used both for sandwiches as a solid and as a deadly chemical in the form of a gas."

"That is why they did not want us to go into Iraq!" Stated Donald Rumsfeld, "It all makes sense now! Those freaking French where in it all the way up to their necks. They provided Dijon mustard to the Iraqis! I love that stuff on sandwiches, but in a weapon, it is deadly. This is the beginning of the end of our relationship with the French. They have not heard the end of us."

U.S. General Samuel Kitaroff said that the bomb went off at 4pm local time in Iraq. "It was horrific. There was this dark yellowish paste all over the floor, on buildings and on top of people. I've never seen such a horrific scene in my entire life in the military. It was very spicy too. Many people started feeling sick after licking their fingers."

French President Chirac completely denied the connection between France and Al-Qeada stating that they believe that particular brand of Dijon Mustard was provided to Iraq by Kraft Foods, an American company, since the label on one of the canisters read "Grey Poupon".

Kraft Foods emphatically denied any connection between Al Qaeda and themselves stating "We are pretty sure it was those freaking French again. They just don't like us Americans."

I'm Only 21% Evil?

If you're a lefty, you probably would put my blog at a MUCH higher evil level, although it's been a while since I have been called a Nazi to my face.

On the other hand, my colleagues in the Bear Flag League probably would like to think of the Good in me.

I question these results since I consider myself much more evil than fellow blogger Master of None, but he comes out nearly twice as evil at 41%.

Hat Tip: Patriot Paradox

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

That is, of course, one of the funnier lines from Animal House.

But it brings up a good question: why did we go to war with Germany when they never attacked the U.S.? Yeah, Hitler declared war on the U.S. after we declared war on Japan, but Germany really couldn't attack the U.S. in any meaningful way except blow up a few ships in the Atlantic and maybe lob some shells at a city from a sub or ship - little more than piracy, really. Was this enough of a threat to send hundreds of thousands of men into harm's way in Europe?

In fact, the U.S. spent more manpower, money and materiel in Europe than it did against Japan, which actually attacked a U.S. military installation and killed thousands of soldiers. Germany didn't provide an "imminent threat" against the U.S., Japan did. So if today's Left were around in 1942, what would their reaction be?

The U.S. and its allies recognized the threat that Nazism posed towards democracy and mobilized to defeat it, no matter where it was. We're trying to do the same today with Islamic radicalism, but the Left either refuses to recognize the threat for what it is, or is so terrified of losing political power that they would allow this doctrine to grow and fester as long as they gain political advantage from it.

My "Statement" from the SSA

A few years ago I started receiving "statements" from the Social Security Administration. Apparently someone thought that these forms would somehow fool people into thinking that the hard-earned money that is confiscated from their paychecks is going into some sort of account instead of immediately being sent out to current recipients.

The statement has an estimate of the "benefits" I will receive upon retirement, but as everyone knows, there will be no money left after the boomers get through their retirement, so I know the whole piece of paper is a political lie.

One thing that IS accurate, however, is a listing of my earnings since I started working. While I have this data in my tax forms, these are all buried away in some file cabinet, so it is good to see it listed out (you have to take it from the "Medicare taxable Earnings" since Social Security taxable earnings are maxed out at a certain threshold, although I expect this to go away eventually).

I thought I would graph my yearly income, taking the data from the time I started "real" work (not counting college work, summer jobs, etc.). I should note that the numbers don't include capital gains, limited partnerships and other investments I have which aren't taxed by Medicare or SS, but these wouldn't change the graph that much. I've also normalized the data, making the data a percentage of the highest income I ever attained since I don't want to advertise what I make, plus I added an estimate for this year:

Some interesting observations:

o My income went down every time I joined a start-up (twice) since the whole idea was to bet on a lower salary in return for equity in the company. Both bets failed.

o The tech boom was very good to me with in-the-money stock options. I just wish I knew where all that money went (hint: nearly half went back to the SSA, the U.S.A, and California government).

o I took a beating with unemployment during the tech bust, but the upside in stock options more than made up the loss (this is probably the exception with tech workers).

o If I discount the stock options and put in a trend line from the time I started work until today, there is a fairly linear growth pattern. I just hope I can keep the trend going.

Where's the Copy Editor?

The FBI interrogated a beheaded man? That is what this actual headline reads over at Fox News:

FBI grilled beheaded man in 2002 as part of Moussaoui probe


Actually, it reads like they had a BBQ.

Update: I get results? The headline now reads: Berg's Final Days Still a Mystery;
FBI grilled him about Moussaoui link

Navel Gazing for Career Advancement

I am sure there are some helpful hints here, but my jaded, sardonic view of the world found it bordering on self-parody.

Improving Me - Your Site to Self Improvement!

May I suggest the articles on "Let Go of the Clutter" and "Choose to be Happy"?

Jobs Data Lost in the News or Purposely Not Reported?

Did anyone notice the jobs numbers that came out last week?

The Director of the Senate Joint Action Committee sent this email out to the blogosphere (Note: I got this forwarded to me on a BFL mailing list and the group assumes, but has not yet verified, that the email is real. The economic data above is definitely real):

Subject: Question for Bloggers

Greetings, Bloggers! I'm interested in getting some honest feedback from you all if you have time. One thing that we've been pondering here at the JEC is the degree to which the good economic news of late has being drowned out by concerns about Iraq and other external events.

...

What are your thoughts? And what do you believe are the best ways to get any given message through or even around important event-driven news like that about Iraq? Is it even possible or do you think that news about "primary" events has to subside before news of the "secondary" events gets out? Am I wrong in thinking that good economic news has been obscured by news from Iraq?

My opinion? There was definitely some drowning out with the various events over the past week in Iraq, but I think part of it is the reluctance by the mainstream press to push economic news that is favorable to Bush and negative to Kerry. After all, even Kerry's misery index got more press play than the jobs data above.

I Made an Accurate Prediction?

I predicted (or wished) that Yahoo would increase mail storage as a response to Gmail.

They're doing it.

Hat Tip: Techdirt

Why We Can't Trust the Country to the Angry Left

Islamic terrorists kill his son, and the avowed anti-war activist blames...Bush of course.

(Reuters) - The father of Nick Berg, the American beheaded in Iraq, directly blamed President Bush and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on Thursday for his son's death.

"My son died for the sins of George Bush and Donald Rumsfeld. This administration did this," Berg said in an interview with radio station KYW-AM..."They did not know what they were doing. They killed their best friend."

Yes, a group of people who's only mission in life is to kill anyone not Muslim would have been friends with your Jewish son, if only they weren't made to kill him by Bush and team.

Even allowing some off-the-cuff speaking due to grief, this sort of thinking just ignores the reality of the situation. He and others on the Left really think that there aren't people in the world who would kill them if given half a chance. And changing foreign policy or using the UN won't change their desire to kill Americans because it isn't America's politics that is creating their hate - it's the fact we aren't Muslim. And unless America changes to their special brand of Islam, they will still want to kill us, no matter what we do.

The inability to recognize the situation and pretend that "being nice" will make Muslim fanatics suddenly love us is dangerous and naive, and a reason why Kerry should be kept as far away from the White House as possible.

Dueling Databases Within Organizations

I received my BS at Rice University. I also received my MBA from Rice University. So imagine my surprise to get the following email:

Dear Rice Graduate:

The Rice MBA for Executives is pleased to announce that we have reserved space for Rice alumni in our class that begins this July. As a Rice graduate (Mitch: a DOUBLE Rice graduate, thank-you very much), you have proven you can meet our high academic standards, and you have gained significant work experience since graduation. I am writing to invite you to apply to the MBA for Executives Class of 2006, using a streamlined admissions process created especially for Rice alumni.

Obviously this was sent to me since I was in the undergraduate database, but there was no effort to do a cross-check with the biz school database.

While I find this amusing, if something analogous were to happen in an organization that deals with customers, it could make customers doubt the company's efficiency and destroy good will. Basically this seems like a problem that could have been easily avoided.

Rummy-O-Meter Blue and Falling

This is the first political laugh I have had since the Abu Ghraib story broke:

Hat Tip: The Smoking Room

Another Movie and Director I Have to Boycott?

What a shame. This was one of the few summer movies I was planning to see:

The world premiere of the Hollywood big-budget epic "Troy" in Berlin Sunday saw German-born director Wolfgang Petersen draw parallels between the Trojan war and the US-led war in Iraq.

Petersen...said he has been taken aback by the way the conservative rightwing has taken over the White House with a militaristic agenda

But then again, the Germans think Roosevelt was militaristic. I suppose he doesn't want any hard-earned money from a militaristic fellow like me anyway.

After the mediocre reviews of Van Helsing, I now hope Toby Mcguire can keep his mouth shut by the time Spidy II opens so I can see at least one movie this summer.

I'm a prime candidate for I Robot since I am a fan of the books, but I haven't heard any buzz about it yet (check out the web site - it's set up like it's a real site for a robot company) and I am a little dubious about the casting of Will Smith.

Hat Tip: USS Clueless

Google Taking the MS Route on Blogger

I take a lot of flack for using Blogger, but there is just a certain amount of inertia after being on this service for over half a year. Besides, for just about anything Blogger lacks in functionality, there always seems to be an outside company/vendor/person willing to take up the slack. For example, my comments are provided by Haloscan, my RSS feed is provided by Feedburner, and so on.

Blogger upgraded its service this weekend and besides a different look for the editing screens, comments are now provided (I'll decide later whether to convert over or not). I bet over time more and more of the outside services provided to Blogger users will eventually be pulled into the service itself (exception: RSS feed since Google has put their bets on Atom).

This is similar to what Microsoft did with its operating system. All sorts of little pilot fish fed off the morsels left behind by MS, but over time the MS shark ate the pilot fish, absorbing more and more of the third party functionality into its OS.

I am not making a judgment call since it is a perfectly viable business plan to provide "one stop shopping" to customers. It is just interesting to watch, especially as Google nears it IPO.

If Memory Serves Me Right...

...I first saw Iron Chef at a New Years Eve party, of all places. It was on in the background and after catching my eye, I had someone explain what was going on. I was immediately hooked, partly from my interest and experience with Japanese culture. My first thought upon seeing the show was "That is soooooooo Japanese."

Shamelessly copying the Iron Chef format, there is now Iron Blogger. Like the cooking show, the blog has four bloggers representing the four types of "cuisine": Liberal, Conservative, Libertarian and Green.

I just wish Chairman Kaga were MC'ing it

Ghosts of Businesses Past

In 1999 a small group of us left a large semiconductor company, raised venture capital, and started a small semiconductor company, which was easy to do in the late 90s. We were motivated, excited, and were going to change the world. We raised $15 million in two rounds and grew from about half a dozen people crammed into a small, non-descript office to 39 people in a "Taj Mahal" location, plus three other people in two overseas sales offices.

Our Taj Mahal was located in a "science and technology center" near the University of California, Irvine. It housed two other start-ups, which were springing up everywhere in the late 90s. The front door of the building was literally 50 feet from a Starbucks, which became an official meeting room for the company (actual email: Marcomm Meeting, 3pm, Starbucks).

In May 2002, after trying to sell us, the venture capitalists unceremoniously pulled the plug on the company. The shut-down became ugly, with various factions breaking out, lawsuits flying, and friendships frayed. To this day there are colleagues who won't talk to one another. The liquidators emptied our suite of everything not nailed down, and in the following 12 months the two other start-ups in the building felt the pang of the bursting technology bubble, leaving an empty building next door to the Starbucks (we all joked about taking a job at the Starbucks since they always seemed to be hiring).

During the ensuing two years I have gone to that same Starbucks several times a week since it is the closest one to my child's nanny, where I drop off my daughter every morning. I never really thought about the subtle irony of going to my old office building nearly every day for the past two years since I try not to dwell on what might have been.

This month is the two year anniversary of the shut-down, so last Friday I decided to dwell on the past. After getting my coffee, I walked the 50 feet from the Starbucks to the empty building and to my surprise found both the building and the former suite unlocked.

Since no other tenet had moved in during the last two years, the place was the same, minus the furniture. The offices, including my own, were smaller than I remembered. The liquidators, in their haste to clean out the office, left a few whiteboards on the walls, so imagine my surprise to see my own two-year old handwriting in the marketing conference room, listing strategies to save the company. On the VP Operation's whiteboard was scrawled Mitch B&W BWD, a two-year old action item that still hasn't been and never will be executed.

As I went by each office I tried to remember who sat there and what they are doing today. To my surprise, after only two years I had trouble remembering some of the layout ("Who sat here? Wait, that was the copy room."). Everyone I know is working, but there are a few people I am not in contact with as a part of the fallout.

While this was a little weird, with thousands of start-ups that bit the dust during the tech burst, I am sure that my experience is not unique, especially in silicon valley which had far more start-ups and still has lots of empty office space that hasn't been refilled.

How to Play Hookie from Work

I'm at Headquarters today and needed to talk to someone about a couple things he owed me. He never answered his phone so I went by his office every few hours to see if he was in, and he never was. But I know he was at work today because his keys, wallet, and sunglasses were all on his desk....but they never moved positions throughout the whole day!.

I forgot about the old fake keychain trick. This only works in medium to large organizations that have lots of meetings. Here's what you do:

1. Get an extra keychain and put all those junk keys you don't need any more and an extra car key on it.

2. Get an extra wallet and fill it with a few credit cards you don't use anymore. Maybe a few bucks.

3. For that extra bit of believability, get an extra pair of sunglasses (cheap knock-offs okay)

4. Come in the morning, turn on your computer and turn OFF the screen saver. Throw keys, wallet, sunglasses on the top of your desk, as if you got in late to the office for a meeting, threw everything down, and ran out.

5. Take real keychain, wallet and sunglasses and leave building. Play golf, go to movie, etc.

6. Everyone will assume you are in a meeting.

I actually never tried it - I just leave without using all the props - but it IS effective. The funny thing is that the person who told me this trick was my actual manager at the time, so if I saw a set of keys on his desk, I knew not to go looking for him.

Don't Like the Sec Def? Join Army, Commit Crime

According to Volokh, they would like to make it easy to unseat a Secretary of Defence. According to them, in order to force a Sec Def to resign, all someone needs to do is:

1. Join Army

2. Commit Crime

3. Have said crime filmed and plastered all over the press

Volokh apparently believes that all illegal activity committed by a few people in the hundreds of thousands in the military should be held accountable to the Sec Def.

Just In Time Marketing

Many people are familiar with Just in Time, or JIT, manufacturing. This is the strategy of having manufacturing materials show up at the assembly plant "just in time" to start the manufacturing process. For the manufacturer, it means holding less inventory and requiring less space for holding that inventory, thus releasing cash for more useful endeavors. JIT is now practiced by the vast majority of the world's manufacturers. I have even seen assembly sites where the manufacturer's supplier has warehouses on-site, with the components being moved less than 100 feet from the supplier to the manufacturer- the manufacturer is billed only after the component or raw material is moved that 100 feet.

Interestingly enough, it seems that Samsung doing something analogous in cellphone product development, sort of a Just in Time Marketing (a Google search of the term finds a few consulting companies using the name and a few "internet" marketing schemes, but I don't find this very obvious phrase being used in the way I am about to describe).

As noted before, cellphones are becoming as much a fashion accessory as communications tool. This makes the success of any given model hard to forecast. Samsung's strategy is thus to do the following:

1. Design as many models as possible

2. Do a limited production run for each model, shipping enough out to the channel to give consumers a "taste"

3. See which models take off

4. Quickly ramp into mass production the winners.

5. Don't create any more of the losers, selling off any inventory at fire-sale prices.

This strategy turns the standard product development process on its head. The typical electronic development cycle requires all sorts of volume forecasts, ROI (return on investment) analyses, bidding from suppliers, setting up the assembly line, and several other major steps. In this case, Samsung is borrowing a page from the fashion industry, putting as many designs out there as possible, even if it means eating the cost on the losers.

Unlike the fashion industry, however, there are vast capital expenditures, complicated components and other complications with creating a cellphone. This means that Samsung had to create a supply chain that is somewhat different than the standard manufacturing flow:

1. Common "Base" Design - Similar to different car lines using the same chassis, Samsung has to require that all phones have a "base design" that each model has in common. This means all the basic communication "chips" in the phone and how they are connected are the same between the different lines, creating a common supply chain for about 75% of each phone, no matter what its external design may be.

2. Quick Design Cycles - For this strategy to work, Samsung has to constantly put new models on the market, meaning it has cellphone design cycle is measured in months instead of half-years and longer for many of its competitors.

3. Flexible Suppliers - While the suppliers in the "base" design have a fairly steady demand forecast (some models will succeed and some will fail, but the overall volume will be fairly constant), those suppliers who supply the "non-base" features like cameras, GPS or other non-standard options have to contend with the possibility of being designed into a flop, meaning no further demand from Samsung, or the phone becoming a home run and having to immediately ramp to millions of units a month. While this might not sound like a big deal in theory, it is a very big deal in practice. If a vendor has to be able ramp to mass production immediately, the manufacturing capacity has to be reserved or inventory built. If the Samsung product is a flop, the result is idle capacity or excess inventory - something that can end careers. Obviously, this forces suppliers to be flexible and creative in supporting Samsung, which can be a differentiating feature in sales negotiations.

Strategically, this allows Samsung to try many different designs since this strategy has failure built into it. A possible extension of this strategy is "semi-custom" phones. Consumers can custom order a PC from Dell today, so why not allow consumers to specify the design and specifications of their cellphone?

I Worked on Cinco de Mayo!

I obviously work for an oppressive organization which is not inclusive in its holidays. Although I do think we get Buddha's birthday off...

Of course we live in the U.S. and not Mexico, which seems to be lost on Kerry:

Kerry celebrated Cinco de Mayo — one of Mexico's most important national holidays — at Woodrow Wilson High School, where he criticized Bush's education policies. He sprinkled his remarks with the Spanish that he's been learning on cassette tapes.

Bush "promised in the No Child Left Behind Act that billions of dollars would be coming to America. El rompio las promesas," Kerry said, then translated. "He broke his promises to America."

"We pray that the next Cinco de Mayo, they will celebrate here in the streets of the United States of America," he said.

I bet he doesn't pray that the 4th of July is celebrated in Mexico or anywhere in the world.

If a Tree Falls in Suburbia...

...does anyone NOT hear it?

I had a Monterey Pine (Pinus radiata) in my back yard that died this winter. The sad part is that I didn't notice it until my neighbor pointed it out to me. How could I not notice a giant dead tree in my backyard? Well, here is the view I usually see - the trunk (the dead one is the one on the right).

I guess I just don't gaze skyward that often from my patio. This is what the crown looked like, and it was definitely dead.




Everyone had an opinion on what happened. The neighbor, who is like Middle Age Man from SNL, thinks it was pine beetles, although there was no indication of them and this species isn't listed as one of the targeted trees. The tree removal guy thought it was just age: when it's time to go, it's time to go, even for trees. The few web sites I perused on this species note that there is a fungus killing this tree, but I found no indications of that, so I am going with "age" as the reason for its death.

I am not particularly upset. While I like trees, I thought this one wasn't very pretty and it wreaked havoc with my fence and my plumb tree, which I am particularly fond of. So from both a need and a landscaping perspective, I had a crew come in this morning and take it down. They started cutting from the crown. Note the utility lines going through the tree (cable and phone, but no electrical), so once the crown is gone they cut it back further to get it away from the utility lines.




Now it was ready for the coup de gras:




Timber!





By my estimates the tree was 38 years old, which is about the age of the house.



The whole process took only 2.5 hours of constant chain sawing, so hopefully the neighbors weren't too annoyed. I am going to replace the fence and re-landscape the backyard later this summer, so I left the stump in until that project gets going.

More Bad News for Kerry, Part XLVII

FACTORY ORDERS SURGED 4.3% in March, providing further evidence of a firming recovery in the U.S. manufacturing sector. Orders for durable goods rose 5%. (WSJ link requires paid subscription).

So several of Kerry's planks keep getting knocked over:

1. Economy - Even the dems have to admit the economy is looking pretty darn good. So good that even tax receipts are up, narrowing the deficit.

2. Jobs - This number, too, is improving and getting better. While he will exploit individual stories and point towards layoffs (there are always layoffs and unemployed, even during the very top of boom years), the overall numbers will keep improving, pulling up consumer confidence.

3. Iraq - Quick, what's the difference between Kerry and Bush over Iraq? The U.N. And the U.N. is gaining a lot of credibility lately, isn't it? He is even backing off the "no WMD" meme. Granted, there is a lot that can happen in Iraq between now and November, but I think things will improve, not get worse.

This is leaving Kerry sniveling about education and the cost of college. Should be interesting to see what other ideas he tries to come up with as the economy improves further over the next six months (healthcare costs will be one of them).

Light Blogging for a While

Work. Travel. Family commitments. Yes, there is life outside of blogging and I will need to address it. So expect light blogging for the next two weeks as I travel to exotic locales, but I will post pics when I return.

Update: Trip postponed until later this month.