A Flawed Test

Business Pundit points to a Marketing IQ Test. Being a marketing guy, I took it. The problem with the test is that the "IQ" is based on a single book - by the author of the test. And if you don't agree with the book, you'll score low on the test.

For example: True or False? Line extensions are a very risky way to introduce new products.

I said false. They are probably the lowest risk method of introducing new products. Here is how they scored my response (emphasis mine).

You said false. The answer is true. Line extensions are risky for several reasons, but particularly because they tend to cannibalize the present product. (Chap. 7)

Hey, dude, you are SUPPOSED to cannibalize your own products. If you don't your competition will do it for you.

So if you are interested, take the test, but keep in mind it is just a barometer of how much your opinions match the author's and nothing more. There isn't much intelligence in the test at all.

King Fu Young Fool

The air was heavy with the smell of incense, and hundreds of candles flickered throughout the room. Even so, it was hard to see the small, old man, seated in meditation on a dais at the far end of the room. Even though his eyes were closed and I entered silently, he spoke, knowing I was there. "You may approach, Young Grasshopper."

Silently as I could I approached, bowed low to show respect, and sat on the floor below the dais. Not being flexible enough, my attempts to sit in the Lotus Position failed, forcing me to sit in what my daughter would call the "criss-cross, apple sauce" position, which is the PC equivalent of what I grew up calling "Indian Style".

The old man opened his eyes. They were opaque, and he was obviously blind, but he looked directly at me. "You have a question."

"Yes, master. My martial arts is good." I paused and bowed my head low. "But not good enough!" Maybe it was the incense, or maybe it was my crossed legs cutting off the blood circulation to my brain, but it seemed that the sounds coming out of my mouth did not move in unison with my lips, like I was dubbed or something. I noticed as he spoke next that it was the same with him.

"Long and arduous the path is. But strong you are. Better you will become!"

Did he sound like Yoda just then? And a badly dubbed one at that? I shook my head, trying to clear it. "But, master, what can I do to improve more quickly? I have lost so much time, starting my training so late in life."

"Better late to start than not to start at all! And shortcuts there are not. However, a way to lighten your journey and quicken your pace I can show." I leaned forward to hear his next words. "Through other forms of recreation your skills will improve."

This is not the secret I was expecting. "Recreation? Improving my martial arts?"

"Question not my methods! Southern California is where you live and recreation is what you have!"

"Sorry, Master."

"First, endurance you must improve. And for this I see a path. A bike path. Near your home. You must peddle, Young One, to build your legs and strengthen your heart."

"Bike. Path. Peddle. Got it."

"Next, flexibility improve it must. Sucks, yours does."

"Sorry, Master."

"Yoga you must take to improve it."

"Yoga? I don't think they let Republicans in. Especially meat-eating ones."

"A connection with Bikram I have. Favor he owes me."

"Gotya."

"Last, balance and agility must improve. Ride the waves you must. Surf you must begin."

"Surfing? But I can barely walk down a sidewalk without tripping."

"Start off with a Long board. It's actually not that hard. Start off with an eight, maybe nine-footer, and work your way down from there. The bad part is transporting something that big since that is where dings usually occur."

I furrowed my brow. Did he just lose the Yoda cadence?

"I mean, occur dings do while transporting. SUV you must consider."

"Yes, master."

My eyes grew heavy and closed. I heard his voice echo in my head as I saw the picture appear. "Cross Training this is called. It improves talents in one area by developing them in another."

"And when I have mastered these other talents?"

"Then your Martial Arts will be vastly improved."

I opened my eyes but the Master was gone. I got up and began my search for a bike, a board and a Yoga mat to continue my journey.

A Blast From the Past

I had drinks this evening with one of my best friends from high school - and someone I hadn't seen in nearly 20 years. That might seem strange to some - having a best friend and then losing touch - but that was the way it happened. He went off to California, of all places, to go to Stanford, and I went to school at Rice. We hooked up a couple of times during college, but we ended up going our own ways and losing touch.

When the mass email notice went out for our 20 year reunion, I noticed his email was on the list and that it was for a company in Silicon Valley. Since I am in NoCal every week and spend the night periodically, I contacted him and said we should go out for drinks some time. We finally hooked up this evening.

It was sort of weird hanging out in a bar looking for someone I hadn't seen in over half my lifetime. I wasn't sure if I would recognize him, but it wasn't a problem, even if he was almost completely gray. He told me I looked the same, but thinner.

We talked and talked and talked for two hours straight, the decades melting away in a matter of minutes. We chatted about our wives and kids, but we spent most of the time talking about the past: Who had you seen from high school in the past 20 years? Who do you think will still be hot at the reunion? Who will have lost all their looks since being 18? We talked about our high school loves and what happened to them, and wondered aloud why the four years of high school held more significance over almost any other four years of our lives.

In short, it was good to reconnect with someone who was once a close friend. We found that after two decades we still had the the ability to connect, which isn't the case for other high school acquaintances I have run into since 1986. So I count this as a "rediscovery" of a lost friend, which I think is a rare occurrence.

Glad I Got Mine Early

Tamiflu has stopped being shipped to the U.S. public, I suppose so governments can stockpile it instead of individuals: Flu Drug Maker Suspends U.S. Shipments.

So I get a points for thinking ahead and getting a personal stockpile a few months ago.

Bragging Rights on the Director's Blog

Similar to the post below where I have to give up bragging rights when my team loses, it looks like I have to do the same on the Miers nomination.

Note that I was never "for" Miers - I just thought that she should get her fair hearing before the Senate, at which time I would have made my decision. I felt there was not enough information out there to make a decision - and certainly not enough to oppose her outright - but many on the Right thought this lack of information was a defacto reason to oppose her.

Anyone who is nominated for a position should be able to get their up or down vote in the Senate, but now the partisans on the right join their colleagues on the left in being comfortable in creating an atmosphere of shrill yelling and name calling in order to get nominees to withdraw before they had a chance to defend themselves.

So I guess what people want is for the Supreme Court to be a set of high priests - exalted sages removed from the common man - who interpret this strange "Constitution". We poor commoners without a law degree and years of cloistered study will never be qualified to comprehend this strange document and therefore not even qualified to comment on what their rulings are.

Bragging Rights in the Director Household

I am originally from Houston, where I was born and spent the first 30 years of my life. Mrs. Director is from Chicago, where she was born and spent the first 20-something years of her life. So, although we live in California, we both took a keen interest in the World Series this year.

Now I have to give credit where credit is due, especially since the lousy Astros - in their first World Series appearance ever - couldn't even win a SINGLE #$%(* GAME!!!

So in a sort of losing bet, here it goes:

THE WHITE SOX ARE THE WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS OF 2005!!! GO SOX!!!!!!!

(that hurt)

Just One Word: Plastics

Think of computer chips as hard, brittle things? That idea will seem quaint in the future: Epson Develops the World's First Flexible TFT SRAM


"Plastic chips", as I like to call them, are just getting out of the lab, but I think they will be common place within a decade. This will allow the creation of all sorts of cool consumer goods than can fold, be rolled up and other uses we haven't thought of, although I would first like to see an iPod nano that won't scratch so easily.

Marketing Trivia, Trademark Category

I can't think of anything worth blogging on today - there's stuff developing, but I can't blog on it yet - so how about a small bit of marketing trivia?

The fast food chain "Arby's" is the phonetic spelling of the initials "R" and "B", which is short for "roast beef", their signature sandwich.

So now you have something to remark on when your officemates are arguing about which fast food chain to go to for lunch.

AMD Hands Their Technology Over to the Chicomms

When that guided missile hits the U.S. warship protecting Taiwan, you'll be able to thank AMD: AMD, China Ink x86 Agreement.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) licensed its AMD x86 microprocessor design technology to the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST) and Peking University, during a ceremony in Beijing today.
...
The licensing of core x86 AMD Geode processor technology to Peking University via collaboration with MOST is expected to contribute to China's development of low-power and embedded x86 processor technology in the Greater China region.

Note that licensing a processor is much different than selling a chip. They are giving the Chinese the inside workings of advanced processor design. So expect the Chinese to put this great low-power processor technology inside low power cruise missiles, low power radar defenses, and other low-power military tools.

Besides helping the Chicomms keep control over their military interests in the region, AMD is also handing over one of the crown jewels of their intellectual property. One has to wonder what AMD is thinking.

In addition, note at the end of the article that AMD is paying a bribe to the "Ministry of Education", which I assume is the dictatorship's agency for keeping their population thinking correctly (and blocking websites and certain words from the Chinese internet). It wasn't enough that the company had to hand their technology over to them.

Going Against the Crowd

I heard Batman Begins was a good flick, so was happy when it arrived from Netflix. The first 20 minutes lived up to expectations, but then it went downhill fast. The middle third it was simply bad, the last third was awful. If I were in a theater I might have walked out. I remember several bloggers I respect really liking it, and the reviews on IMDB are overwhelmingly positive, so I was surprised at first. But then I remembered that this is par for the course for me.

I figured out at an early age that I tend go against the crowd; that the my tastes, likes and dislikes go against popular opinion and what is trendy. It's not that I try to against popular opinion in some sort of effort to be superior, it's just that my natural tastes don't jibe with everyone else's. So along with thinking Batman Begins sucks, here are some other recent pop trends that I can't stand:

• I think body piecing is disgusting
• I think anyone over 22 who gets a tattoo is an idiot, especially women
• I have never watched a reality show and don't get people who do
• Rap sucks
• Those plastic bracelets that men are wearing around? Stupid.
• People who wear shower shoes (aka flip-flops) in airports and anywhere else that is not on their way to or from a beach or pool look like trailer trash.
• I like women to have some meat on their bones, and can't stand the fashion towards skinny, anorexic women. For example I think Renee Zellweger was much more attractive in Bridget Jones's Diary than in Chicago.
  
  
  

And if your opinion is different than mine? (Shrugs shoulders). It's not like any of the above has any importance in the world, but in 20 years most of the above will be out of fashion, so maybe I am just more on the leading edge.

Stupid Interviewing Mistakes

My consulting client has something on the order of two dozen job openings, all in engineering and program management. This is obviously bringing in a large number of candidates to interview at their offices and I am hearing some of the more humorous interviewing stories. I even helped out on a interview yesterday, which made for an interesting conversation: "I don't really work here as an employee, but let me tell you what a great company this is!"

Here are a few of the more surprising interviewing mistakes I heard about. Keep in mind these are not new hires or fresh graduates, but people who are walking in with resumes that have something on the order of 10 years of experience:

• Dress Properly - 99% of the companies in Silicon Valley have a "casual dress" culture, including my client. However, for a job interview people should still dress professionally no matter what they think the dress code is. One candidate ignored this rule and walked into the interview in jeans and sneakers. While this dress would be perfectly acceptable once he had the job, it sent a red flag to the interviewers on this person's judgment and seriousness about the wanting the position. He wasn't called back.

• Know Your Resume - One candidate had good interviews with the group leader and other engineers in the department then got kicked upstairs to talk to the VP. The VP noticed on his resume that he had recently won an award for a paper he had written. "What was the paper on?", the VP asked. "Oh. I don't remember." was the response. This sent up all sort of red flags: Did he lie on his resume? How could he not remember what he got an award on? If he was nervous and temporarily forgot, what does this say about his ability to work under pressure? The incident basically raised too many questions, and the candidate was shelved.

• Don't Bad Mouth Your Current Employer - At least not until you HAVE the new job. During the interview process if you are asked "Why do you want to leave your current company?", don't answer "Because my boss is an ass&$(#". Acceptable responses are "I am not growing in my current position", "I am looking for a new challenge", and other similar responses. The person interviewing you KNOWS that you really mean "I want to make more money", or "My boss is an ass&$(#", but the real information here is your ability to act professionally and function in an interview. You can tell everyone about your current job horror stories over beers some time after you actually start the new position.
  

These might seem like arbitrary rules - they are - but there is no excuse for an experienced candidate not knowing them. If it makes you feel any better, think of the interviewing process as dating. For the first date you better be dressed nicely, take her to a nice place, and be on your best behavior. After six months THEN you can hang out in your boxers on the couch with a beer in one hand, scratching yourself with the other. You can be yourself eventually, but you got to clean up for that first date.

A Good Product for the Mobile Worker: Tide To Go

One of my cousins works at a P&G ad company and sent me a product sample bag that included Tide To Go. This is a marker-looking device that promises to clean up stains and spills off your clothes when you are out in public or at the office.

This seemed like a good product for me since I hate going around in public with stains on my shirt or tie, but at the same time seem prone to spills. Since it is the size of a large ball point pen, I threw it into my computer bag and forgot about it.

I had the chance to try it out today. As I sipped my airport Starbucks this morning on my weekly trip to Silicon Valley, some of my java leaked from under the cup lid right onto my white shirt. I remembered the "cleaning marker" and quickly applied it to the coffee stain. For added measure I also blotted it with some clean water. Half an hour later the damp spot on my shirt was dry and there is no sign of the coffee stain. I had a clean shirt again.

So a thumbs up from Director Mitch, with a recommendation for everyone who is prone to spills to throw one into their desk or computer bag.

The Lie of the 80s

I've... just made a terrible mistake. I'll never get to college. My life is ruined. - Tom Cruise as "Joel", Risky Business (1983)

One shouldn't look for deep meaning in this movie, but it does touch on one of the promises to the Children of the 80's: do well in high school, get into a good college, get out in the business world, and you would make it Big Time. Guaranteed. So the keys to the executive suite all start with which college you get into, which is the point Joel is making in the movie.

And it was a lie.

I'm not saying that one shouldn't study and work hard. You can live a nice middle-class lifestyle if you do. It's just that Big Time success isn't predicated on any of that. That, I have decided, is more about luck, or fate, or just being at the right place at the right time. I've seen too many idiot millionaires, dumb-ass VPs, incompetent CEOs, and other clueless rich people to come to any other conclusion. And these were the people who in the 80s were out partying while I was sitting in my room studying calculus.

And it is the realization of this lie that I have decided to focus on things other than work lately. Because hard work within an organization doesn't get you ahead. Giving up weekends in order to get work done doesn't get you a promotion. For those people who don't have to do these things just to keep the job they have, they're just in their room studying calculus again; one of the suckers.

And if you do eke out some sort of raise to the next level, after a certain point the government takes away so much that incremental improvements in income do nothing to improve your lifestyle. It is only HUGE increases in income and wealth that make a difference, so why kill yourself to make another $20,000 a year if the government is just going to take away $10,000 of it? What's that additional $10,000 going to buy you? A quarter of a car?

I have gotten to a point where my income has gotten me to a point where my lifestyle is comfortable, but not lavish. And instead of trading in any more time for incremental income, I am using my time to do things that I find more interesting, or fun, or get me into better shape. Because if I do make it Big Time it will be because of something I stumble into, luck upon, or land when calling someone about something else - which is how I have landed my last several jobs. It won't be because I sat 12 hours a day in a office "working", so why bother doing it?

So while some of my peers might make 25% more than me (or 13% after taxes), they're stuck in an office all day today. Me? I'm going to the beach.

UPromise? UJoking!

A month after Little Miss Director was born I opened up a 529 Savings Plan. The combination of automatic monthly contributions, occasional additions from family members, and some pretty decent growth (15% return over the past 12 months) has gotten her college nest egg up to about $20K in four years. Not bad so far, although I am still worried whether it will be enough when we pack her off in fourteen years.

Figuring every little bit would help - and figuring there was no downside - I went ahead and signed up for UPromise. This is basically a customer loyalty plan: you sign up, and whenever you spend money in certain places or on certain things, a very small percentage of your purchase goes into your UPromise account, which can then be swept into your 529 Savings Plan.

I treat promotions like this like coupons: I am not going to let it effect my buying decisions, but if I am going to purchase the item anyway, I might as well get the savings. So I signed up and linked it to my phone bill, which I pay anyway, and linked it to our grocery card, which Mrs. Director uses each week anyway. So we go about purchasing stuff like we always would, and if we get any UPromise money, all the better - but are not going to change what we buy in order to get the measly savings.

After ten months in the program, the total of my UPromise account: $10. That's right, the program is earning me a whopping buck every month.

Now, if I found a Hamilton on the street I would certainly pick it up. The problem I have with the program is how it markets itself: a FANTASTIC way to save money for your child's education, which is bullhockey. The best way to save for your child's education is to put money away each month automatically over a period of years and years. Period. All this program is about is making money for the companies linked to it.

In fact, there is a good chance that people who sign up for this program end up with a net loss. For example, you can get a credit card linked to the program that puts a percentage of whatever you purchase into a UPromise account. But like all credit card programs of this ilk, the percentage they charge in interest on your credit card balance - which 60% of all Americans carry - is far beyond the pittance they put into the UPromise account (they do not advertise what the interest rate is, but I am assuming it is north of 18%).

So I will go ahead and get my buck a month - it isn't costing me anything - but I just hope people realize what this program is all about, and what they really need to do to save for college.

Becoming a True Californian: Surfing

Long time reader Rice noted that I had become a true Californian when I started Yoga. He was almost right. It's really happening with my entry into the world of surfing.

Surfing was the last thing I thought of when I moved to Southern California seven years ago, but a confluence of events got me more and more interested in the sport:

• Proximity to the Beach - I have been living within two miles of the surf since 1998. I thought that was really neat at first, and I used to go down an watch the waves roll in. After a while, however, the ocean just becomes a part of the landscape. Instead of sitting there contemplating the waves, you want to go do something in the waves.

• Boogie Boarding - So after staring at the ocean for a few years, I started to go in and do stuff in it. And one of the easiest things to do is boogie boarding.
  
  For those of you not near an ocean, this is basically surfing on the stomach. The board is softer and shorter than a typical surfboard, and it is something one can learn to do in about an hour. The hardest part is just learning how to "catch a wave". Once you have that down, it is a pretty fun time.
  
  There are, however, a two problems with this sport:
  
  1. Low in the pecking order - For boogie borders who go out in the morning when the surfers are out, you find that, in the pecking order of the ocean, you are the low man on the totem pole. From highest to lowest it goes: short boarders, long boarders, boogie borders. That's not to say that the surfing community isn't friendly - I have actually found it be very friendly and open - it's just that when you are out there waiting for waves to roll in you feel pretty inadequate floating out there with the boogie board when you are surrounded by surfers.
  
  2. A Taste of the Real Thing - Most boogie borders catch the bottom of the wave, which makes for some rough riding. Once you catch the top of a wave, like a surfer, you find out that it is a smooth, feathery ride, almost like floating on air. Once you experience that, you think "THIS is what surfing is about!", and realize that if you catch a wave right, standing up actually won't be that hard.

• A Greater Need for Balance - One thing that is pushing me into surfing is a desire to work on my balance and agility. I have found that my balance has vastly improved through my martial arts, but I wanted to find an outlet where I could cross-train it through another sport, and this seemed like the way to go (more on this in a later posting).

• The Middle Aged Sport - One of the things that most people would find surprising about surfing is that isn't a sport just for teenagers and young adults. You find there are a lot of middle aged guys out in the waves in oversized wetsuits specially designed to shape over an overhanging gut. Part of this demographic, of course, are the Boomers who first brought surfing to national attention and who are now in their 50s. And they're still going out regularly. Another reason, which my neighbor - a serious short boarder- brought up, is that those of us who can afford houses near the ocean - and the most likely to pick up the sport - are going to be more affluent and older.

• A Friend in the Sport - When starting any new activity it helps when a friend is already involved. So I am lucky that my short-boarding neighbor has taken me under his wing and is showing me the ropes of surfing, where to go for the waves, where to shop, who to talk to, and the terminology.

While my buddy is willing to take me out, I don't want to burden him with teaching me so I am starting surf lessons through the City of Newport Beach, which has got to be one of the only cities in the country that offers surf lessons to its citizens. I have a lesson each week over the next four weeks, so it will be interesting to see how fast I progress. My friend tells me that surfing is like golf: it isn't a natural thing to do, but if you work real hard at it, over the course of several months to a year, you can get half-way decent at it. We'll see.

Yoga as a Martial Arts Supplement

I have been taking Tae Kwon Do for about a year now. I have lost weight, increased my agility, improved my balance, and have greatly expanded my endurance. One area that has not improved to as large as an extent, however, is my flexibility. It has improved, but nowhere near to where I would like it to be. And since martial arts is something I truly wish to excel at, I started looking at techniques that could give me an added boost in that part of my discipline.

My martial arts classes goes through some "yoga-like" stretching as a part of our general warm-up, but one of the upper belts suggested I take a "real" Yoga class to see if it would help, and recommended a Bikram studio that was only a few blocks away.

I had actually watched the Bikram bit on 60 Minutes a few months back and was already a little intrigued. For those of you not familiar with it, his technique requires you to practice in a room that is heated to about 100 degrees (aka "hot Yoga"). The idea is that the heat expands and relaxes the muscles, helping you to stretch and achieve each pose.

Figuring I had nothing to lose, I put on some shorts, a t-shirt, some sandals and headed over to the studio. I parked in a row of three electric cars, an SUV with a faded Kerry bumper sticker, and another car that had some sticker saying something about fully funding schools and raising money for a B-2 bombers with bake sales. I was in the right place.

I wandered into the studio where the instructor was setting up for the next class. I told her I wanted an introductory class, and told her why I was interested in Yoga. "Yeah, we get a lot of you guys. In fact, there will be another martial artist in this class you might want to meet." I met Mark a few minutes later, who had taken Tai Chi for 16 years and Yoga for five. We quickly bonded and I set up behind him to follow him during class in case I got lost.

I won't go through the minutiae of class, but will say that the heat wasn't that bad - it was no worse than the Texas summers I trained in as a youth, and that was in full football regalia. The dress - or undress - style in Bikram is for the men is to go shirtless, basically like you were doing Yoga on the beach.

I found that I could do about 80% of the "poses" without too much difficulty, especially the ones requiring balance, pointing to how far I have come just through martial arts. But the 20% that required flexibility - especially of the hips and hamstrings - I was pretty miserable, pointing to the areas where I already knew I needed improvement.

Overall I enjoyed the 90 minute class, which seemed to have flown by. So I think it is something I will keep as a supplement to my martial arts, maybe going once a week or so, in addition to the 4-5 Tae Kwon Do classes I take weekly.

This Sunday I am taking another class in yet another sport that I hope will help me improve my balance even more.

Are the California Schools' Problems Just Money?

Sort of a segue from the discussion in the comments section from the previous post, I watched a PBS mini-documentary last night called From First to Worst: How Proposition 13 Ruined California Schools.

I had to watch this since it would obviously tell us that throwing money at schools would miraculously make everything wonderful. But, to its credit, it didn't focus just on money, but largely blamed the political structure of how schools were funded as the root of the problem. Yes, it said that more money was needed to be thrown at the schools (and what documentary on PBS wouldn't?), but it wasn't the entire focus on the program, which is what I expected. Some surprising points that the documentary made included:

• How "equalization" of district funding was largely to blame for the decline in school quality. Instead of giving more money to "poor" districts, all equalization did was take money away from "rich" districts and bring all districts down to the poor district level, creating sort of the socialist nirvana of equal distribution of poverty instead of unequal distribution of wealth.

• Huge numbers of illegal immigrants flooding the schools

• Lack of involvement or care by parents

• How state control of curriculum from Sacramento was an unmitigated disaster. It specifically focused on how "whole word" reading programs, which replaced phonics, were largely to blame for California school rankings falling dramatically in the 90s.

So its beef with Prop 13 wasn't just that higher taxes were needed for California property owners (although they thought that would be grand), but that changes were needed to be made that allowed local control and funding of the districts. This would improve the schools and incentivize property owners to grudgingly accept higher taxes (making the point that local bonds for school construction and maintenance were passing in record numbers, but did note this largely due to a new law that lowered the "bond passage" threshold from 66% to 55%).

So while skewed towards "more money is better", it wasn't as bad as I expected.

2004 Taxes Due

For those of you who have to take multiple extensions, 2004 taxes are due Monday, Oct 17 (if the 15th is on a Saturday, they are due the next business day). I am mailing my own taxes today. I don't like to file so late, but my oil investment K-1 comes in at the last possible minute each year, meaning I have to file an estimate on April 15, then file my actual return in October.

While various bloggers are bloviating on whether Bush is a "real" conservative, I'll just point out a few details from my 2004 tax return, keeping in mind that I am considered "rich" by democrats:

Federal Taxes Paid on Adjusted Gross Income (net deductions): 20.9%
Total Allowed Deductions (mostly interest on my mortgage): 24.6% of income
Federal Taxes Paid on Gross Income: 15.9%

That seems like a fair number to pay to the feds. Maybe 0.9% too high, but I'll live with it.

Of course, that does not take into account my total income tax burden, which is something like this (on Gross income):

Federal: 15.9%
State: 5.3% (actual 2004 payment on gross income)
Soc. Sec: 6.2% (to a max, which I am over, but for simplicity will leave it all in)
Medicare: 1.5%
================
Total: 28.9%

And for this year's taxes, I'll have to tack on another 7.65% for "self employment tax"(and don't give me the "Social Security is retirement" argument. I'll never see a dime of it). So my total tax burden on my gross income for 2005 will be on the order of 35%. This is a bit lower than my previous estimate of about 50%, although that estimate is probably accurate for my "marginal tax rate", or what I am paying on my last dollar of income.

And all of this, of course, does not include what I pay in sales tax, car registration fees, use fees, phone taxes, and all the other taxes tacked on wherever the government can make them stick.

So while my overall taxes are too high, I can't really complain about the federal ones. And I have Bush to thank for that.

The Coming Death of the Movie Theater

In yesterday's future-predicting post, one of my forecasts was the death of the movie theater. My prediction was largely based on technology trends, with a little push from social trends, but the death of the movie theater may also come about just because going to a movie these days is a crappy experience.

A posting on Techdirt has over 20 negative comments about today's movie-going experience that can be summarized into a few key points:

• Impolite Patrons - This is my biggest beef: People who bring infants to the theater, talk on their cellphone or talk to each other. People seem to forget that there are other people around them who are trying to watch the movie. This comes under the category of oblivions who seem to be taking over our society and driving people away from a variety of public events.

• Commercials - In the past few years this has become THE reason I hate going to the theater. After paying a Hamilton just to get in, I believe I have right to sit down and have the MOVIE start at the designated time, not 20 minutes of commercials (although I do like watching 2-3 trailers, which was one of the items I actually liked about the movie-going experience). These days you have to sit through 7-8 commercials just to get to the previews.

• Insane Pricing - I might grudgingly pay $9 for a ticket, but I won't pay $6 for a few cents of popcorn and $4 for a few pennies of coke - especially if I can just wait three months, pay for the DVD out of my monthly Netflix rental (making it essentially "free") and pour myself a martini that has cost me about a buck for the retail ingredients.

• Theater Comfort - This is actually an area where I haven't had too much trouble, but many of the complaints are about dirty theaters and lack of leg room. Like an airplane, I do prefer if there is not a stranger elbow-to-elbow with me, but for a sold-out show I will deal with it (or not notice it since everyone around me is talking).

• Crappy Movies - The movie-going experience has come so bad, that a movie has to compel me into a theater to watch it. And guess what: most movies just aren't compelling these days. For 2005 it looks like I will end up seeing two, and only two movies in a theater: Star Wars III and Narnia. That's it. The rest just screamed "rental!".

Keep in mind that I home office and often have a few hours to kill in the middle of the day. I would like to go to a movie during the day occasionally, but all the reasons above keep me away. And if someone who is bored rather not go into a theater, I think it speaks volumes about the viability of the business.

What Is With Us Today that Will Seem Quaint in 45 Years?

In a previous post I asked those of us in our 30s and 40s (and some 20s added their 2 cents) what were some things we remember from our youth that already seem quaint.

The next step is to project those things that are normal today that will seem quaint in 2050 (and assume you'll make it that long). I'll start the list:

• Marriage was between a man and a woman - Note that I am 150% against homosexual marriage, but I think I am going to lose this one during my own lifetime.

• Marriage was between two people - If the prior one happens, polygamy happens next

• You couldn't take a pill to avoid sleeping

• Cloning humans had never been done

• Most computer and communications chips used electrons and were made of silicon

• No one's computer had a petabyte of storage

• There were two Koreas

• The only atomic bombs used to kill people were the ones dropped in WWII

• Turkey was the only democratic Muslim country in the Middle East

• People went to a "movie theater" to see a movie

• People "retired" when they got into their 60s and received money from a government program called "Social Security"

• Nevada didn't have a Pacific coastline because there was another state there (that's a joke - I hope!)

Patent Term Glossaries

Need help with a patent? Have a new invention and need to file a claim? Just nominated to the Supreme Court and need to brush up on basic law terms? Don't fear, here are some resources for looking up "Doctrine of Equivalents" or "Inducement to Infringe":

• Understanding "Patentese"

• Brown and Michaels Patent Glossary

• U.S. Patent Office Glossary

I Forgot my OWN Birthday?

Uh, Window Manager turned two on October 1, and I totally forgot.

Business Scenario II: What if You Are the "Unqualified Candidate"

Following up from my previous post on using "real life" business analogies to the Miers nomination, put yourself in the following business scenario:

• An executive you have known for years has a new senior executive opening that is definitely a step up from what you are presently doing at another company
• He asks you to take the job over other candidates in the market who have more stellar resumes
• Other people who "came up the ranks" at his company are pissed that an outsider was given a top spot over "one of their own".

Would you take the job? Would you withdraw your name from consideration? There is no "right" or "wrong" answer.

As I stated in a post at Master of None, the fact of the matter is that the business world works on connections and "who you know". For example, at my current consulting client, 4 out of the 5 VPs all worked with the CEO previously at other companies. This is why networking is so important in business and advancing your career.

So extending the analogy back to the Supreme Court nomination, it seems to me that people shouting "cronyism" are either hopelessly naive when it comes to how the world operates, or have never had to slog it out in the real world. It's one thing to not want the world to operate that way, but it is another to understand that this is how it does operate.

My New Hobby: Car Dodging

I have been taking Tae Kwon Do for nearly a year and have gotten into great shape. From a exercise standpoint, however, my classes are akin to doing windsprints for an hour: short bursts of intensive activity, the longest lasting no longer than a three minute sparring round. It has made me into a lean, mean fighting machine, but I decided I needed to add an exercise that would add stamina, which would help me even more in my martial arts development.

Jogging is the obvious choice, especially since my Black Belt exam - which isn't for at least another year and a half - has a timed 4 mile run. However, as I hate jogging, I decided that, for now, I would get into cycling.

I pulled my ten-year bike out of moth balls, aired up the tires, and took off. The good news is that there is an entrance to a great paved bike trail really close to my house: the Back Bay.

This connects to a large network of bike paths in Orange County. The bad news is that I have to ride through two blocks of traffic to get there. That might not sound like a big deal, but the second time I took the bike out, a car ran a stop sign where I was turning and had right-of-way ("I'm not getting behind a bike!"), forcing me to ditch. Fortunately I was not injured, but it made me remember how dangerous it is for bikes to share the streets with cars, like the Iraqi vet who was recently killed on his bike in San Diego.

Besides the dangers of biking, after six weeks I have made some other observations:

• Types of Bikers - On the OC bike trails I have noticed three types of bikers:
  
  1. leisure - This is the largest group, and are the people sort of meandering around, usually on one of those new beach cruisers. They sometimes are in flip-flops, may or may not be wearing a helmet, and like to stop right in the middle the trail, creating a road hazard for the other two types of bikers.
  
  2. Racers - These are the serious, hard-core people with the multi-thousand dollar bikes, multi-hundred dollar bike outfits, and usually seen in packs. They may or may not "race", but they are very serious about the sport, spend a lot of time and money doing it, and put in a lot of miles, so I think it is a good name for this bunch. My friend Jim is in this category, although up in Seattle.
  
  3. Exercisers - Located on the seriousness scale between leisure and racers, these are the smallest group since most exercisers just jog (and there are plenty of joggers on the trails). We are more intensely focused than the leisure riders, but aren't going to spend the same time and money as Racers since our focus is on burning calories and building muscle; it is only a part of our exercise regimen and not our main hobby.
  
  Due to the lack of terrain, mountain bikers, which are a whole different category, aren't seen on the trails.

• Accoutrements - I won't spend $100 on a racing jersey, but I did notice that my 10-year old equipment was hopelessly out of date, causing me to be self-conscious as I made my way along the trails. My helmet was a big bubble, and I found that I had to update to a newer, sleeker helmet just to fit in with the leisure bikers who bothered to wear them. I also did some minor updates to the bike that were very reasonable: new road tires and a new seat, which got my bike up to date at less than a tenth of the $1,000 a new bike would cost (which is the bare minimum for a decent bike these days). I already had bike pants that were in storage, so I thought I was okay in that department, but my newer, narrower build meant I had to buy new ones.
  
  While I didn't want to pay money for a racing jersey - an athletic t-shirt works just fine - I am finding that as the weather cools down that a long-sleeve biking shirt does make sense. However, I think spending over $70 is a bit ridiculous, so if someone knows a place where I can order a reasonably priced long-sleeve bike jersey, leave a note in the comments section.

• Ipods Everywhere - I, of course, am using my nano during my bike rides, making my excursions that much more enjoyable. And I see other white headphones everywhere on the bike trails. Even a few of the racers have them, although at a much lower percentage than the other two groups.

But biking is only one of my the new sports I am picking up. Next week I'll write about another sport I am starting that will force me to work on my balance.

A Headline Obviously Meant as a Pun

Turkey Reports First Bird Flu Case

"Istanbul" would have the obvious alternative that didn't make it a pun.

Which brings up a question I have always had: Do people in Turkey realize their country's English name is the same as a large, stupid bird Americans eat on one of their major holidays?

Bork Still Couldn't Get Confirmed Today

Why not re-nominate Bork to the Supreme Court? Yeah, he's old, but it will shut up the conservative elite whining about "experience", "background" and "paper trail". He's got all that in abundance.

But there's a problem: He couldn't get confirmed.

We'll assume all 45 democrats would vote against Bork. Then we have loyal republicans who voted against him the last time who are still around:

Arlen Specter - RINO - Pennsylvania

John Warner - R - Virginia

Correction from before, Lincoln Chafee - RINO - Rhode Island, is the son of John Chafee who voted against Bork. However, as the only republican who voted against force in Iraq and who did not vote for Bush in the last election, we can assume that he would vote like his Dad on Bork (Hat Tip: Rice, in the comments section).

Warner and Chafee, of course, are part of the "republican" half of The Gang of 14 who cut a deal to take the Nuclear Option off the table. And we can bet that their republican partners, Maine RINOs Olympia Snow and Susan Collins would definitely vote against Bork. Graham and Dewine would also be against, although Dewine may be strong-armed into submission if he considered the vote crucial for his 2006 election, where he potentially will have opposition to his right.

We'll give McCain the benefit of the doubt and say he would vote for Bork again after having done so the last time, although I would not consider it a strong probability if he had to do it today.

Bork's already lost at this point, but even if a couple of the Gang of 14 defect, we're still not out of hot water. We have other "Republicans" who might or might not vote against him, but are no sure bet either way:

• Chuck "Cut and Run" Hagel - Spineless - Nebraska
• George Voinovich - Metrosexual - Ohio

Hagel is already arguing against republican positions for a potential run at the center in the next presidential election and Voinovich would probably break down crying as he cast a vote against, just like he did on the Bolton vote.

So those of you who are dreamy-eyed about putting up a nominee with Bork-like credentials and a paper-trail, just keep this in mind.

Intellectual Property Protection in China (or the Lack of)

Daily Pundit had an interesting link about China's announcement to do their own High-Definition DVD format. I commented:

More likely (the Chinese standard) is a way to avoid paying royalties to Intel, MS, et al. They have every right to do this, but I'll bet you anything that whatever "standard" they cook up blatantly violates someone's patents. But since (the disks will be) created in China and meant only for China consumption, however, (there will be) no way for a U.S. court to stop the violation.

Most Chinese production today is exported to world markets. If there is a patent or licensing problem, an easy solution is to have a court stop the sale of the products in the U.S., in which case the China factory quickly resolves the problem. But when China production turns towards internal demand, guess what? U.S. companies will have to go to a China court to file their grievance. And what do you think Chinese courts are going to rule? (there is no concern in China about justices ruling against the wishes of the executive branch).

Even if the factory is a U.S. "joint venture" there will be a problem because of a little known issue outside of business legal circles: China requires all foreign Joint Ventures to be covered under China law. Period. So companies that do JVs in China are pretty much handing over the keys to their IP unless they make some other moves to prevent this from happening.

As I said in my previous post on China, I do think there are opportunities to make money there, but businesses have to be careful about what they do and how they do it. China sees itself as the "world's factory floor" today, but wants to move up the value chain into intellectual property. And the fastest way to catch up to the U.S. - which is the undisputed leader in IP creation - is to steal it. And they are setting up their legal structure and courts to support this goal.

Resume vs. Personal Recommendation

You have an important job opening that you need to fill. Failure of this person in this position has HUGE ramifications. The stakes are high. Which way would you go for your selection:

1. Someone who has a personal recommendation from someone you highly trust, but who has a resume that you consider run-of-the-mill.

2. Someone with a stellar resume, but otherwise know absolutely nothing about.

Think about this and pick one, and only one, for your important job opening. There is no "right" answer.

Now look at how you picked and your reaction to the Miers nomination. Did you choose one method but want another method for the nomination? If different, why? Would you pick one method if YOU were President, but want another if you were just an average citizen? Would you use different methods for different positions?

Describing a Venture Capitalist in Nine Easy Steps

Venture Blog stumbled upon the diagnosis for Narcissistic Personality Disorder, and it looks like all they did is describe a VC. Go read the whole list, but here are my favorites:

1) Has a grandiose sense of self-importance

4) Requires excessive admiration.

6) Is interpersonally exploitative, i.e., takes advantage of others to achieve his or her own ends.

9) Shows arrogant, haughty behaviors or attitudes

The full list accurately describes 100% of VCs and about 50% of CEOs by my book.

The Business Nominee?

I am somewhat amused by the reaction of the conservative side of the blogosphere on the latest Supreme Court nominee. What I am seeing is either a bunch of intellectual snobs lamenting that she is not some learned sage who has spent years cloistered in an ivory tower pondering the Constitution, or a version of the thought police claiming that, since she is not a sitting judge with a legal trail, she must not be "conservative enough".

Forbes claims that this she is a business candidate, and their analysis is better than any emotional blather I have seen from the blogosphere. Score one for Big Media.

The main problem with the bloggers is that they are getting tied up over two or three potential "big idea" decisions that might come up in the future: abortion, euthanasia, drug legalization, and more recently the Takings Clause. And any candidate picked - no matter who it is - is going to be analyzed on how these bloggers think they would vote on these few cases (the same is true for the left side of the blogosphere, but for them it comes down to one, and only one, issue).

But the fact of the matter is that the vast majority of cases are pretty boring to the average voter, but more interesting to business. Take a look at the list of SCOTUS 2004 rulings and one thing that jumps out is the number of companies that have a part of the pleadings: Exxon, MGM, American Trucking, Norwegian Cruise Lines, and so on. In fact, 40% of the SCOTUS cases over the last two years have involved business. That is the largest single category the Supreme Court looks at, versus the handful of emotional cases that make the news . So it seems to me that it would be a good idea to have someone with a pro-business background on the Court. And as Forbes mentions, Miers fits this description.

Some people - not all admirers of Bush - would argue that Business is as much a part of Bush's "base" as the conservatives who are currently put off by this nomination. So I think that Roberts was the pick for the Conservative part of the base and Miers the pick for the Business part of the base.

Things from My Lifetime That Already Seem Quaint

My daughter will know without me telling her that I grew up in a time before cellphones and personal computers. But it is the dozens of small, day-to-day things that people of the next generation find quaint. Here are ten off the top of my head:

1. Rotary Telephones - Someone recently told me a story about giving a rotary phone to a modern teenager, who was unable to figure out how to use it.

2. Pong, Space Invaders, Asteroids

3. Area codes covering an entire state or large metropolis.
3a. And the area codes always had a "1" or "0" in the middle.
3b. And "800" was the only toll-free prefix.
3c. And "900" and "976" prefixes didn't exist.

4. Getting up to turn the channels, and the TV only having only the Big 3 networks, PBS and 2 UHF stations.

5. Everyone actually HAD to use the Yellow Pages to get information

6. Most adults and all children didn't know how to type

7. You knew the minute you picked up a phone that the call was coming from overseas because it had horrible echoes and lots of static

8. Phones were hard-wired into the wall since there was no socket or plug for them. (This was because the phones were rented from Ma Bell and you couldn't go out and buy a phone anyway).

9. The largest retailers were Sears and Montgomery Wards. Walmart was a back water department store in some other part of the country.

10. Amazon was a jungle in South America, Ebay was piglatin for "be" and Google was a very large number.


Any others from you thirty to forty-somethings out there?

China: Understanding the Opportunities

There have been a lot of people wondering about China as a place for business. While there is money to be made, people should go into the place with their eyes wide open about what it is all about.

While China may call itself "communist", that really isn't true any more. A simple definition of communism is a totalitarian system with means of production controlled by the State. With the large number of businesses now in existence, it has become a totalitarian state with the means of production owned by non-public enterprises. In addition, the state has become glorified, with a heavy emphasis placed on nationalism, and it has embarked on a large military build-up in order to gain control in the region. What you have in China today is a classic case of fascism. And in a classic fascist society, the government will do business with private individuals and foreigners as long as it advances its causes, and in China's case this means helping them in three main areas:

• Economic Development - While people in the West see the large number of factories and shiny, towering buildings, the fact of the matter is that China has a severe unemployment problem. The Rand Corporation estimates the real unemployment rate in China is 23% of the total work force. That would be on the order of 150 million people who are unemployed. Read that number again. That is about the same number as the entire population of Japan, or the size of the entire U.S. work force. Another interesting data point in the WSJ today (paid link) is that only 5 million people (in a country of 1.1 billion) have incomes over $5,000 a year, or have any sort of disposable income.
  
  It doesn't get a lot of play over here, but this economic situation is bad enough that China has been experiencing a growing number of protests, which The Economist numbers at 74,000 last year. In fact, the Chinese Government recently issued an edict calling for the reduction in the gap between rich and poor in the country. This in a self-proclaimed "socialist paradise", mind you.
  
  So in order to maintain social stability and keep their grip on power, the Communist party needs economic development. Badly. And it will bend over backwards to get outside companies to set up factories there : tax holidays, trade credits, low wages, buildings, infrastructure, whatever you need to make a buck. Just hire some of their people and you're in.

• Control of its Population - In order to push economic development, the company needs a modern infrastructure, including internet. The problem with the internet is that it is probably the greatest invention since the printing press for spreading information and reducing government control. So the Chinese government needs help from companies willing to help it with its broadband infrastructure, but at the same time provide censorship and control.
  
  Cisco, Microsoft, Yahoo, and "Do no Evil" Google have all obliged. They recognize the vast opportunities available in China, as long as they help the government suppress it's people.

• Military Development - The third way to make money in China is to help them develop their military capability. The easiest way to do this is to sell "dual use" technologies, which our "allies" in Europe are trying desperately to do. But U.S. companies are not blameless as Loral, Hughes and others have been under congressional investigation or fined for dubious sales on the Mainland.

So opportunities exist there, just understand what you are getting into and how far you are willing to stretch your ethics in order to make a buck. In my opinion the ethical curve goes from highest to lowest in the order presented above, since it could be argued that helping people economically is a proven path to democracy, while helping China militarily will ultimately create more dissension in the region.

In a somewhat related note on China economic development, Electronics Today has started an interesting blog called The Silicon Road, which has views and news on electronics manufacturing infrastructure being set up in China.

It's October 1?!

I can't believe it's forth quarter already. What happened to the summer? What happened to the rest of the year?