The Window Manager
(Someone who has a fairly high level job with nothing to do - except look out the window).
I am in this week's Carnival - a collection of economic and business posts - with my entry on outsourcing. This week's posting was done by Hobbsonline, who did a great job of putting in excerpts from each post as well as a short summary. This took a lot of work, so if you are interested at all, go take a look.
TO: Writers, Television Show "Enterprise"
FR: Director Mitch
RE: Sloppy Writing
Gentlemen:
Since "Enterprise" takes place in the future I know that "fact checking" is not a normal part of your repertoire - everything from technological facts to history can be created out of thin air. However, please note that for episodes that go back to our "present", basic fact checking is needed!
Specifically, there were some glaring problems with this week's episode that 10 minutes of research could have resolved:
1. Blood Banks don't pay for donations - due to the AIDS epidemic, U.S. blood banks stopped paying for donations well over a decade ago. You had a scene where one of the "victims" in modern 2004 talks about the $25 dollars he received for donating blood earlier that day.
2. Blood Banks Frown on Prostitutes being Donors - Blood banks today try to screen out potential disease carriers by giving donors a standard questionnaire. Consisting of over 30 questions, they range from asking if a donor had a new tattoo in the last six months (disqualifying them from donating for half a year) to whether they have paid or received money for sex in the last 12 months (banning them from donating for one year).
In this week's show, you had a blood bank worker track down a donor who was a prostitute. While the prostitute may have lied on the screening form, or started walking the streets after waiting a year and donating, how did the blood bank worker know where to find her trying to ply her craft? Why would a prostitute donate blood in the first place? (assuming she wasn't paid for it, which takes us back to point 1).
There were several other problems, but I think these examples make my point. Please make a note of this for future episodes to ensure that it will not happen again.
Regards,
DM
Fellow Bear Flag Member Boi has a post where he lists four hypothesis of bloggers. Here are his points and my comments:
1. Bloggers are megalomaniacs - Boi's point is that anyone who believes that anyone else would want to read anything they're writing has a little bit of this. I have to agree with this to a point. I like to tell myself that blogging is my "hobby" and I do this for my own amusement, but the fact of the matter is that I make this blog public so other people can read it. And blogging wouldn't be fun if no one read it, commented on it, linked to it and posted their thoughts on their own blog on what I had to say. And dammit, what I have to say is worthwhile and people want to read it...right?
2. Bloggers are narcissistic - Boi is referring to track-backs, sitemeter statistics, TTLB status and other ways for people to "rank" their blog. For me, I don't think this is a form of narcissism, but a way to see how a blog is doing - sort of like weighing yourself to see how a diet is going or timing yourself in a marathon. If the whole point of blogging is to get people to read you (see 1 above), then you want to see how you are doing and perhaps change things to get more traffic.
3. Bloggers believe in community - I'll give him a bullseye on this. Part of the fun of blogging is that you can link, read and meet (on-line) other people who think like you do (or don't, but are still interesting to talk to). I have had a lot of fun belonging to the Bear Flag League as well as meeting other bloggers on-line.
4. Above all, bloggers are weird - Since a minority of people are blogging, by definition bloggers are outliers and are "weird". But as Rorschach commented to me, blogging is about "writing on the margin", in other words writing about things that haven't already been written about in the mainstream press and magazines or broadcast on radio and television. Those are the outlets for the "normal" people. For a blogger to be interesting, he has to be writing about what hasn't already been written about, so being "weird" would give bloggers the insight, experience, what-have-you, to write about what hasn't been already observed.
In addition, the rightward tilt of the blogosphere is because the "normal" mainstream press is left-wing. We weirdos on the right are using blogging as an outlet over frustration of not getting ourselves heard and continually having to read and listen to the slanted information of Major Media.
No, this didn't happen in Iraq, it happened in my back yard. And it is a perfect example of how California taxpayer money is being wasted by our police departments.
I have had an ongoing argument with my local police department over "appropriate use" of the police helicopter. I find nothing as more annoying than enjoying a day outside in my yard and having a low-flying helicopter come swooping in and circling for 20 minutes. And I get REALLY enraged when I am woken up in the middle of the night by a low-flying helicopter, only to find it was sent for some minor problem. If the helicopter were sent for a serious call, I wouldn't complain, but the vast majority of my inquiries over the years revealed minor issues where a helicopter has no business:
Domestic Argument - this happened today and several other times. What's a helicopter going to do? If the argument escalates and the husband decides to take a swing at the wife, or if the wife decides to grab the pistol, there isn't a lot the helicopter is going to do.
Suspicious Car - I'm serious, the police department sent a helicopter hovering over my densely populated neighborhood (like all of California) because a "suspicious" car was driving around. Thanks for waking me up, guys. It was probably someone who was lost.
Parked Teenagers - This one really pissed me off. A late-night call to send a helicopter after teenagers groping one another in a parked car?
Strange Noises - Another late-night hovering woke me up due to someone hearing strange noises. Maybe it was those parked teenagers deciding to move to a front lawn.
Most Unusual - A few blocks away is a major street with strip malls and a five-story office building. One night I called to find out why the helicopter was circling and found out there was a suicide threat at the top of the building (the helicopter actually isn't allowed to "hover" but has to circle, which brought it fairly close to my house). I asked the police department if the helicopter was going to catch him if he jumped, and all I got in reply was silence (guys on the ground ended up talking him down).
Only once did my inquiry turn up a good use of the helicopter - an assault happened at a party (i.e. a fight) and the guy took off on foot jumping people's fences. This was several miles away, but the helicopter's search pattern took it right over my house. I said thanks and hung up, but this was one time out of dozens over the past few years.
It's not like I live in a high-crime area. In fact, this area has one of the lowest crime rates in the country, and it's not because criminals are afraid of police helicopters. The bottom line is that there isn't enough crime in this area to justify a helicopter, which is why it is being sent out for minor calls. It is a waste of taxpayer money and one of the reasons why I don't cry when I hear about California police departments moaning about their funds being cut. I'm a pro law-and-order kind of guy, but when I see waste like this at my local police department, it just makes me angry.
I have exchanged letters with the police and the mayor on this matter, but this is going to be an ongoing fight that I am never going to win. The city has the funds for the helicopter and they are going to use that helicopter as an excuse to keep getting those funds - even if the helicopter isn't needed.
Those were the exact words my wife used when she heard about Bush's surprise trip to Iraq (I would like to say those words were also used later in another context, but with the mother-in-law in town...).
While Mrs. Director may be biased, I think her reaction was probably similar to millions of Americans and even non-Americans when they heard the news. I thought it was pretty cool myself.
Ofcourse, the America-hating Dean supporters were quick to denounce it.
If this article from Drudge is to be believed, well it's pretty unbelievable (and I usually take Drudge with a grain of salt until confirmed elsewhere).
Dean's brother and an Australian friend trekked into Laos as civilians -- and were captured by the Vietcong and killed.
Okay, that's pretty horrible. Two innocent civilians captured and killed by a communist regime. And in the wake of the Vietnam War's ending, the U.S. government was pretty impotent to do anything about it (just try pulling that kind of crap under our present President - you may have dead civilians, but you would end up with dead perpetrators).
His brother will receive full military honors...flag over the coffin and all!" fumes one soldier, who asked not to be named.
So some anti-war protester graduates from college and decides to see the world as a tourist and gets himself killed - and he gets a MILITARY burial?! He didn't die defending his country. He died as a tourist!
This is an insult to the men and women who die in uniform for this country. To give this sort of honor to a tourist just because his brother is a visible politician is just ridiculous (if I were killed in some foreign land by Al Queda, I would not expect nor want military honors - I am a civilian).
The article also claims that returning and identifying Dean's brother's remains were expedited over others due to political pressure. I don't doubt this at all - what's the point of being a politician like Dean if you can't bring political favors to yourself and family over the military men and women whom you hold in contempt?
I don't know about you, but I think this whole "jobless recovery" mantra is going to bite the dust - at least based on my personal experience.
I walk into the house in the late afternoon before a long weekend to catch an HR manager from a major tech company leaving me a voice mail. I pick up the phone in the middle of her message to talk to her and find out that they want to talk to me about a job. A little more exploring reveals the job is probably one rung too low, but I am going to go ahead and talk to the hiring manager next week (network! network!).
This is like the fourth unsolicited job lead in six weeks. While none of the leads are knocking my socks off (the dream: "Director Mitch, we would like you to come run our company for a gazillion dollars"), I do think they point to an increase in hiring. The employment numbers will tell the whole story, but I think they will keep going down in the coming months.
Got the mother-in-law coming into town, month-end closing at work and other general craziness, so blogging will be sparse - if at all - until normalcy returns on Monday.
Before going, I will note that my article below on Outsourcing did NOT make Instapundit's outsourcing round-up (sniff).
So we have a hot economy. Consumer confidence is way up. Unemployment has started to drop - it is down to 6.0% from 6.2% a few months ago, and will continue to drop, passing below the 6% barrier before 2Q04, and will probably be in the mid 5s by late next year.
So everyone should by happy, right?
You would think so, but there is an emotional minority that is all torn up about corporate "outsourcing". This is the situation where a company either subcontracts work overseas, or sets up its own overseas subsidiary to employ foreign workers at a fraction of the cost of U.S. workers. The two big areas that are getting a lot of press are manufacturing outsourcing to China (which has been going on for decades to the Far East) and call-center outsourcing to India (call-center outsourcing started happening a decade ago to Ireland, but didn't get a lot of negative press until it started going to India, so there is definitely a tinge of racism with the current anti-outsourcers).
In manufacturing, the fact of the matter is that the since WWII, manufacturing has fallen from nearly half of GDP to less than 30% and will continue to drop. Manufacturing outsourcing has been going on for decades and will continue as our economy matures.
Business Pundit added me to his blog roll. I read him about once a week and occasionally post in his comment section. While my postings on business are usually from the "inside looking out" (a look at internal politics, how marketing managers work, etc.), most of his postings are from the outside looking in (commentary on a Bill Gates interview, for example). He also has far fewer political postings than I do, keeping his blog almost completely business focused, where mine has entries on anything that crosses my mind.
He's a good read if you want a general business round-up and has been added to my links to the right.
A good week for my pocketbook thanks to two republican administrations:
Federal - I got my $400 check for the increase in the child tax credit. Essentially this is an early "tax refund" (yes, yes, the feds giving you your money back is not a refund, but that's what everyone calls it). So while this is simply reducing the amount of my refund in April, I am not complaining about getting it now, essentially since it went right back out into the economy to buy a Christmas present for Mrs. Director (and since she occasionally pings this site, I can't say what it is).
State - I got my bill for the car tax, due in January. Since the computers were not updated when this was printed, the "old" rate (i.e. Gray Davis increase) is what was listed on the bill: about $350. I went to the handy-dandy Caleeefornea DMV tax reduction calculator, which gave me the amount of my new (Ahnold reduction) tax bill: about $150, so a savings of $200.
So thanks to two republicans, I have $600 of additional wealth this week! (although the government taking away less of my money isn't exactly the same as increasing my wealth).
I understand politics has a lot of positioning and, well, politicking. But I am just tired of hearing the sound bites from the democratic nominees how "Iraq is just about keeping American's minds off our poor economy" and how "Tax cuts are hurting the economy".
Can they at least admit the economy is roaring back?
U.S. GDP Grows at 8.2% Pace in 3Q
The Commerce Department this morning announced that the economy grew at an astounding 8.2 percent in the third quarter of this year the fastest pace in nearly two decades and higher than previously reported. Thanks in large part to the President's pro-growth policies and tax relief, the economy is poised for sustained growth:
The 8.2 percent growth rate more than double the 3.3 percent pace registered in the second quarter represented the best showing since the first quarter of 1984, when the economy surged at a 9 percent pace. Economists were predicting third-quarter GDP would be revised up, with estimates ranging from a 7.3 percent pace to an 8 percent pace.
Okay, not REALLY fans, but I get a few emails from fellow bloggers out there and I thought some of the questions and comments would make a good blog entry, as well as provide some advertising for these bloggers.
Our first letter is from north of the border - no, not Oregon - Canada. Timothy, at Recursive Progress and I have had some email exchanges about Canadians and Americans, business and other issues (and he has a great posting on remembering people's names when you meet them). Tim and I are different in both nationality and political preferences, but we have had some great conversations. Here are a few of his questions:
Timothy: What part of CA are you in?
Mitch: I am in Orange County, which is about half-way between San Diego and Los Angeles. The area is considered the home of California conservatism - a sort of anti-San Francisco. Note that NO ONE I know has EVER called this area The OC- I have NO idea where those boneheads in LA who write this show came up with that terminology.
Timothy: You come across a little bit like a younger (and more techie) Stanley Bing
Mitch: Thanks! That is actually one of the writers I am shooting to emulate in my business entries. I didn't read him when he was in Esquire, but I am familiar with him from Fortune (which is about the only reason to buy that magazine).
Timothy: How have the people who've taken your career advice done so far?
Mitch: Tim is referring to this post, where I dispensed career advice to two young associates in my office.
Lisa hasn't taken my advice. She seems to be one of these young people who is bright, engaging and intelligent, but just can't seem to focus on setting and completing career goals. She seems a bit focused on her personal life right now, so it could be that her goal of beating the biological clock could be preventing her from focusing on her career (I have also given her advice on husband hunting, but I won't go into that here).
Elliott has taken my advice and is going for the MBA next fall, but needs to be a bit more careful. I have heard complaints from two of his subordinates that he is studying for the GMAT during work hours (remember, blogging looks like working, but having a GMAT book sitting out on your desk is pretty damning). He needs to move to some sort of on-line studying so it's not as obvious.
Timothy: (since you are in marketing), what was your route there from engineering? Strictly post-MBA?
Mitch: Actually, no. I entered into marketing straight out of undergraduate engineering. My series of senior labs convinced me I had no desire to be an engineer, even if fellow blogger Jim Carson was one of my labbies for two, or was it three, classes. (Jim? I can't remember, but I think you were my labby for Pascal, Fortran and that damn self-paced course - MASC223? - which I didn't start until the final week)
So when I interviewed, I kept to this message: "Although I have an engineering degree, I really want to work on the business side of things." It worked. Several large semiconductor companies offered me jobs in their marketing departments, and I accepted one of them. I got my MBA while working full time at this first company.
Timothy: what's your economy like in CA? in the tech sector. What's big and exciting these days
Mitch: Actually did a posting on this when my blog was just getting going. Long story short, my area of the tech market is REALLY looking good. 4Q03 is up and we have customers panicking about shortages, so they are bidding up and locking in prices. 2004 looks like a great year for us. For new markets I am looking at, I did a post here.
I plan to blog later on some items Tim and I are discussing, including Canada vs. U.S. "culture", tech outsourcing and other issues.
The next letter is from Another Rice Grad, who I gave advice to here about quitting his job.
As an update, he did quit, so more power to him. He is going to find work that matters to him, even if that means going and volunteering during this year's presidential election. It won't bring riches, but it will bring fulfillment.
Rice Grad: CES (Consumer Electronics Show) sounds kinda sounds fun. How much is registration? If I'm still unemployed in January, I might go.
Mitch: CES is free if all you're doing is walking the floor. The web site is currently down, but when it recovers you would register for free at www.cesweb.org. I actually recommend doing it at least once. It's a fun show and you will definitely find it worth while if you are at all into electronics.
Maybe there could be some sort of blogger's meeting there???
This blog, if not the same authors, are listed in two roundups:
Carnival of the Capitalists - Rorschach's write up on Product Definition made it into this week's round-up of business and economic blog entries.
Bear Flag Review - For those of you who would like to read all the Bear Flag bloggers, but don't have the time, Patterico has a summary of the BFL blogs for the week.
Blogging will be light today as I am running errands for the upcoming Thanksgiving visit of the Mother-in-Law...
I am of course talking about the 1933 prize awarded to Walter Duranty, who hid the fact of forced starvation in Ukraine by the Soviet Union in order to continue to have access to Stalin. This is probably one of the most vile episodes in U.S. journalism - a reporter denying mass atrocities in order to continue exclusive coverage to a brutal dictator.
I have wrote about this before here and here. The forced famine in Ukraine starved between 5 and 7 million people - the actual numbers will never be known.
The Pulitzer board studied revoking the prize and declined the opportunity. This is the equivalent of the Pulitzer going to a Holocaust denier and the Pulitzer board saying, "Well, it's not THAT bad he said the mass execution of millions of Jews didn't happen, and look at the access he had to Hitler!."
The Pulitzer is worthless - I would hope that maybe others would turn in their awards in protest, but I don't see that happening.
Hat Tip for the Breaking Story: Up for Anything
MOAB Tested in Florida
I would vote for Syria, but you do have to put the two remaining Axi of Evil - Iran and NK - on the short list (Syria is in the Axis of Just as Evil).
First, some background: My company is actually a wholly owned subsidiary of Global Megacorp. This means that my boss, the Imperial President, while head of this company, is the equivalent of an executive VP at the parent company, so there are actually a handful of executives above him.
Global Megacorp has been going through a purge, similar to what happened every few years in the old Soviet Union. Dozens of senior managers have been cut, divisions reshuffled, product lines combined, you name it. The rank-and-file workers have largely been spared from loosing their jobs - they mainly have been moved around or find themselves working on new assignments. Strategically, the reshuffle is probably getting the company ready for the upswing in the tech market, which we are already experiencing this quarter.
The purge started taking place in October and the word from my contacts at headquarters was that this was a Global Megacorp reshuffle only and wouldn't go down to the subsidiaries. Even if it did, I am not particularly concerned about my position since the purge is in the senior ranks and I am one rank too low. If something did happen, however, it could affect MY boss, and good or bad, a change in a boss is not something to take lightly, so I decided to poke around to see what I could find out.
So what did I hear? Two completely opposing rumors:
Rumor 1 - I make it a point to go out to lunch with my boss once a week (excuse me while I rub this brown stuff off my nose). Subtle probing ("So when is the reorg at our parent going to be complete?") indicated that a) the reorgs would be complete by the end of December and would not effect us and b) the Imperial President was not particularly concerned about them. So in light of this rumor, nothing will be changing for me.
Rumor 2 - The second rumor - and sub-rumors - go something like this: the Imperial President is moving from his present position (one says he is being promoted up to one of the top positions at the parent company, the other says he is being let go), and in his place will go Director Mike, my colleague in the sales area, as my new boss.
So which one do I believe and how do I react?
Well, I personally find certain aspects of Rumor 2 hard to believe, but corporations do not behave in a logical manner, so all rumors that have an affect on your career must be taken seriously.
So what does this mean for me? It means that I now brown-nose BOTH of the people who I might find as my boss when I come back from Christmas break. This means no change in my treatment of the Imperial President, but if he is actually being promoted UP, then that could actually be a really good break for me since it always helps to have worked directly for the Big Guy in the executive suite. If he isn't and he is still my boss in January, then nothing changes. If he is let go (which I find VERY hard to believe), then it still doesn't hurt me to treat him as I always have.
Diretor Mike and I have always had a good relationship and I respect his work and experience, but I have been a little more "helpful" to him the last few weeks, sending him last week a VERY large sales lead that I received as a cold call, being sure to spend more time having one-on-one chats with him, letting him know what I am doing (besides blogging). If he is the new president in January, then I should be in good. If he is still my peer in January, my treatment of him now will just make our working together better.
There are those of you, no doubt, who are thinking "aren't you being a bit pathetic, brown-nosing all the possible people who might be your boss?" My answer to you is "yes", but this is how the game is played in the corporate world. You can choose not to participate, but you do so at the risk of your job and career. Even when I started working at a start-up as employee number six, you would not believe the level of politics that took place while we grew to over 40 people (Rorschach can back me on this one).
The bottom line is this: big company or small, politics are the rule of the jungle and you have to play it if you want to be anywhere above a first-rung manager. Even if you are the CEO, you still answer to VCs, bankers and your board, so the bottom line is that no matter how high you climb, you got to play the game.
As I noted before, Comdex, which used to be THE high-tech trade show in North America has really fallen on hard times. Attended by over 200,000 people at its peak, it was the venue for major announcements of new products, technology trends and innovative ideas, a role now filled by the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), which is scheduled every January, also in Vegas (they have a link, but it is currently down).
Comdex, having lost the battle to CES, is now focusing on software and IT, making it less glamorous and less attended. Attendance, forecasted at 50,000 by the show's coordinators, was estimated at 30,000 by the Las Vegas convention bureau (other estimates are at 40,000). I don't know which number is correct, but I can say that it was very sparse and the number of booths were a fraction of what they used to be.
Due to the change of the show's nature, I saw no real product trends in areas I specialize in: consumer electronics, semiconductors, and wireless technologies. Those people in IT who went to the show could probably comment better than I could about announcements made in security and digital enterprise, two main themes of the show, and I recommend going to the Comdex web site if you are interested in these areas.
In short, the show was a waste for the segments I specialize in, but I saw a few things that were sort of interesting.
France has Technology?
From the post below I am obviously back from Vegas. The dice were cold, but the concoctions at the Rum Jungle were colder, allowing me to drown my monetary loss down the memory hole.
I want to thank Rorschach for posting - even if he DID do a post on a competitor to the iPod. He has guest privileges to the site and is welcome to post any time. I'm still waiting for him to do a post on doing business in Japan, but with his travel schedule that may be a while.
I will post on Comdex late this afternoon when I am able to retrieve some of my digital pictures.
BURLINGTON, Vt. - Democratic front-runner Howard Dean has called for a full stop to all foreign presidential visits after bombings in Turkey killed 27 people in the British consulate and a British bank.
Dean, a governor with no foreign policy experience and head of a state with fewer than 800,000 people pointed out, "This terrorist attack is obviously our fault, since if Bush hadn't visited England, the terrorists would have blown up someone else instead. As president, I promise never to go to Britain or any other country since it would only invite terrorist attacks on whatever nation I was visiting."
Rorschach here again, and for today's post I will review one of my new road warrior toys. (Our Director is an iPod owner, so consider this equal time.)
Full disclosure: I do not own an iPod, but I have used them from time to time, but never on a long trip. I am familiar with the new iPod features and interface details. I like the iPod. It is a revolutionary product. My interest in the DJ was driven by 1. battery life and 2. cost. Any review must unavoidably compare the Dell DJ to the iPod. I travel quite a bit (about 40% of my month). Many of those trips are flights to Japan, which are 8~10 hours. Prior to owning the DJ I made the progression through 64Mbyte flash player, CD-based RioVolt, and finally using my iPaq PDA and SD cards to carry MP3 music. My iPaq lasts about 6 hours playing MP3s and using the screen: not enough and storage is limited.
First impressions: The unit is smaller than I expected, this surprise comes from reading the iPod-o-sphere complaints about size and weight. 1 oz and a few mm has no impact on me. The unit comes with a sling holster (just like the iPod), REALLY crappy earbud headphones, a wired remote (nice), world-voltage charger (thank God), USB cable, docs and software. My unit was almost fully charged (it had the newer firmware already installed), but I dutifully plugged it in for several hours just to make sure per the manual. Upon power up, the unit is quite pretty, in a high tech way. The front and side power buttons glow a deep blue. I dare say the DellDJ is better looking than the iPod when the buttons are lit (heresy!) The same electroluminescent blue is used for the LCD backlight, and here Dell did well to blatantly rip off the iPod with nice Helvetica fonts and good sized LCD.
Here is a pic I took in low light to try and (poorly) capture the effect
“Hi everybody!” Rorschach here, guest blogger for the day at Window Manager. (Quick introduction: I’m a VP of Marketing for a silly-cone valley technology company. Shameless plug: I have my own totally unrelated photoblog about blade collecting, if you’re in to that sort of thing.) For this entry I’d like to delve into the process of product definition, specifically as it relates to the marketing department. How does one go about defining a “killer product”? At times it may seem like chaos theory, but you can actually minimize a lot of risks by following a simple process. Let me qualify all of this by stating that my experience is primarily in high technology: startups and large companies. I have an old graphic lying around that we can use as one possible model:
I am leaving for Vegas (yeah, baby) for Comdex. For those outside of tech, Comdex (originally Computer Dealers Expo) was once one of the largest trade shows in the U.S., bringing in over 150,000 visitors. The double punch of the tech meltdown and 9-11 cratered the 2001 show and it never recovered, with attendance now optimistically estimated at 50,000 (no slouch, but way off its hey-day). I'll blog on the event when I return, but not too much since there are probably 100s of other people doing the same thing.
While I am away, Rorschach has agreed to do a guest post on Tuesday. I'll return to regular blogging on Thursday.
I have written about the dubious area of Social Networking, which are web sites that allow people to post their information and then ask the people in their network to join. Those people then ask everyone in their network to join, who then ask the people in their network to join, etc. Like the movie "Seven Degrees of Separation" or the game "Six Degrees from Kevin Bacon", the theory is that you and anyone you want to find in the business world are separated by a maximum of six people.
I think this area misses the mark on what is becoming the next big thing in networking: the blogosphere.
If I get an email from some person I don't know from Linkedin, maybe I'll read it, possibly I'll respond. After all, this request is probably from someone 4 or 5 people removed from me, and it's not too different from getting a cold call. I really don't know anything about him.
On the other hand, I have helped fellow bloggers with contact leads, proofed resumes, even donated money. Although I have never met these people face-to-face, I know them better than some people I have worked with for several years. I know how they think. I know how they write. I know their political philosophy and sometimes their religious philosophy. I know their sense of humor. And if one of them sends me someone I don't know who needs something, I will trust them more than some random person off a social networking site.
I now have regular correspondence with a handful of people I have never met, and am part of a team of dozens of similar minded people who have never been in the same room. I think this whole blogging thing is what the next generation of networking is about and is another reason why venture capitalists are throwing their money down a hole with social networking.
Perhaps there is a way to combine the best aspects of blogging with the best aspects of social networking?
Another Rice Grad writes about quitting his job:
Life is too short to do something you don't enjoy. I definitely believe that, and it's a lesson I've learned from this job. I'm making myself miserable working insane hours at an inane job where I never do anything substantive. I'd rather be a risk taker or entrepreneur than a corporate climber who has to depend on superiors' favor. This is particularly true while I'm young and can afford to take risks.
He has his situation nailed. There is no question about it, but starting at the bottom and moving up the corporate ranks just sucks. It can take literally years of mind-numbing work while you network your abilities to management so you can be considered for that next promotion, or catch the shirt-tail of someone else moving up the ladder. And these years of drudgery can end with absolutely no promotion whatsoever. I know people at one tech firm that have literally held the same job in the same cube for 20 years. The people who get the promotions don't have the same experience or ability of these cube dwellers, but somehow they do the right networking and politicking.
It's hard coming to the reality that in large corporations promotions are not based on ability. In my first position I won the "most outstanding" marketing award three out of my first four years. This award was voted on by the marketing and sales organizations - my peers. Despite this recognition, I received absolutely no promotions. I then found out that after four years and three awards that I was barely making more than new-hires coming out of college.
That's when I quit to join a start-up.
That was some years ago. Two large companies and one more start-up later I am back at a megacorp spending time looking out a window, but with a comfortable title and level of pay.
So what has my experience taught me? Here are a few rules that I have observed:
1. Corporations value people outside the company more than inside the company (this is usually true, but doesn't hold for organizations like UPS that only promote from within). Generally speaking, I have found that the unknown candidate outside the company usually gets a job over promoting the internal guy who's been slogging at it for half a decade. There is something mysterious and sexy about the external guy that the internal guy just can't provide (sort of like getting a mistress after years of marriage). I think this issue is also a reason why consultants who know nothing about an organization are listened to more closely than people who know the internal workings after years of experience.
So, I have found that changing jobs and companies moves you up the corporate ladder faster than slogging your way up (exceptions: if you are the son of the chairman or a "golden child", which I will post on another date).
2. It's Okay to Toggle Between Corporate and Start-Up - I actually learned this one from an MBA professor. Keep in mind that the vast majority of start-ups fail. His advice was to get the corporate job and get your financial bearings for a few years. Then spin out to a start-up. Repeat as needed.
This particular professor was in his 60s and had been doing this strategy for decades. He had worked in all sorts of large corporations and had started dozens of companies. He had been rich and broke numerous times, but he kept at it (he finally hit the big time and quit a few years ago).
This strategy won't get you inside companies that promote from within or take a dim view of company hopping, but I have found that most large companies want that "entrepreneurial edge" and are willing to hire start-up refugees. On the other side of the coin, most start-ups are usually started by people trying to escape the corporate dungeon, so there are usually no issues getting hired there (ideally, start your own).
3. Sometimes you have to grin and bear it - Unlike Rice Grad, I am older and have a family to support, so no matter how much I can't stand my current job, I am going to keep doing it and kiss the right @#$ to keep it until something better comes along. This sort of goes hand-in-hand with observation 2 above: you are going to work in large organizations so make the best of it: Say the right things to the boss. Politic with the right people. Even if your company is like Dilbert's, don't hang around the water cooler complaining since it gets to be known who's a whiner - post anonymously on a blog instead. You really don't know how long you are going to be there, so work the job like it has to last you 20 years. This means doing things that are boring and pumping up the ego of people you don't like, but just remember that sometimes a job is about paying the mortgage and putting food on the table and not "self fulfillment".
4. Network - I have already posted on this. This will land you the next job or the next round of funding for your start-up, so make it a priority.
Good luck to Rice Grad - I hope he finds what he is looking for.
BURLINGTON, Vt. - Democratic front-runner Howard Dean has called for a full U.S. troop pull-out from Turkey after weekend bombings killed 24 people attending religious services at synagogues.
When informed that U.S. had no troops in the country, Dean, a governor with no foreign policy experience and head of a state with fewer than 800,000 people, pointed out that this was a good thing.
"All terrorists acts worldwide are the fault of the U.S., so this is our doing. We need a foreign policy that makes us popular overseas, so if this means letting dozens of innocent people be blown to pieces and allowing Israel to be driven into the sea, that's what we need to do. It's better than the current administration's fascist policy of sending in armed troops to set up democracy in Iraq."
"As president, I promise to allow tyranny to rein and to stop the export of democracy so we can set up affordable healthcare for U.S. citizens."
Carnival of the Capitalists is up. I had something like four articles I could have submitted, but I submitted only the one on Sales and Marketing.
The good professor grouped them by subject, so go on over and browse around...
As a follow-up to my post on the forced Ukrainian famine by the USSR that starved over 5 million people, there have been the following developments:
1. U.S. House Passes Resolution - Resolution 356 passed 382-0 had the following points:
a. It denounces reporter Walter Duranty - and by extension the New York Times - for "knowingly and deliberately" falsifying reports of the famine
b. It points out that many (liberal) scholars in the west denied the existence of the famine until Soviet records were made in available which outlined the "premeditated nature of the famine and its harsh enforcement"
c. Points to a U.S. commission (there's always a commission), whose 1985 report concluded that "Joseph Stalin and those around him committed genocide against Ukrainians in 1932-1933."
Note that this passed on October 20, but my guess it wasn't published in your paper. It next goes to the Senate, which (surprisingly) has both my liberal senators as co-sponsers, among others. The Russian embassy is actively lobbying against it.
2. Study Commissioned by New York Times Blasts...the New York Times - Columbia University history professor Mark von Hagen, commissioned by the New York Times to study the Walter Duranty Pulitzer, concluded that the New York Times dispatches in 1931 by Walter Duranty showed "a serious lack of balance" (see, they were doing it even back then). The Times itself reported on this on October 23 (link requires registration)
In a subsequent interview with the Ukrainian Weekly, (full article here) the professor stated:
"The lack of balance and uncritical acceptance of the Soviet self-justification for its cruel and wasteful regime was a disservice to the American readers of The New York Times and the liberal values they subscribe to..."
(Replace Soviet with Iraqi and it would sound like today...)
The report was sent to the Pulizer Board, which is studying revoking the Pulizer for Duranty, who won the award in 1932 for his reporting from the Soviet Union.
There are several epic battles that endure the eons: good and evil, God and Satan, Marketing and Sales. This battle is also referred to as "Field versus Factory" and is seen in a lot of old business sayings:
Sales Saying: "The toughest sale is the Factory"
Marketing Saying: "I wish sales would work for us instead of the customer"
Part of this issue is that there really isn't a hard/fast line between the sales and marketing functions. The line is fluid and can move depending on industry, customer, design cycle, or even between products at a single customer. This chart is a general overview showing this dynamic:
Continuing my post on justifying my existence to my boss, the Imperial President, I am now going to explain the next area of what I do, business development.
Business Development, or "biz dev" requires an understanding your product, your market, your competitors, your suppliers, your customers and everything else you learned from doing your market analysis. Once you get an understanding of where your market is heading, you can figure out what types of activities will enhance your company, hurt your competitors, grow your customer base, cut costs, and all the other things that companies try to do to maximize profits. These activities might include joint development projects (even with competitors), investments in promising technologies, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and similar sorts of strategic business moves.
While it is important to understand what activities will benefit your company, the real key to business development is networking. For doing biz dev I have talked to venture capitalists, presidents of 5-person start-ups, VPs of major public corporations, analysts, you name it. Sometimes the job consists of coming up with a business concept and knowing who to call (in order to talk to the VP of one company I called someone I once worked with who once worked at that company, who connected me to another person, who got me the secretary's name of the man I needed to talk to). Other times, people call you and you have to be prepared to act (an analyst once called me once asking if I would be interested in buying one of my competitors' divisions. "Yes" is always a good response to this kind of question, even if you're not really interested, but the important thing is that the analyst knew to call me with the opportunity).
So networking is the key to business development. And as everyone knows, networking is the key to finding a new job. Therefore, Business Development is one of the best ways to land a new and better job!
It's true. Take a look at this post here where I called up the exec VP of a company for a joint business opportunity and the call ended with him asking for my resume. Once you get up to middle management, advancement to the next rung just isn't listed on Monster.com.
So, the bottom line: if at all possible work your way into Business Development to get your name out there and network your way up in the corporate ladder. It's one of the best ways to help yourself while you help your company.
Ex-colleague Rorschach worked in this area and could also add a few comments (hint, hint).
Update: Rorschach has left some great business tips and insight in the comment section, so go read it (maybe I can talk him into being a regular contributor?). I will be expanding on some of his points tomorrow with a section on sales.
Today's Wall Street Journal has an article outlining what they believe is the democratic strategy to win next year's election. The article is available on-line for a fee and in print for a buck, so I cannot copy it here, but here is a brief outline of their main points (and as a subscriber, I encourage everyone to buy a copy):
1. Iraq War - The democrats will do all they can to insure failure in Iraq and then pin it on Bush. A recent example is their hold-up of funds for Iraq reconstruction. The more soldiers killed and the more suicide bombings, the more they will cheer. Expect congressional stalling on any plans, money, etc. that have to do with Iraq.
2. The Economy - Since the economy is heading back and even job growth has started, they are going to concentrate on the "manufacturing sector", which is shedding jobs worldwide, not just in the U.S. Expect manufacturing and "outsourcing" to be major themes even as GDP grows at more than 4% next year.
3. Character - I spit up coffee when I read this one, but the "Bush Lies" meme is going to be pushed and going to be pushed hard.
4. Get out the (Liberal) Vote - As the article states: democrats believe "the key to 2004 success is mobilizing partisans more than persuading a diminishing pool of independents." You got that? They plan to campaign hard to the left and forget the middle. The overall plan is to hold the states Gore won in the last election and win just one of the close ones.
5. Fund Raising - The dems talk a game of campaign reform and then "maneuver around the new campaign-finance law by redirecting now-banned big donations...to a new set of groups that will coordinate attacks", as seen by the multimillion dollar donations from Soros to Moveon.
Will it work? I have my doubts, mainly since I believe in the above average intelligence of the typical American voter. But as we have seen in the past, sometimes this isn't always true.
As usual, the Onion nails it. Luckily for me, I am somewhat anonymous, and I don't put a lot of personal info up here - but there are plenty who do. And since Mom seems to be, how shall I put it, wandering closer to the center as she enters old age, it's probably best if she doesn't find mine (I keep telling her that personalizing soc. sec. won't effect her, and if it did *I* would support her).
On the other hand, Another Rice Grad had his father do a guest blog entry, and I notice that Earthly Passions has his father cruising the comment sections (it's a little disjointing to see someone comment about a blog entry and sign it "Dad").
Hat tip to Blogger, of all places, which linked the story on their log-in page for blog editing.
Okay, continuing the post below, I will go into more details on each area of my job as a (window manager) marketing director.
The first area listed is Market Analysis, which consists of collecting and analyzing data - or more accurately, having a cube dweller actually collect the data and have it magically appear for analysis. A big portion of this job consists of sitting in front of the computer and visiting web sites, so it is a perfect way to hide the fact I am really blogging (clever, huh?).
Market analysis consists of collecting data from everything from the external economy to my customers' market segments. The post I did here is a perfect example. Another good analysis is a Porter Model (named after Harvard Professor Michael Porter) to understand the "five forces" impacting your market. Note that a "sixth force" - government regulation - should be considered for most industries, and should be a part of normal market intelligence.
Based on market data, Porter analysis and other tools, you can present a forecast for your company, its market share, competitive structure of the market, etc.
So you present your analysis, forecasting all sorts of good things to come to your company. Worried you're wrong? Well, don't be. Here are the key points to keep in mind for Market Analysis:
1. An organization values analysis over data collecting - in other words, if the company believes you are a good analyst, even if you're not, you're golden. Data collectors are interchangeable cogs. So move out of data collecting into analysis as soon as possible. How do you become a "great analyst"? That brings up the next point.
2. Analyses can be faked, but data cannot - You can fit data to any sort of analysis (economy is up means revenue will be rosy next year; economy is down is proof things will improve and bring rosy numbers next year). So your analysis can be anything. What should it be? That's the next point.
3. No one complains about a rosy forecast, but they do complain about bad ones - I once brought a forecast to a CEO that showed high competition, falling prices and probable consolidation in the market. The CEO said it was wrong and told me to do it again. I brought a rosy forecast showing that we would lead the market. CEO was happy, and I was deemed a good analyst. So NEVER worry that you're wrong. Why? That brings up the last point.
4. People double-check data, but they don't back-check analyses - The data has to be right, but if you forecast a rosy picture, two years later no one remembers or cares - they are worried about the forecast two years from now. Another case in point - the analysis I mentioned above where the CEO told me to redo it - three years later everything I originally forecast was correct - but it doesn't matter since that company I worked for is no longer around and that CEO is doing something else. The incorrect rosy picture is what kept me "in" with the CEO; the correct market forecast showing consolidation benefited no one, including me (there was no way to invest or buy/short stock based on my analysis).
So, the bottom line: if you analyze a rosy forecast, show it. If you forecast a horrible forecast, redo it to make it look positive. You will be judged a superior analyst and move up in the corporate world.
More sections to come tomorrow.
No, this is not a philosophical discussion like the ones they have at Heretical Ideas. This is a business imperative that all workers need to practice - making yourself invaluable to your organization, or at least seemingly invaluable to the organization.
So I was not surprised when the Imperial President called me into his chambers and asked me with a straight face: what is marketing? (I am not making this up folks, this really happened). Another way he could have asked this question is: what do you do all day? (and answering "trying to post at least two blog entries a day" would NOT be met with approval, although I am fairly sure he has no idea what a blog is).
So I will be giving a presentation to My Master on what I do, what I did in 2003 (besides starting a blog) and what my goals are for 2004. While I won't post my goals, I WILL post some material here on Marketing 101.
So the first slide here is an overview of my job responsibilities. Note that this does NOT cover everything that the marketing function handles as listed in textbook. This slide is what *I* do in this particular position in this particular company, but probably covers about 90% of marketing tasks:
I enjoy Christmas time - I enjoy the decorations, shopping for friends and family, the good mood most people are in, holiday parties and spiked eggnog. And by the time December rolls around, I even like the ubiquitous Christmas music playing in the stores and on the radio. All the decorations, music and lights take me back to Christmases past, of long-lost friends and loved ones who have passed away.
BUT, there is a time for Christmastime to start, and that's Thanksgiving weekend. I have generally come to accept Christmas decorations going up at stores as soon as the pumpkins come down, but at least the music doesn't start and the neighbors don't put up the lights until Thanksgiving.
So I was VERY disappointed this morning to be hearing Bing crooning away at White Christmas at...STARBUCKS of all places. I thought this chain wanted to be cool and hip, so was actually surprised - I usually hear my first Christmas music at some random grocery or drug store. I mean, this place usually has some eclectic selection of Jazz or something on and to hear Christmas music on NOVEMBER 12 is just annoying.
Since I don't think I can take a month and a half of Bing and company, I think I will be changing over to Diedrich for the next month.
My "official" entry in the BFL was today, so my fellow members on the right (literally and figuratively) should be adding me to their rolls over the next few days.
I should take this opportunity to a) thank the group for adding me to the team and b) shill for the group by recommending that everyone buy BFL loot. I just got my t-shirt and mug in the mail and I tell you, they will make GREAT holiday gifts for that favorite liberal on your list.
The 2004 org chart for my organization has been released and I thought I would share it with my readers:
There is a great interview posted over at Another Rice Grad with Clint Bollock, founder of the Institute for Justice, a libertarian think-tank.
Like Rice Grad I disagree with Bollock on the Iraq War (Bollock was against it and Libertarians in general were pretty split), but Bollock's main interest is school choice, an area I am interested in since all other methods of improving schools - mainly throwing money at them - have failed.
This posting is also a great example of how original content is becoming an important part of the blogosphere, taking away the traditional roles of magazines and newspapers.
Bear Flag League member Accidental Jedi is hosting this week's Carnival - a collection of business and economic postings from throughout the blogosphere. Your humble servant Director Mitch made it for the second time with my posting on Emerging Markets.
Jedi did a good job of grouping these by topic, so go browse the areas that might interest you.
From the Wall Street Journal online (story requires registration)
Billionaires George Soros and Peter Lewis pledged to donate as much as $5 million in matching funds to a MoveOn.org ad campaign that criticizes Bush, giving the liberal online-activist organization a huge boost.
George Soros likes to talk about his family's flight from the Nazis. He now supports Islamofascism worldwide by taking up their side against the "oppressive Bush regime". He compares the U.S. to Nazi Germany and promises to spend millions of his dollars (gained from impoverishing third world countries through currency speculation) against policies that aim to keep terrorists and fascist principles from taking over more and more of the Middle East.
Does anyone find this ironic? A Jew chased out of Europe by the Nazis finds wealth and success in the U.S. and now wants to support a Communist organization in stopping the fight against worldwide Islamic fundamentalism.
Update: Opionion Journal also has a great piece on Soros and his purchase of the Democratic party. Like the Democrats, Soros sees America as "the gravest threat to world freedom" and now, through his money, has a lapdog with Howard Dean. Go read it.
I am honored that Outside the Beltway (OTB) made a whole blog entry out of a comment I made in one of his posts. I wrote in his comment section about obesity being diagnosed as a disease:
Just another move to take away personal responsibility. Overweight? It's a medical condition and a part of my genes. Smoke? It's an addiction and I can't stop. Homicidal maniac? I was born that way and it's not my fault.
Nothing anybody does is their own fault any more, is it?
He then builds on my comment with some good insight:
As we finish decoding the genome, we're sure to find that there is a genetic link to virtually every human trait imaginable. We're surely not going to simply excuse dangerous conduct because some people are less able to control themselves than others;
This is good, but then we diverge in our thinking. He continues:
...but we are likely to be forced to rethink the concept of punishment if it turns out that criminal behavior is essentially a birth defect
This is the danger that we are going to face as a society: disavowing personal responsibility since certain traits are "in our genes". By going this route we make oursevles no better than animals, slaves to our instincts. It totally goes against the Western notion of Mankind being more than his base instincts; of the triumph of the spirit over base desires.
In a humorous take on this topic, Scrappleface had a great posting which Clinton maybe should have used as his defense, stating that men "lusting" after other women is determined by the occurrence of a "Y" chromosome in the human genetic pattern...Why should a man have to stay devoted to one woman alone, when in his heart he hears the Siren song of the biological imperative?"
This gives me a free pass to have an affair with that cute accounts receivable clerk. I'm sure my wife will understand. After all, it's not my fault.
Pejmanesque asks: Which school of economics do you belong to? He points you over to a Mises Institute economic quiz. This is NOT a cutsie quiz with some picture coming up at the end to post on your blog, but a bit of a serious - and long - quiz to find where you stand on economic theory.
Unlike Pejmanesque I took the short version (recommended if you're busy), but like him, I came up 70% Austrian school. Those answers not Austrian came out Chicago school.
For scoring, 100 makes you the perfect Austrian, 50 the perfect Chicagoan, 25 is Keynesian, and 0 is Howard Dean.
BURLINGTON, Vt. - Democratic front-runner Howard Dean has called for a full U.S. troop pull-out from Saudi Arabia after a weekend bombing killed 17 people at a compound housing mostly Arab foreigners in the Saudi capital.
When informed that U.S. troops pulled out of the country last April, Dean, governor of a state with fewer than 800,000 people and no foreign policy experience, pointed out that this is only a start. "Terrorism is a part of these people's culture, and who are we to judge their culture? We should allow these people to freely express themselves by blowing up and maiming others. Using U.S. troops to stop this expression is just a sign of our intolerance as a people and is why I would also pull our troops out of Iraq."
So I'm back from my MBA 10 year reunion this past weekend and had a good time. My biz school just added a new building, and the reunion consisted of a reception one evening in the new building, along with a tour (with the subtle message to please donate to help pay for this thing). A BBQ was held the next day before the big homecoming game (my MBA school is part of a larger university).
Unfortunately only about a third of the class showed up, despite the fact that probably 50% of the class is living within driving distance (four of us flew in). Those that were there included friends that I stay in contact with through calls and email and it was good to talk to them in person after not seeing them in a year or two (or three). I reconnected with a few people I was good friends with during school, but haven't seen or talked to in a decade, so that was good.
In answer to an email inquiry from one of my readers, this was not like a ten year high-school reunion, which everyone I know seems to have nightmares about (we actually talked about this at the MBA reunion, and as someone put it: a ten-year high school reunion just ends up ruining years of therapy). High school has a lot of emotional baggage, cliques and the like. My experience at biz school was that everyone was there to learn something, improve their career and get ahead and while cliques certainly existed, they were nothing like the hateful, polarizing ones in highschool (my experience at the 10 year high-school reunion was that those cliques STILL functioned, even after a decade). And since people taking their MBA ranged from their mid 20s to the early 40s, everyone acted like adults instead of kids.
While the reunion was good for seeing old friends, I wouldn't say it was good for "networking" for the following reasons:
1. Non-industry Specific - We had people there working in energy, government (lobbying as well as congressional aides), tech, medicine, banking, etc. While it is certainly interesting to hear about these industries, I just won't have a business need to call up the VP of an oil and gas exploration company since that is totally foreign to what I do or the industry I work in.
2. Regional Differences - I am on the Left Coast and most of the people there were not. So being in totally different industries and totally different parts of the country, I had nothing in common with a lot of people except we hold diplomas from the same university.
3. Different Business Models - The talk did turn to business deals, investment opportunities and the like. Those in tech talked about emerging markets (see below) and tech start-ups on the Left Coast , while those in energy talked about investing in 3-D seismic technology and drilling opportunities in the Gulf of Mexico. These two topics have nothing in common except money. The types of people, companies or venture capital that invest in each are different and how the investment done is totally different (I actually understand "third for a quarter", which is a common investment technique for oil and gas, but would bring blank stares at a tech venture capitalist).
So from a business point of view, it was a bit of a bust, but very worth it from a personal point of view. I am glad I went and will go to the 15 year - who knows what everyone will be doing in half a decade.
I am off for my MBA Ten Year Reunion (where did the time go?), so won't be blogging again until Monday. While my high school 10 year reunion was depressing and a waste of time (20th is coming up!), I expect the MBA reunion to be a good networking opportunity and a chance to see a few people in person that I see only every few years, but regularly trade emails and phone calls with.
If both my Readers find they are missing me, try a few of the links to the right, which I recently updated.
One of my jobs as a Window Manager is to look for "emerging markets". There are, I think, two basic ways to do this:
I usually do these on Monday, except when I do them on Friday, or another day of the week. This one is so cool, I just couldn't wait.
2 Militants Blow Themselves Up in Mecca
Sort of reminds me of that scene from "Monty Python and the Holy Grail" when the minstrels sing about bravely running away. These guys peacefully murder infidels and peacefully terrorize anyone who disagrees with them. I just wish they would peacefully blow themselves up without harming anyone else.
Despite the efforts of my Bear Flag League brethren and sisters listed to the right (and on the right), wack jobs who pass measures like this really give the state a bad name. The measure, which passed, reads, and this is verbatim:
"Vote for Bolinas to be a socially acknowledged nature-loving town because to like to drink the water out of the lakes to like to eat the blueberries to like the bears is not hatred to hotels and motor boats. Dakar. Temporary and way to save life, skunks and foxes (airplanes to go over the ocean) and to make it beautiful."
Okay, other issues give California a bad reputation, but this is the stuff that gets the press.
I am a pretty well-read guy, but can anyone tell me what "Dakar" is?
I have always considered myself a "free-trader". History has shown that free trade benefits all countries that participate and leads to long-term prosperity, even if it can bring short-term pain. As proof of the point, I owe my current salary to free trade and would see my present job vanish if strict protectionist policies were put in place.
Bush's signing of steel tariffs upset me as a matter of principle, but I understand why he did it: it was an olive branch to unions and steel workers in states that could swing either way in the next election: Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana and Ohio. I initially considered this political move a waste of time since no matter what he did the unions are not going to endorse him, but union members don't always vote in line with the leadership and I am not enough of a political strategist to really make this call.
I noticed today that these tariffs are up for renewal. My prediction is that they are left in place for the following reasons:
1. Bush's top priority is fighting terrorism and getting things stable in Iraq. He has shown willingness to compromise on other issues in order to get his priorities, and I agree these should be at the top.
2. The improving economy might let steel workers forget about tariffs in the long run, but on the other hand, producers who are paying higher steel prices are seeing price stability and a pick-up in demand for their products, so they will have the ability to pass on costs to the consumer. While we all end up paying for higher steel prices, an improving economy and income will mean that the $500 increase in that new car we are eyeing really won't effect our buying decision (the cost of financing is a better indicator of buying patterns in the auto industry).
3. These tariffs may become moot if struck down by the WTO, as pointed out in the article. So a savvy political move would be to sign them, get brownie points from union members, and watch it get cast aside by the WTO.
So if Bush extends these, he gets points from the union workers, but really doesn't lose the support of those who might be against tariffs on principle.
While gathering some economic data for work today, I ran across the following on how the poverty level is calculated:
Money income - Includes earnings, unemployment compensation, workers' compensation, Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, public assistance, veterans payments, survivor benefits, pension or retirement income, interest, dividends, rents, royalties, income from estates, trusts, educational assistance, alimony, child support, assistance from outside the household, and other miscellaneous sources.
Director Mitch: So far, so good.
Noncash benefits (such as food stamps and housing subsidies) do not count. (emphasis theirs)
Director Mitch: Okay, I am actually okay with this, although if someone else paid my food bill and housing, my disposable income would be, what, 30-40% more?
Excludes capital gains or losses.
Director Mitch: This means that those people with no income, but cashing out millions of dollars of stock are calculated to be "poor", but I will grant that this number will be statistically insignificant.
If a person lives with a family, add up the income of all family members. (Non-relatives, such as housemates, do not count.)
Director Mitch: WAIT. Does anyone see the problem with this? If Jenny shacks up (but doesn't marry) Bill, and Bill makes $40,000 and pays the rent, food, etc. while Jenny works part-time as a waitress, Jenny is counted in the "poor" statistics (this is a real-world example I know of, by the way). Sounds like we need to take the poverty graph and put it next to the "shack-up" graph. Taking the actual poverty graph and superimposing the "cohabitation" statistics from the Census Bureau (which was tough to find - note that I took the "Couples Living Together" and multiplied by 2 to get number of people), you get the following:
The Daily Pundit noted that CBS pulled their "mockumentary" of Reagan. As I got more and more details of this hit job, I got more and more upset. I realize not everyone was a fan of his, but to put outright lies into the script and to ignore his other accomplishments (fall of USSR happened because of what? Anyone? Anyone?) was nothing more than left-wing propaganda.
It's satisfying to see that because of negative publicity - perhaps partly due to the blogosphere - that this hit job has been pulled.
Update: Time to boycott Showtime and CBS, both owned by Viacomm. Reagan Miniseries to Air on Showtime
It's a hackneyed saying that you find jobs and get ahead through networking, but as you go through your career you find over and over again how true this is.
One of my few job responsibilities is "business development", which is a catch-all phrase that might include joint development projects, talking to competitors, investments, mergers and acquisitions (M&A), emerging market development and usually a little bit of sales. This job function can be fun and exciting in the right environment, the only problem I have is that the half dozen or so investments, acquisitions and new market development projects I have brought to top management have simply been ignored - not even a "no", which is preferable to no feedback at all.
I am currently working on an strategic investment opportunity, but decided before pitching it to senior management that I would bring a few other investors to the table to make the project more appealing.
"Coopetition" - cooperation plus competition - is a phrase used in my industry to signify a company that you sell to, buy from AND compete with. Since a lot of the companies in the high-tech arena have divisions in multiple segments, this is more common than not, especially after there is a wave of mergers, divestitures and acquisitions.
I happen to know one of the SVPs (senior vice presidents) at one of our "coopetitors" from when we were both working at other companies and I gave him a call to see if he would be interested in the opportunity I discovered. He quickly declined my offer, saying they weren't looking in that area, but then said he had a job opening that I may be a good fit for and asked for my resume.
So I call this guy with one offer and he basically counters with a potential job offer. While not a great geographic fit, I am sending my resume to him to see where it goes.
If this goes forward, the dance should take about three months, with multiple opportunities for either side to pull out, change their mind, or decide they aren't interested. With the resume forwarded today, I figure the next round should be in about three weeks when I will hear back whether they want to move to the next stage or not.
I'll update here as this moves forward.
I noted in an earlier article on the improving economy and its effect on improving the high-tech sector. Today, more data has come out backing this analysis: Semiconductor Sales Surge as Economy Sizzles
As I noted in personal correspondence with Master of None, even jobs in high-tech are coming back. While many won't see the sky-high salaries of the boom years, there will be jobs available for those that don't have them and those that already have them will have a greater sense of job security.
In the past two weeks alone I have gotten two calls from headhunters. They had positions that didn't fit me geographically or in market segment, but it's just another indicator how things are improving.
And if the S&P500 hits 10,000 (it's within striking distance now), expect some more crowing.
Okay, let's get something straight: I came of age in the 80s and love that decade. Reagan was a personal god. I wore top siders without socks, white pants and knit polos. I dated girls with big hair. And I still love that decade's music.
So when I found this 80s music test, I thought I would do pretty well. All you have is a song phrase with missing words and you have to fill in the blank. No band name. No song title. And ofcourse no melody.
I found it's HARD to come up with just the lyrics when you don't have any other information. Some of the ones that stumped me were embarrassingly easy once I knew the song or group.
Give it a try if you have time - it's 103 questions and you'll be sitting there trying to hum the tune in order to remember the words...
Actual AP Headline: Monkeys Terrorize India Workers, Tourists
Well, I knew from the headline that the AP was talking about simians since if someone had packed explosives onto himself and walked into a crowded bazaar and blew himself up the verb would have been "terrorize" in quotes or "alleged terrorist".
Unless these monkeys are taking hostages, blowing up airplanes or committing suicide bombings, it would appear that AP believes that animals being a nuisance is to "terrorize" while humans slaughtering innocents is something else.
